【市场回顾】周二国债期货早盘走势纠结窄幅震荡，午后持续拉升涨幅扩大。
　　【资金市场】公开市场共有4810亿逆回购到期，央行开展30亿7天逆回购，当日净回笼资金4780亿元。隔夜加权利率小幅回升，但绝对水平依旧偏低，进入三月后资金面整体转松，市场情绪有所缓和。
　　【行情研判]今早开盘复苏预期出现反弹迹象，从A股市场来看，近来由于经济增长目标偏温和而受到打压的复苏预期有所升温，石油化工、煤炭等与复苏关系密切的板块领涨，而通信、计算机等题材股跌幅靠前。中午海关总署公布1-2月外贸情况，其中以美元计价的出口增速同比回落8.3%，对美出口贸易额下降15%以上，结合近期外围不确定性加大，午后权重股转头下行，A股跌幅加深的同时，债市涨幅扩大。近期债市多头情绪偏强，不建议逆势操作，后续关注数据端表现。
　　

研究报告全文：48103074780A1-28315ATFTS100125100810100745013009004596605176839157965-50958951606249524853013226734862035合约走势150000000持仓变动10150101001000000001010010090500000001005010080000001000010070-50000000995010060990010050-100000000-150000000TFTTSRHSTSTFT1000000000主力合约成交量主力合约持仓量200000000060000000080000000016000000005000000006000000004000000001200000000400000000300000000800000000200000000200000000400000000000001000000000000000000TSTFTTFTTSRHS2年期活跃券基差1020TS-TF跨品种价差1010040060100803510150500301006025040101010040200301005015100201002010001000220028200005RHS价差右元TS2306CFETF2306CFE5年期活跃券基差2TS-T跨品种价差1212101030351111101010053030090910003025080807079953020060699030150505230002220022RHS价差右元TS2306CFET2306CFE162010年期活跃券基差2TF-T跨品种价差151020102418141015102210201316101012101810051114101610001010141209995101208109901010220017220025RHS价差右元T2306CFETF2306CFE22842550271728542883-257-190-278-161-2811Y3Y5Y7Y右10Y右曲线形态272983000252882325-102782126820-20191725815-301Y3Y5Y7Y10Ybp右2023-03-062023-03-03中美利差bpbp美债10-2利差5003000040020000200001500030010000100002000005000100-10000000000-20000-5000-10000-15000中美利差RHS美债10Y国债10YDR0011227-3282772503243623DR0071825-99210417221830DR0141929-265222186367R0011329-2946397518386546R00720492135971632403R0142199-093880417629bp银存间资金价格走势资金日变动353050029230002017-500110510-100000-1500DR001DR007DR014DR021DR1MDR2MDR3MDR001DR007DR014bp右2023-03-062023-03-03千元bp质押式回购成交量资金分层120000000000000750010000000000000055008000000000000035006000000000000015004000000000000020000000000000-50000000-25002022-12-022023-01-022023-02-022023-03-02DR001R001隔夜七天