铜：美元指数小幅冲高后回落，隔夜美股收涨，铜价震荡上涨，昨日伦铜收涨0.08%至8906美元/吨，沪铜主力收至68160元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存续减975至66475吨，注销仓单占比降低，Cash/3M贴水33.5美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上海地区现货贴水缩窄至30元/吨，盘面回调下游买盘增加，国内累库节奏放缓。进出口方面，昨日铜现货进口亏损维持700元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价下滑。废铜方面，上周国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1280元/吨，废铜替代优势降低。价格层面，美国就业市场相对强劲或使得美联储维持更长时间的高利率状态，国内经济政策延续积极。元宵节后国内供需均有回升预期，供需预计小幅过剩。海外供应端干扰仍存，需求阶段回升，中国出口预计补充海外供应。总体而言，当前铜市场仍须消化过剩的供应，随着需求逐渐好转，铜价逐渐获得支撑。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：67500-68600元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230208铜美元指数小幅冲高后回落隔夜美股收涨铜价震荡上涨昨日伦铜收涨008至8906美元吨沪铜主力收至68160元吨产业层面昨日LME库存续减975至66475吨注销仓单占比降低Cash3M贴水335美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货贴水缩窄至30元吨盘面回调下游买盘增加国内累库节奏放缓进出口方面昨日铜现货进口亏损维持700元吨左右洋山铜有色金属小组溢价下滑废铜方面上周国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1280元吨废铜替代优势降低价格层面美国就业市场相对强劲或使得美联储维持更长时间的高利率状态国内经济政策延续积极吴坤金元宵节后国内供需均有回升预期供需预计小幅过剩海外供应端干扰仍存需求阶段回升中从业资格号F3036210国出口预计补充海外供应总体而言当前铜市场仍须消化过剩的供应随着需求逐渐好转铜交易咨询号Z0015924价逐渐获得支撑今日沪铜主力运行区间参考67500-68600元吨0755-23375135wkjwkqhcn铝沪铝主力合约报收19050元吨截止昨日下午三点下跌016SMM现货A00铝报均价王震宇18750元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-60铝期货仓单161048吨较前一日增加10083吨LME铝库从业资格号F3082524存392200吨减少3050吨2023年2月6日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1143万吨较上周四0755-23375132库存增加96万吨较1月30上周一库存量增加158万吨较去年2月份历史同期库存增加278万wangzywkqhcn吨沪铝预计震荡偏强运行主力合约参考运行区间18800-19400钟靖从业资格号F30352670755-23375125zhongjwkqhcn锡沪锡主力合约报收216900元吨跌幅130截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单减少177吨现为7243吨LME库存减少0吨现为3195吨长江有色锡1的平均价为216250元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收200750元吨据最新海关总署数据显示中国2022年12月份锡矿砂及其精矿进口量为21359吨折合金属6762吨环比减少1956同比增长603其中12月份从缅甸的进口量为15671吨折合金属量39175吨环比减少2876同比增加6563除缅甸外从其他国家12月合计进口量为5688吨折合金属量28445吨截至2022年12月末我国累计进口锡矿砂及其精矿243757万吨同比增长3226沪锡震荡行情预计延续主力参考运行区间210000-225000镍周二LME镍库存减12吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格涨136沪镍主力合约跌176国内基本面方面周二现货价格报214700218000元吨俄镍现货对03合约升水降至6500元吨金川镍现货升水7400元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口盈亏平衡附近短期淡季弱需求现实下国内供应边际增长过剩压力不减镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持平稳增长趋势综合来看季节性需求淡季继续影响短期镍铁和精炼镍实际基本面不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存去库需求弱现实和经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注后期国内产业链需求回升拐点和淡季产业链弱需求现实博弈对原料价格影响中期关注中国和印尼中间品和镍板新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000225000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年2月7日日频数据2023年2月8日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜7245019251730023882425139967789910834837414314092775654076576576527铝3996004550168475421633992263957565148937343546086292911025756753793932锌1647508125493229004424828453074030161722148493100257297388082547铅2022503375166912255363553834270013011301755324140757167208382556镍4867241469301424180002224104212164213049819752023年2月7日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期67221USDCNY即期673831个月美元LIBOR457503个月美元LIBOR479632023年2月8日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002023-012021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价2500002000065005300009000048000055008000020000015000430000450070000380000100001500003500330000600005000250028000050000100000230000150040000018000050030000500001300005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-042021-032021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-01铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价250000070140000350440012000030060390020000001000002505020080000340015000001504060000100290040000100000030502000024002000500000-5019001020000-1000040000-15014002021-052021-032021-042021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-01SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002021-062021-072021-022021-032021-042021-052021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-01SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-092022-112021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-122023-01铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002021-062021-072021-022021-032021-042021-052021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-01SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002000020017000180000160000150001600020000010014000010000150000120000150000500014000100000-10010000001300080000-20060000500012000500004000010000-3001100020000015000-4001000002022-032022-062022-082022-112021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-052022-072022-092022-102022-122023-01镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价5700030000060800020005200060004700025000050150040004200010002000004020003700005003200015000030270002000022000100000204000-500170006000120005000010-1000800070000010000-15002021-122022-022021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112022-012022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-01沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90060009001000400008508502000-10000800800-2000-2000750-3000-4000750-4000-6000700-5000700-8000650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价9502000105010001000100090000950-1000850-1000900-2000850-2000800-3000800-3000750-4000750-4000-5000700700-5000-6000650650-7000600-60002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-01