本周甲醇盘面受宏观影响下行，外盘也相对偏弱，但是西北表现很强，基差、月差都很强，单体价格波动也不大，MTO利润进一步走阔，感受上盘面估值比较低。

研究报告全文：甲醇产业链数据周报产业链看估值偏低定性短期多配戴一帆从业资格证号F3046357投资咨询证号Z0015428本周甲醇盘面受宏观影响下行外盘也相对偏弱但是西北表现很强基差月差都很强周度产业链价格总览单体价格波动也不大MTO利润进一步走阔感受上盘面估值比较低期货合约今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌价差今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌01合约25132609-962573-601-5价差1234-2213-105合约25012575-742560-595-9价差46301652-609合约24552545-902508-539-1价差-58-646-657国内市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌南线23152320-52180135鲁南25602600-402600-40北线23502335152135215河北24952565-7024905关中23802420-40234040山西24102455-452425-15河南24552495-402600-145华南25952625-302620-25鲁北25402565-25250040太仓26002605-52680-80国际市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌CFR中国312318-6336-24CFR印度305310-5316-11CFR东南亚358753645-575376-1725FOB鹿特丹3347534325-85336-125CFR日韩355365-10369-14FOB美湾美分加仑93759875-5111-1725下游价格今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌乙烯美金950960-1087575MEG40324103-714044-12丙烯美金905930-25995-90EO7200720006700500丁二烯美金11501200-501180-30醋酸29503025-754044-1094PE8300830008200100甲醛11601170-10115010PP78007900-1008000-200二甲醚37753760153930-15501PVCNANANANANAMTBE72507400-1507050200区域价格区域价格汇总太仓价格3000450040003500250030002500200020001500100015002022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312023-02-28太仓北线关中山西河南河北鲁北广东2020202120222023北线价格鲁北价格45004500400040003500350030003000250025002000200015001500100010000220202021202220232020202120222023月差基差6505年区间6505年区间5505504505年均值5年均值4503502201基差2201-22052503502301基差2301-230515025050150-507173183092910291128122850-150-250-5091101103111301230-350-15040010005年区间5年区间8005年均值3005年均值6002205基差2002205-22092305基差2305-2309400100200011131313314300-1001111211231130229330429-200-2005年区间5年区间805505年均值5年均值402109基差2109-220135002209基差515312209-2301630730829-40150-80-120-5031331430530629729828-16003-250-200成本总述煤炭再度回归平静工艺本周上周成本环比动力煤周五煤炭港口坑口价格再度小幅回落山东煤制利润1075177524925-70内蒙煤制利润8857852221510西南天然气制利润-50-202500-30外盘天然气回归至正常区间低位震天然气河北焦炉气制利润-3772473-80荡甲醇各工艺利润汇总4002000-200-400-600-800-1000河北焦炉气利润内蒙古煤制山东煤制利润山西煤制利润西南天然气制利润04开工率甲醇全国开工率西北甲醇开工率8090857580707565706560605555201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇非一体化开工率2023甲醇日产检修预测752770262565246023552250212019052020202120222023202311202321202331202341202351外盘价格外盘结构中国CFR40060050035040030030020025010002022-11-232022-11-302022-12-072022-12-142022-12-212022-12-282023-01-042023-01-112023-01-182023-01-252023-02-012023-02-082023-02-152023-02-222023-03-012023-03-082023-03-15鹿特丹FOB美湾FOB东南亚CFR日韩CFR台湾CFR印度CFR中国CFR20192020202120222023东南亚CFR美湾FOB美分加仑60018016050014040012010030080602004010020062019202020212022202320192020202120222023到港量到港总量未来两周预计甲醇到港量56908046706036504026301620106020192020202120222023201820192020202120222023华东到港量华南到港量41203631152610211651160072019202020212022202320192020202120222023MTO开工率MTO开工率华东MTO开工率95100909085808070756070506560405530502020182019202020212022202320202021202220232023年MTO日耗加总14中原乙烯仍未重启南京一期鲁西412月或许有重启计划不确定联泓10甲醇检修但MTO不停内地几套8CTO4-5月有检修计划不过对供需影6响不大42020231120232120233120234120235120236108沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总MTO利润宁波富德综合利润浙江兴兴MTO利润1500200010001500500100050000-500-500-1000-1000-1500-1500-2000-2000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023大唐多伦MTP利润联泓MTO综合利润400050003000400020003000100002000-10001000-20000-3000-4000-100009201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023MTO投产常州富德重启成功华亭无更新23年MTO投产计划仅有一套宝丰企业甲醇需求工艺计划投产时间久泰能源180MTO2019年3月南京诚志二期180MTO2019年6月宝丰二期220MTO2019年9月吉林康奈尔90MTO2020年4月15日投产2019年总计670山东鲁西100MTO三季度逐步开车负荷提升延长中煤二期180CTO12月投产目前甲醇负荷逐步提升外采逐步缩量2020年总计2802021年总计0新疆哈密恒友广汇70MTO上游配套甲醇120万吨本项目年产20万吨聚丙烯6万吨苯乙烯目前负荷6成左右天津渤化180MTO6月中全流程打通下游配套20万吨EO45万吨EB80万吨PVC30万吨PP需要外采常州富德100MTO10月底重启成功预计维持半年以上华亭煤业60FMTP前期有试车存疑2022年总计350410宝丰三期300CTO上游宝丰三期配套240万吨甲醇下游配套2030PP40PE后续还有25EVA投产预期23年6月2023年总计300010传统下游开工率甲醇传统下游加权开工率MTBE开工率55656050555045整体传统下游复苏表现不错但454040是综合开工率提升速度近期放缓353530253020201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸开工率二甲醚开工率DMF开工率105309080952570852060751550654010553045520201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醛开工率氯化物开工率甲缩醛开工率40902535802030702515206015105010554003000112018201920202021202220232020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸醋酸价格江苏醋酸成本醋酸利润100003400700032006000800030005000280060002600400024004000300022002000200020001800100001600020192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸库存结构醋酸库存醋酸出口量252516000014000020201200001515100000101080000560000540000002000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月山东华东华北西北华中其他20192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸乙酯开工率醋酸乙烯开工率808070706050604030502040100300122019202020212022202320192020202120222023甲醛甲醛价格甲醛成本2200210020001900180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700华南华北山东201820192020202120222023甲醛利润甲醛月产量45050000035040000025030000015020000050100000-500-1502021-04-302021-05-312021-06-302021-07-312021-08-312021-09-302021-10-312021-12-312022-01-312022-03-312022-04-302022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312023-02-282022-02-282022-05-312021-11-30013201820192020202120222023甲醛月产量二甲醚河南二甲醚价格河南二甲醚成本65006500600060005500550050005000450045004000400035003500300030002500250020002000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023河南二甲醚利润LPGDME与DME开工率相关性8001724600162240015202001401318-2001216-4001114-60010120910201911202011202111202211014201820192020202120222023LPGDMEDME开工率MTBEMTBE价格MTBE成本1000085009000800075007000650060005500500045004000300035002000250020192020202120222023201820192020202120222023MTBE利润山东下游库存250012000020001100001500100010000050090000080000-50070000-1000-1500600000152018201920202021202220232020202120222023比价MAZC比价PP-3MA7060300050200040301000200201820192020202120222023-1000PEMA比价55-2000504540353020182019202020212022202325PPMA比价MAUR比价201820192020202120222023452018401635141230102508201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023016南华期货股份有限公司地址浙江省杭州市上城区富春路136号横店大厦演讲人戴一帆电话13575737718邮箱daiyifannawaacom股票简称南华期货股票代码603093南华期货微信公众号17ThankYou客服热线4008888910