2023年3月入股交易活跃。截至3月29日，本月上证指数下跌1.21%，深证成指下跌1.73%，创业板指下跌2.38%。板块方面，传媒、通信、计算机本月涨幅居前。本月日均成交额9251.21亿元，北向资金净流入达289.58亿元。
　　国内消费是今年经济复苏行稳致远的关键。两会就消费、内需、地产、民生、发展等各个领域都做出了指导性意见。货币端，央行于3月10日公布社融数据，2023年2月社会融资规模增量为3.16万亿元，同比多增1.95万亿元，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加1.82万亿元，同比多增9241亿元，对实体经济的贷款规模增加，说明经济正在恢复，向好信号明显。过去三年的疫情导致中国居民储蓄率大幅上升，有助于推动今年的消费复苏，消费需求拉动经济增长，消费复苏将对消费品、医疗、交运形成利好。3月24日召开的国务院常务会议提到优化完善阶段性税费优惠政策，其相关政策预计每年超4800亿元。3月26日，在中国发展高层论坛2023年年会上，财政部部长刘昆表示，中国将加力提效，实施积极的财政政策，以营造良好的环境。
　　4月以结构性机会为主。海外方面，美联储于3月24日决定继续加息25个基点，美国金融情况不断收紧。国内方面，国内将保持稳步持续复苏的节奏。开年以来宏观数据表现良好，各项利好政策也在不断提振市场信心。消费将带动加快经济修复的节奏，支撑市场上行。4月将迎来一季报业绩密集披露期，我们认为4月受一季报业绩预期向好的驱动，市场有望震荡向上，站构性机会为主，已充分调整+有催化剂的板块是配置主要方向。投资策略应当聚焦有安全边际+一季报预期景气验证题材及个股。4月我们建议战咯性布局大消费、科技、黄金等板块里的价值股。
　　风险提示:1）美债利率超预期上行的风险;2）货币和财政政策基调转向的风险;3）地缘政治风险。
　　

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