白酒:年报陆续落地，继续看多白酒beta行情。本周白酒板块上涨2.7%，2月底3月初我们即明确行业观点看多白酒板块行情，3月以后动销逐月改善趋势较为确定，当下位置继续看多白酒beta行情。本周多家酒企相继发布年报，尽管22Q4受疫情影响较大，但是不少酒企报表仍有亮点。顺鑫农业22Q4末合同负债同比/环比变动+12.95/+22.17亿元至38.65亿元，销售收现52亿，同比增长91.42%,预收款及现金流表现亮眼。利润下滑主因房价下跌计提减值影响，预计23年地产继续大幅减值概率较低，业绩拐点已现，继续强烈推荐。临近春糖，未来随着酒企较稳健的业绩&春糖积极信号发布&商务和居民消费持续恢复，建议对白酒板块积极乐观，标的上主推“3+2”, beta标的推荐【泸州老窖，五粮液，酒鬼酒】，a标的推荐【顺鑫农业，老白干酒】。其中高端酒是贯穿全年的大逻辑，首推泸州老窖、五粮液。
　　啤酒:需求复苏带动销量增长，行业高端化逻辑延续。年后啤酒消费逐步回暖，餐饮、夜场等场景改善恢复带动啤酒现饮渠道增长。3月起行业销量进入低基数阶段，场景恢复+低基础高增长有望带动啤酒行业实现淡季不淡。本周青岛啤酒发布22年年报，华润啤酒公布22年业绩，业绩均保持较稳健增长。2022年青岛啤酒吨酒价格达到3927元/吨，华润啤酒吨酒价格达到3187元/吨，分别同比提升4.9%/5.2%，产品结构持续优化。23全年重点关注行业高端化进程、消费场景修复和成本压力演绎,建议关注具有业绩改善预期且弹性空间大的燕京啤酒以及增长确定性强的青岛啤酒、华润啤酒、重庆啤酒。
　　软饮料:消费场景恢复刺激需求复苏，包材价格迎拐点。行业角度来看，23Q1全国逐步恢复正常生产生活秩序，线下消费场景逐步恢复，全年看行业将充分受益于聚饮、送礼和出行需求的释放，基本面有望快速修复。营收端龙头农夫山泉产品推新迭代顺利、东鹏饮料全国化扩张稳步推进，未来成长潜力仍在;利润端近期PET/易拉罐/瓦楞纸价格低位盘旋，软饮料板块包材成本占比高，若包材价格继续回落将显著缓解成本压力，释放公司业绩弹性。
　　调味品:春节后动销持续改善。需求恢复加速。年后餐饮端需求加速恢复，公司出货端来看，我们预计1~2月基调、复调均有望加速增长。年内来看，我们认为调味品企业全年收入增速均有望超越22年水平。节奏方面，我们判断场景恢复先于消费力修复，B端弹性释放早于C端。建议重点关注场景修复逻辑的餐饮产业链、社区门店标的，如日辰、绝味、海天。C端有望受益于消费力修复，建议关注消费升级受益＋自身扩张加速的千禾味业。
　　乳制品:消费场景持续恢复，中长期高端化与多元化趋势不改。随着消费信心逐步修复与国民健康认知加深，常温白奶结构升级仍存在提升空间。看新品类:(1)奶酪市场持续成长，零食奶酪品类趋于丰富，佐餐奶酪渗透率持续提升，同时消费场景逐步恢复，长期看行业生态边际转好。(2）疫情催化大众对于营养的升级需求凸显,低温乳制品更新鲜营养的概念被接受,渗透率提升的同时竞争也更为多元，赛道发展空间大。
　　速冻食品:速冻行业延续高景气,B端需求修复加逮。从行业角度看，受益于场景复苏，B端需求弹性持续释放，餐饮占比高的公司收入有望边际改善。此外，预制菜板块景气度持续上行，长期疫情催化下C端预制菜已完成较好消费者教育，团餐、宴席等中小B端餐饮等预计迎来较大弹性空间，行业内公司纷纷布局预制菜赛道，BC端布局兼顾的企业业绩天花板或将更高。推荐壁垒深厚的龙头安井食品，建议关注产品渠道改革效果显著的三全食品，以及开拓小B端的千味央厨。。
　　冷冻烘焙:下游消费场景修复良好，渗透率提升空间大。22年受疫情影响流通饼房等渠道受损较严重，且原材料成本居高不下，主要烘焙企业利润出现负增长。但疫情防控优化后首轮感染高峰基本迈过，消费场景有序复苏，流通饼店客户自身修复弹性较大，同时冷冻烘焙在餐饮、商超渠道的渗透率仍有很大空间;成本端棕榈油自22年6月价格呈现下跌趋势，23年以来在较低位置盘旋，叠加产品提价影响,企业利润端表现有望改善。我们认为冷冻烘焙渗透率提升的长期逻辑依然坚固，推荐关注成熟企业的疫后修复弹性。
　　休闲食品:行业基本面持续改善。看好渠道变革带来的结构性机遇。春节以来，休闲食品终端动销表现较好。考虑春节错期因素，2-3月休闲食品销售收入有望实现高增长。后疫情时代，线下流量快速恢复，主打高性价比的零食量贩店迅速扩张。线上流量去中心化趋势为行业带来新变局，中腰部零食品类将有望受益于渠道变革。成本方面，23年以来棕榈油等原材料价格在较低位置盘旋，成本压力缓解，2023年休闲食品板块整体业绩弹性有望释放。建议关注抢先布局新业态、收入有望快速放量的企业，如与量贩店深度合作的盐津铺子、快速扩店+股权投资布局新业态的良品铺子。
　　卤制品:终端消费持续复苏。行业经营迎来拐点。2022年疫情冲击国内消费环境,卤制品企业门店经营承压，单店营收同比下滑;大宗商品价格上涨导致鸭农养殖成本提升，鸭农减产带来鸭副原

研究报告全文：TableMain-20230326Q1--0123243423523243426TableSummary789S0120522120002-xiongpengteboncomcnlijnFnUbetatWv27F23tukUtWF3Y0123FnUbetatWvU8ijF22Q4VWFj6Mku22Q44567Y129522173865F752Fa9142F300D767ABbFD23iG10nbFuk7FnF5uzmnF0F32Fbeta-F0F12F3-5uF425eg6789iF-10-15-0-20lYAaFtug6ynizBCFD2022-032022-072022-11rE5F5GY7rHIa3JtuAKLMNOPF5GMQgaMNYtuR7STSv228901iijFUBV22iuFuWXma2022iYZ3927YFUBYZ3187YFK1600600SHAB4952FGHIJmn239ik9tug6Kz5G67CDEFGHIJKLMNOabcF9dMuDEefghijkaPQF2023323gUBl2RSTU600882SHVWXYZEFabcElmrsz5GnoFpqrktustF23Q19dQF2023323BuvwGwxyzFz5GBF9itu3efgh6008722022ijrtFMMNP6GHkl-ZEFmnopQFhArs9BKFaaAB6EPET2023323FmrspqgFpqn4qHrstuvj20230313-aFVufg20230317-wxynzDEFlwHYmnFOPiDr6OPFVpQF20233196FD12MwwWMNOPaiFw5FHu9iLPWMNC22iF5GzGHQF2023317aFB6fgC6k95GDrGuFC6MNzaF9zKLOPulHz5GmnFeaEg6UzBOFvIJKLKhihH145mnaFqHFDmnKFz5GBFaEtuwp2VWKLFHhFKUFIhilPqHPtuyngGFB6OPtustF5GFB6fgmnFDrgVLMNFDGtmntFaEVWC6DpzFDFeB6DrFDrfghiFtuVDIFBC6uugqHF请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料9GHHI9qHFB6lz5GpFKhi22iVWFHI-FeqsgFuAB7aVW01234g5M67Fz5GMzF89fgFDrCHIMhi622i67F23iFOGHFuAB667MNKaEABF9CuVfglDEqHtuMmnFpHIIJgFGFDEqHH6Y67pIJKELF2-3DEqHLMNR7gaVWFAPFMggqANOPAPetuhFeQRqHMNHIF23iFqsFaF2023iDEqHxSufgMN9ThuLMNPAuFANtUVWXYPZhuHXYlHH6zmnFturk2022iVWzFHuFabHcdefKFeGegqsKFuhAiajk9z5GBH8PFaxSuWMNKzFVDrFxelmMNFegqsMnhipHuWomnF9LgqHl32Fbeta-F0F12F3uF425eg6789iF-09dMuDEefghijkagUBl5prDwiArsWaqpIFk9rBZsrsFwH9DrGu89FZstuFPuOuHk9RSTUvAZswuhuxyuFPqHqHF9GHHI9qHFB6zXKGmFIgGFk9gqHqHFDEqwx7uKLPEVWXYMDEqHF9qHqHHXYHaF9HIYFk9qHveFqHuOkhagF9wwltqH945ODE217请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料1vtk62tW821N67vqHrstu206822Z67823bWobXm924Yoomnm103kN1131N1132N1233N1234HN1235HN1336qs144VV155v156tu16716317请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料1vLtu82vqHrsYtu83324k10tub94324qHrsYtub95qHrstuYbPETTM96rskZb1071180119GAtN1110tNa1111KtAN1212tGAN1213GA1214KWo1215wN1316yN1317N1318y7N1319N1320wfABN13217N1422945N1423N1424N1425OPECN1426vUBPETN1461vrsZ862vqHZ963qHrsZmZWo1064qHrsZmWo10417请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料65vqHrstukV1566qHrsv1567vqHrstu16517请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料1-beta012345627278379A-3437BCDEF7GHIJKLMNOPQ-beta012-RSTUVWX22Q4YZKaSbcdeA0fgh22Q4ijklmknonpD12952217qrs3865qrEtuv52qknwx9142yuzvbve0OOy23KAv0SKUV34532betafgh00DEwx0CFGHDvwx037EwxdDv012UV22V22Kwx020223927r3187rkn4952023A1dGHy-01BwxM-203456789A023Q1FABCOFDEYFGHIJKLM1NdOP0QuRShTUVWXYfZ4xcPETabcdefPgh3434781inj78Dklmn1LMo-0pqrCDEGHsP0CsPoKty127ppdsPwx0uvLpqSuwPdwx22yz0rNGB-LMGC0Aq0CdYFGYFsPq0rJx-rIJG0Fvsc01xIGkFx02ZGQkWQYkL-rU0PPBsP0YFGB-LMinoudGH0y345xZOCyK617请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料By9K-uoVyBCVS3D0RSGklBBq0O022YZYK841OSKvlwx0ZC1dB-Kkwcd12267vOIJ23BKPQghsSbvdGH0vLxSZC-01NGHp-0rBDEbvK0r2-37Etudvwx0CZYCOOP-nP0C5IJLWpDdYFGp01N23B84KPQgh1mn202334--dLM0VWudOPMSj01234OP5678VW3409Q9A02022Zuo9SQQuknO56ABChD1ChCE845SFG0HIF9COOP-d0uoGHBZCGH-CJKdCE841dOL09SQMGHuM-KRSq078343432betafgh0034dGHy-01BwxM-l0N34ypG4LxOAP5QZ4hTUV0pq34T5QRqBOPSsRSq034ATUV-W5QXWYZ0P34RSGklBBq034135ONKAabc034p-dkvOPLM1234B1NGHyeefghi340934jkxClDAq2mC0Ssn34AWOxM-op1JkqXr0717请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料2-21AB-CD20612434stu300v033pct03720-3724125wxau3005617243456206Pyz9P01-20123-42683259204211907004710160000-1-007-2-034-3-045-4-5-6-51770129340560348-0WindWind1244-34v56IJ026834625934204pqU119070ys04701634v56IJN0003452z-517N-045-034-00734OIJ022EFA12434V10286902798768016826IP5Q-3592-241-1334-090W-019TI012346496r530WQ5305125Q5006I-930op-672hi-578ST-537-533TI041125678--012345-012345600573SH912021028002568SZ83816-359600702SHA1909902600132SHBC11639-241600559SHDEF3544798000995SZGH1711-133002461SZIJ911768603589SHK3L6839-090000729SZMN1332682600197SHOPQ2668-019Wind817请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料4205678--012345-012345600186SHRSTU279649300146SZVWXT20-930300858SZYZ3475530688089SH4176-672603777SHO1789530002991SZab0856-578002956SZcd01498512002719SZSTde1145-537300741SZfg82542500300791SZhiTU355-533Wind23GHIJGHKLM434M434M0s3724434-3537xPyz8PGu3001198x-04N8693xpqU5203x4876xTI2344x2422x342591xTK03jk324l10mnop4jk3240123mnop1008780526049464138373640292624232008DCG8MHIJKLNO678967CEFCABCPETTMWindWind50123q6mnrPETTMs1009080706050403020100202101820210682021118202204820220982023028G8PQ8PQDCPQJKLPQMPQPQEFCPQDCPQHIPQABCPQWind917请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料61256Bt78mnop50474445434036353335313128302626242520151050dGe8fgh8ijk8lmnopmdq8r8stuvwk8xyzjSq2022PEWind--012345Wind6718248NOPQP8NRS128Iw5LW5Q5894599-485qr55ee2049W5Q16652957N78367625I0124348ww5q056pctw--097pct-04301256u8vw8xyRSTUSTop10zzUSVW24XYU24zzw8rswrs002557SZ02049032600519SHH718004600887SHO81665-026603288SH709007600132SHBC957026000858SZ676008603866SH836013600779SHo634-024002507SZ762002603345SH0623-024ZLWindabc4401256u8vwxyRSTUSXUTop5RSTUSYUTop5zzw8rswrszzw8rswrs603027SH577056600559SHDEF285-097603589SHK3L303034300146SZVWXT611-038002557SZ02049032600887SHO81665-026603517SH0343031600779SHo634-024600132SHBC957026603345SH0623-024ZLWindabc1017请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料30123431TUVWXYZ37242965rKI2O067Y965rKI256052020221277410zknO86020232736500ml52127244ron175602436500ml5217683ron17O04807H8999E10Ers120301002080106004020-100-202018620192202062021220226201910202110-01WindWind1117请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料32UVWXYZ2022127N725430zkn850011K1212000018005004045016003010000014004002080000120035030010001060000250800040000600200150400-1020000100200-2050000-3010021009110411111206130113081403141015051512160717021709180418111906200120082103211022052212-20196201982020220204202062020820212202142021620218202222022420226202282019102019122020102020122021102021122022102022120123456--01WindWind33UVWXYZ2022127N7320zknO238001314Kxy1000009000124090000800030800001070002070000600010600008500005000040006-10400003000-203000042000-30200001000-4010000200-500-60190119031905190719091911200120032005200720092011210121032105210721092111220122032205220722092211-18061809181219031906190919122003200620092012210321062109211222032206220922120123-012-4523-678WindWind34VWXYZ20233715z399rK378O05003717Zt1268rK3710O024t1635rK3710O01203717t22053rK371056003t26836rK37105600103721svtL11550K3714O25301217请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料151652545204351531025521501-5050-10174177181184187191194197201204207211214217221224227231171018101910201021102210-012340123WindWind1718WindWind35VWXYZ2023371722z1525rKI2O41522gz3966rKI25609722z2149rKI2O25001920WindWind1317请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料36abVWYZ20233724vt3808rK3717O77303710535160rK2728O0130371023f4650rK3735617723717def3460rK3710O5723723OPEC47588rK3717562393724HPETKL7900rK37175646402122WindWind23524600055005000450040003500215216217218219221222223224225226227228229231232211021112112221022112212-WindWind25OPEC26fPET120001000080006000400020000192197191220520102132182212262211PETPET1417请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料WindWind456075845012Btzzzzz20222022z282152023032033936139111696108wlxzw320230320Tzn-012734w56wz20222022z146297802023032031591259467711395054z20222022z5341920230320441-592179825562250z20222022z483092023032278413512320674514z20222022z321729A20230322665371191759320994543z20222022z668692023032255464016146291207z20222022z94409B0C320230323124335919162099146zD88EfFG317HIJ800K8LzM8158020230324NIJOPIJ2800K8LzM8552z20222022z2548920230324118899Q211481891776z20222022116782146RST20230324-67375808-67174591ZLWindabc594601256UVWzX5YZ202303278EVWXT2023032820230330ZLWindabc1517请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料6747012zabcd321kX5lmnopq0r1hijstuevcwx4efg1hijyzzU9fzM-321qk3sA120fA120fAaa4AbppAfB120f323k0L450s2023DLL15734fDL1573gDLL15734fLwlm450Xk1573gLwlm450s0H3Kz66H3KL10Kp56KpM43202246930ZL88abc7ABOsy01617请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明行业周报食品饮料9012vY0125662022ozc202212cbcz-012-3456712t89QA-011TableRatingDescriptionBCBYNBOO674QuR420CO768PBwuR4520z8rsu44-55S5Ta-uwuU45-2CVdWdop10A8DEFBVdWdop-10X10S5zGHI500JKLMDUVdWYdop1023Z8zrkzsszab4xy4cdefFg4xyzhijkl2dmnZ67znTa4XzXl2dmniopqrslt28uVQv1wxfFgyzx7NQyqxdgbQvy4xybfwVzezVbZQv3A10Nbzqbzhl1eAeqA1h8z1717请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明