【基本面信息】
　　豆粕：3月17日-23日国内豆粕市场成交一般，周内共成交34.24万吨，较上周成交增加6.35万吨。国内需求不佳，中下游看空心态明显，成交以刚需补库为主；下周开机率预计小幅回升，且随着气温回升，成交预计将小幅增加。但中期来看，养殖利润表现不佳将始终施压消费端表现。
　　大豆：阿根廷近期降雨，但大豆产量损失已成定局，市场焦点转移至巴西。部分机构上调巴西产量预期，且近期天气良好，收榨进度明显加快，目前收割已过半，供应压力凸显；巴西升贴水不断走低、美豆出口大幅不及预期，均显示巴西供应压力的增加，短期美豆预计偏弱运行。
　　棕榈油：MPOA显示1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比减少6.03%，SGS显示1-20日马来西亚棕榈油出口环比增加30.38%。从高频数据来看，产量下滑，出口增加，3月马棕预计小幅降库；但月内环比来看，产量降幅、出口增幅不断调低，后续将步入增产周期。而出口端来看，斋月备货已过，欧洲菜油价格已低于棕榈油，不利于出口，上方压制明显。

研究报告全文：农产品期权周报期权研究2023年3月27日星期一基本面信息豆粕3月17日-23日国内豆粕市场成交一般周内共成交3424万吨较上周成交增加635万吨国内需求不佳中下游看空心态明显成交以刚需补库为主下周开机率预计小幅回升且随着气温回升成交预计将小幅增加但中期来看养殖利润表现不佳将始终施压消费端表现大豆阿根廷近期降雨但大豆产量损失已成定局市场焦点转移至巴西部分机构上调巴西产量预期且近期天气良好收榨进度明显加快目前收割已过半供应压力凸显巴西升贴水不断走低美豆出口大幅不及预期均卢品先显示巴西供应压力的增加短期美豆预计偏弱运行棕榈油MPOA显示1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比减少603SGS显示1-20日马来西亚棕榈油出口环比增加投研经理3038从高频数据来看产量下滑出口增加3月马棕预计小幅降库但月内环比来看产量降幅出口增幅不0755-23375252断调低后续将步入增产周期而出口端来看斋月备货已过欧洲菜油价格已低于棕榈油不利于出口上方压制lupxwkqhcn明显从业资格号期权行情概要F3047321标的行情农产品玉米上周连续大幅下跌跌破去年12月以来低点市场行情空头力量较强豆粕连续两周以来交易咨询号大幅下挫跌破去年10月以来低点市场行情空头情绪较浓棕榈油经过前三周以来的空头下跌而后低位弱势盘整Z0015541有所回升白糖上周以来止跌反弹回升后快速下跌而中期趋势线方向仍向上棉花维持一周多以来空头压力下弱势区间盘整截止收盘玉米C2305周跌幅244报收于2755豆粕M2305合约周跌幅598报收于3509棕榈油P2305周跌幅583报收于7298白糖SR305周涨幅093报收于6147棉花CF305周涨幅036报收于13875日均成交量上周农产品期权日均成交量除了白糖期权和棉花期权大幅减少以外其他农产品期权日均成交量不同程度的有所增加而且玉米期权和豆粕期权增加的幅度较大其中玉米期权增加1336万张至2360万张豆粕期权增加1495万张至3222万张棕榈油期权增加997万张至2071万张白糖期权减少445万张至1580万张棉花期权减少181万张至1371万张日均持仓量上周农产品豆粕期权和白糖期权日均持仓量小幅减少而其他农产品期权日均持仓量不同程度的增加其中玉米期权增加590万张至4681万张豆粕期权减少066万张至4875万张棕榈油期权增加444万张至1914万张白糖期权减少018万张至3430万张棉花期权增加062万张至3386万张隐含波动率上周农产品期权豆粕期权玉米期权和棕榈油期权隐含波动率大幅度上升而其他农产品期权隐含波动率则小幅变化截止上周五收盘玉米期权隐含波动率报收于1191豆粕期权隐含波动率报收于2120棕榈油期权隐含波动率报收于2301白糖期权隐含波动率报收于1746棉花期权隐含波动率报收于2156成交量PCR期权的成交量PCR是站在期权的买方角度看待市场的表现表示的是市场情绪指标一般认为成交量PCR越大投资者情绪越悲观成交量PCR越小投资者情绪越乐观玉米期权成交量PCR报收于228豆粕期权成交量PCR报收于144棕榈油期权成交量PCR报收于087白糖期权成交量PCR报收于080棉花期权成交量PCR小幅上升报收于108持仓量PCR一般认为期权的持仓量PCR为100时是多头和空头的分界线玉米期权持仓量PCR持续小幅下降报收于098豆粕期权持仓量PCR快速下降报收于095棕榈油期权持仓量PCR持续下降至较低水平报收于039白糖期权持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于109棉花期权持仓量PCR小幅上升报收于061结论与操作建议1棉花期权棉花CF305维持一周多以来空头压力下弱势区间盘整棉花期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR较低水平窄幅波动操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如CF2305SCF2305P13600SCF2305P13800和SCF2305C13800SCF2305C140002白糖期权白糖SR2305上周以来止跌反弹回升后快速下跌形成宽幅矩形震荡区间大幅波动而中期趋势线方向仍向上期权隐含波动率逐渐下降回落期权持仓量PCR快速上升至100以上操作建议构建看涨期权看跌期权偏多头组合策策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情极速大跌至低行权价则逐渐平仓离场如SR305SSR305P600010SSR305P610010和SSR305C620010SSR305C6300103棕榈油期权棕榈油P2305经过前三周以来的空头下跌而后低位弱势盘整有所回升期权隐含波动率快速上升持仓量PCR维持至较低水平操作建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如P2305SP2305-P-710010SP2305-P-720010和SP2305-C-730010SP2305-C-7400104玉米期权玉米C2305玉米上周连续大幅下跌跌破去年12月以来低点市场行情空头力量较强期权隐含波动率小幅上升仍在较低水平持仓量PCR小幅回落操作建议构建期权熊市价差组合策略获取方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨至低行权价则逐渐平仓离场如C2305BC2305-P-278010BC2305-P-280010和SC2305-P-270010SC2305-P-272010周市场行情概要期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅周日均成交量万增减上周日均持仓量万增减CC23052755-8100-244404916464927-1455MM23053509-19200-598810926839427-2280PP23057298-51000-583859422804606-035SRSR230561475000932976-20852642-3022CFCF230513875-25000363758-3325293-815RMRM23052786-18300-737616116373986-477数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部期权总成交与持仓周日均成交量周日均持仓量期权品种CallPut合计变化PCRCallPut合计变化PCRC8957614637723595413362116322791124016946808059031105M135741186425322166149552137221524265990487514-6621120P11060596528207133997080871297176171019142744386048SR8678871249158037-44543082154353188666343019-1856122CF7448162603137083-181440841929161456903386066200076RM42043551029714525609131676656075112841618954090数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部日市场行情概要主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日C23052760255020002766-1350-0491050102023-04-10M23053500600052003508-3950-111-100102023-04-10P230573001730015200732197501352300102023-04-10SR230561001130029506184-900-015365082023-04-06CF230513800220001180013902-5700-041270082023-04-06RM23052800370058002779-3700-131-70082023-04-06数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWC23051062124711910139601063856M2305211221262120047162518551394P2305223623522301-111195621821731SR2305182116531746012146117401183CF2305225420652156-049198121831780RM2305251826702602-035209824231773数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化C230561733140671228059178311174906098002M2305131754189581144-017178586170485095-015P230514179212370708700914204155524039-003SR23056094948760080018101934111218109-003CF2305589206364510803314767490436061-001RM23054711457062121-0125747349867087-011数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1玉米主力合约走势图300060成交量万收盘价5029004028002763003020270010260002023-02-202023-03-032022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-232023-02-282023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-24图2豆粕主力合约走势图4400200成交量万收盘价420015040001003800503600350700340002022-11-282023-03-032023-03-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-24图3白糖主力合约走势图640090成交量万收盘价61880080620070606000504058003056002010540002022-11-072023-02-102022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-24图4棉花主力合约走势图15500100成交量万收盘价15000145001389500801400060135001300040125001200020115001100002022-09-142022-10-252023-01-302023-03-032022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-24图5菜粕主力合约走势图3500120成交量万收盘价330010080310060290027760040270020250002022-09-192022-12-272023-03-242022-09-142022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-21图6棕榈油主力合约走势图9000140成交量万收盘价120850010080008075006040700020650002022-10-202022-12-142023-02-152022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-24数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部玉米期权持仓分布玉米期权持仓分布图玉米期权持仓变化图250003000200020000100015000010000-1000-20005000-30000-4000OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC玉米期权最大未平仓玉米认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价3200310030002900280027002600250024002022-09-302022-11-102022-12-142023-01-182022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-24玉米期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓玉米期权持仓量PCR玉米期权隐含波动率2003100OIPCR16180CLOSE30001602900140280012120270027630010026000802500806024002022-12-282022-09-142022-09-232022-10-112022-10-202022-10-312022-11-092022-11-182022-11-292022-12-082022-12-192023-01-092023-01-182023-02-032023-02-142023-02-232023-03-062023-03-152023-03-242022-12-082023-03-062022-09-262022-10-132022-10-252022-11-042022-11-162022-11-282022-12-202022-12-302023-01-122023-01-312023-02-102023-02-222023-03-162022-09-14IMPVMA20UPLOW豆粕期权持仓分布豆粕期权持仓分布图豆粕期权持仓变化图250004000200002000015000-200010000-40005000-60000-800027502850295030503150325033503450355036503750385039504050415042504350445045503250275028502950305031503350345035503650375038503950405041504250435044504550OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC豆粕期权最大未平仓豆粕认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价4800440040003600320028002022-11-152023-02-152022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-132023-03-162023-03-212023-03-24豆粕期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓豆粕期权持仓量PCR豆粕期权隐含波动率3404400OIPCR35CLOSE2904200302402540001902038001401535070009036001004034002022-12-282022-09-142022-09-232022-10-112022-10-202022-10-312022-11-092022-11-182022-11-292022-12-082022-12-192023-01-092023-01-182023-02-032023-02-142023-02-232023-03-062023-03-152023-03-242022-12-082023-03-062022-09-262022-10-132022-10-252022-11-042022-11-162022-11-282022-12-202022-12-302023-01-122023-01-312023-02-102023-02-222023-03-162022-09-14IMPVMA20UPLOW白糖期权持仓分布白糖期权持仓分布图白糖期权持仓变化图30000200025000150010002000050015000010000-5005000-10000-15006500490051005300550057005900610063006700690049005100530055005700590061006300650067006900OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC白糖期权最大未平仓白糖认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价6800660064006200600058005600540052002022-11-232022-12-142023-03-132022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-282023-03-032023-03-082023-03-162023-03-212023-03-24白糖期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓白糖期权持仓量PCR白糖期权隐含波动率1406450OIPCR2061880018120CLOSE6300166150100146000120801058508060570064040555002054002022-10-112022-09-142022-09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