投资逻辑
　　眷节总览:眷节旅游恢复小超预期，持续看好高端休闲度假价格弹性，关注大众旅游恢复持续性。23年春节出行强度明显高于倡导就地过年的21、22年，本次舂节为疫情放开后第一个长假，叠加各地消费券、部分景区门票减免刺激皿小超预期(我们此前预期1023国内旅游人次恢复至19年越75%),且较19年恢复度超过春运(旅游人次89%vs春运前21天旅客人次53%)，高端休闲度假延续元旦以来需求量强劲、价格高弹性特征，印证我们此前观点、持续看好。连锁餐饮较22年恢复度较好，返乡、出游强度上升情况下假期期间二线及以下恢复度高于一线。
　　出行:春运强度高于前两年,黄金周期间一线城市本地出行强度有所下降,热门旅游、回乡二三线城市则有明显上升。23年春运前21天累计发送旅客人次近8亿、恢复至19年同期的53%，恢复度明显高于22年的29%和21年的35%。本地出行方面，北上广深为代表的部分高线城市本地出行强度与节前相比有所下滑，旅游城市如西安、苏州、重庆、长沙等显著高于节前水平，或体现今年高线城市返乡、出游意愿强。
　　酒旅:国内旅游收入恢复至19年73%、小超预期异地游占比明显回升，高端表现强劲。经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，23年春节假期全国国内旅游出游3.08亿人次/+23.1%、恢复至19年同期的88.6%。实现国内旅游收入3758.43亿元/+30%、恢复至19年同期的73.1%，客单价1220元/+3.7%、恢复至19年同期80.7%,收入、人次较19年恢复度高于此前三年春节，亦明显高于此前元旦节的35.1%、42.8%，其中人次恢复度达2021年下半年以来高点。携程、途牛、去哪儿等0TA平台显示本次春节跨省游占比明显回升,如携程平台春节跨省酒店预订占比近7成，预订量反超19年春节，途牛平台跨省游出游人次占比68%。具体景区看，峨眉山、黄山、桂林、丽江等名山大川型目的地在跨省游意愿明显增强及部分景点减免门票带动下较19年取得双位数增长,体现大众出行意愿回暖及经典目的地持续吸引力;高端休闲度假目的地延续元旦以来强劲势头,三亚、长春春运前21天三亚国内客运航班量累计恢复至19年同期108%、116%，代表公司复星旅文三亚亚特预计1月全月0CC将超97%, CM中国区丽江、桂林、安吉千岛湖等多个度假村0CC春节期间超90%;长三角周边游热度延续，乌镇、天目湖、千岛湖等景区接待量基本超过19年春节水平。主题乐园方面，宋城演艺三亚、丽江、桂林等园区已恢复营业，春节高峰期单园区演出场次达6场、高于22年春节。
　　餐饮:代表连锁餐饮品牌同店流水恢复好于元旦,二线及以下城市恢复度更高,看好节后持续修复。根据我们对代表餐饮连锁品牌数据高频追踪，春节假期全国同店流水累计恢复至22年、21年的103%、68% (元旦为81%、58%);一线/二线/三线及以下城市分别为22年的83%/109%/105%,21年的519%/67%/78%，假期期间二线及以下恢复高于一线;部分品牌如湊湊初二以后午市等位达1月高峰。我们坚定看好节后持续上修，除夕前一周(1.14-1.20)恢复至22年、21年同期113%、76%，明显好于22年体现回暖趋势，本次假期回乡、出游意愿高于往年，供给端员工回乡亦多于22年，假期后段开始恢复数据加快回暖，开工后第一天(大年初七, T+6)代表连锁餐饮品牌全国同店流水恢复至22年、21年同期122%、83%,环比大年初六+7pct、+4pct,其中一线表现更明显，分别为124%、81%,较前一日+16pct、+10pct.
　　投资建议
　　23年春节假期线下消费稳步复苏，异地出游恢复较为突出，我们建议重点关注以下三个方向: 1)高端休闲度假量确定性强、价弹性大，优先恢复，持续推荐复星旅文。2)节后大众出行恢复可持续性，休闲方面重点关注占据优质区.位(如依托热门名山大川景区)、自身项目打磨成熟、管理能力强的文旅公司，如宋城演艺:商旅方面重点关注会员体系粘性强，品牌力、产品力综合较优的连锁酒店，推荐华住集团。3)节后本地社交需求持续修复(尤其是商圈品牌),餐饮回归品牌化成长路径，推荐修复弹性+成长性兼备的呷哺呷哺、九毛九。
　　风险提示
　　疫情修复持续时间或存在不确定性，原材料价格上涨，劳动力短缺风险，数据统计结果与实际情况偏差风险等。
　　

研究报告全文：2023年01月29日买入维持评级社会服务业行业研究行业专题研究报告证券研究报告国金证券研究所分析师苏晨执业S1130522010001联系人叶思嘉suchengjzqcomcnyesijiagjzqcomcn春节旅游恢复小超预期重点关注节后出行链三大机会-01234567890AB12CDEFGHI9JK5LMNOPQFRDSDDF0TUVWXYZ0abPcdeSfghijklmno0AB9-pqrstuDEvwxUyzF0zF9-QpxUztDxUE0567892IS50qrstS1234CDDF940SGI9X95LCGHI95LtF0TPGHI90jSJKCDEFtDxUSyzFRE09JK5LDDFRDzDFRECTPGH0VRfg5TPGHI9t0SSSK5Lt0F5SGICvwyzFES-PJK056ICf0DEFvvwGExUDESyzFRCvwEEESyzFRE0DDESyzF0SxUzF95LstF0JK5LstRESD0xU9DDFF5CSSKTUJK00-zF0GxUChi30SSS-A0RP1JK2Ifghlmjk34zF567820ABGH90RP12567890RP2I0AStDAvwBCyzFS0DEFAAGGHHI-z0HJviSSKSLMNO9PHH-zQR920STS0NSLMNhiUVWT-QzFCXYZ0ASSia05biGcUcS5LDDFCdef4L09g503412hCiqrjde5klm0vfyDDFSDFRESpVSgnVDDFREz0DFR05Lfgdeoopq8G5bCqrrs3412h0tutpvDyDDFSDFES0JK4LDDF9w0TUSG5LxF0yz6OLDDF0Za90ZpAFp0devfyDDFSDFDDSE0AFpS0gJK0gnVDS0tSCDEFcd0PGVG0qr56789sISA0012FCDABGH12078i8pj-AhiS0SIRDE0I0deSdR0CETP12hpde0de0hRSCWXh121s0040XCS-0GHADSGHI95LDSDDFES-0PJK056ISg4034TP12hpxUD9pDzEDpxUpxUpxUBpxUDpxUpxUzP9pDz09pDz0vvwBC9pDzDvvBC9pDzEDDEvwJKvwfghifABC-QzFpDzBC-QzFpDzBCUzFpDzzjBCyzFpDzzzLXGcUpgyDDEDzDGcUpgyDDEDDDDEvwFbDDcddgd2DEG2DGzF2DDvfI9pDDDDvfI9pDDDDDdeapgyDDEDDDawDDzf9pDDDDEf9pDDDEgf9pDDDEEDgf9pDDEEEv5b8pgyDDEDEEv5b8pgyDDEDEEvq5b8pgyDDEDEvq5b8pgyDDEDE5b8pgyDDEDE5b8pgyDDEDEz5b8pgyDDED5b8pgyDDED5b8pgyDDEDD5b8pgyDDEDE5b8pgyDDED5b8pgyDDEDE1iqrRDDEF99ws00DDEF0qrV1WsYXGHcdIsRWT0UV0TPcdLPcd00GgOCRgS-6JK0X1IcSX23GA44035637a89sgISRRChUSa8S23HABCD0gEha8sFC-01234567890AB12CDEFGHI9JK5LMNOPQFRDSDDF0TUVWXYZ0abPcdeSfghijklmno0AB9-pqrstuDEvwxUyzF0zF9-QpxUztDxUE0567892IS50qrstS1234CDDF940SGI9X95LCDEFcd0PGVG0qr56789sISA0012FCDABGH12078i8pj-AhiS0SIRDE0I0deSdR0SGCETP12h0de0hRSC22122tDxUHyDzFRECDDEVRDDEFZI0ifpgJKL0DDEFfHVDzxU02zz0MDzFRECtDpDDENDvOzDxUS0yDzFDz0gB30DBgnzzDxU0EzDSyDzFEEECD0v5DfDzDPU0QfDzPU020DzF2ED0DDDF2DzCpxUD9pDz2019202120222023较19年春运恢复度120006052910000508000403542916000304000202000100020212022T-9T-7T-5T-3T-1T1T3T5T7T92023前21天T-15T-13T-11T11T13T15T17T19T21T23-0123456789ABCC-0123456789CEDpxUpxU20192021202220232019202120222023100002509000800020070006000150500040001003000200050100000T-9T-7T-5T-3T-1T-9T-7T-5T-3T-1T1T3T5T7T9T1T3T5T7T9T-15T-13T-11T-15T-13T-11T11T13T15T17T19T21T23T11T13T15T17T19T21T23-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCC-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCpxUBpxU2019202120222023201920212022202316002501400200120010001508006001004005020000T-9T-7T-5T-3T-1T-9T-7T-5T-3T-1T1T3T5T7T9T1T3T5T7T9T-15T-13T-11T-15T-13T-11T11T13T15T17T19T21T23T11T13T15T17T19T21T23-0123456789ABCC-0123456789ABCDpxUpxU20192021202220232019202120222023100002509000800020070006000150500040001003000200050100000T-9T-7T-5T-3T-1T-9T-7T-5T-3T-1T1T3T5T7T9T1T3T5T7T9T-15T-13T-11T-15T-13T-11T11T13T15T17T19T21T23T11T13T15T17T19T21T23-0123456789ABCC-0123456789ABCTPGH0fg5TPGHI9t0SSSJK5LtCRtuyAFpSPt9TU09tI9VW8R90FQFI9g5TPXRS2aCfgjYjPLJK05bVDzFE0ZVDzFEN05bVDzFE0RAFpZzF9ptpDKCzP9pDz0上海北京广州深圳成都南京武汉西安苏州郑州重庆长沙合肥石家庄昆明厦门南宁东莞2023-01-27T583767911212981111126196128139354NANANANANANA2023-01-26T488718011412286108125224147132374143122127263125632023-01-25T375637210512081113126209154132404140129125216134592023-01-24T2785969971098210513422413611640014912397222129512023-01-23T14861701071085286119119143110209121119121206119542023-01-22T05463701111005777112134143103210130121113177137472023-01-21T-1616373941086081112141132141228139105109251120522023-01-20T-28880821131287891113126126108213146120111279126642023-01-19T-38682831151447491118114126112252153116113317130712023-01-18T-48176801151397087110109125109261154110107344130672023-01-17T-58474791151387288112116128102263168111108358133652023-01-16T-67872791051407091118110136105243178111110360134662023-01-15T-7383658799544649080126761921419488237113622023-01-14T-841396489100416590751158520012711287280112652023-01-13T-9115123871411878298114103132118273172119114356129602023-01-12T-1010610578129168718710310411811125615510110135111358-JKLM34567892NOPQRSTUVWXY3ZQRSTUVWXYaUVRbcdefABghiejC9pDz0哈尔哈尔呼和石家乌鲁北京上海广州深圳成都东莞杭州合肥南京宁波青岛苏州天津武汉西安长沙郑州重庆保定桂林济南兰州南昌三亚厦门沈阳太原西宁滨滨浩特庄木齐2023-01-27T510010210010110610310198106100102104103100921068510210210199101961091019810610210410199102992023-01-26T499104991001031021019610110010210410310399104103999810210110298100103991001039910199102982023-01-25T399103989910210110283961011021021021059910410498981019910197102101991031011001009998982023-01-24T298103991001031011011011071001011041021041011041039997100991009899100991081031001009999982023-01-23T110110499100102102999510297921051021041009810398961029910299991011021021039910899105982023-01-22T09910599101103102103971039998105102104971031029797106101106981009910410110410011299118972023-01-21T-19810398101102101101919610299991021071031031031009710710210798102100999810199100100114952023-01-20T-210010410010110310210110110410210310510410610410610510296107102107981021039910610110010110296992023-01-19T-3102106106103104102103981081031051061041111061091051021009910099971041059411210110011310495972023-01-18T-41151081031031071021069510810310410611011712011310495108961019695105103991189811110110391992023-01-17T-510810410610410610210492109102911041131151091131021011089698969210910595114101106103105104992023-01-16T-61251121071051121031109211210510711111710811811396104118961059693118113101117104123109112105992023-01-15T-784889595105102938693958694921001019597829980928084869478102901018196100922023-01-14T-885919510210410594758993869493811059014378998091808290100821038910877106115872023-01-13T-91301471281331291141221281321201281371291481391441171331221071061071011321141121181201171291181221102023-01-12T-10129123119117118108107106125111118117133139112134104112114102106102101119111104113107104130109124103-JKLM3456789bcdefABghiejCBCU30tDpDDENDDEDvvwBCyDzFz05L9pEvBC310tDyDzFCvvwBC9pDzDvvBC9pDz-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCC-45DEF-GHI3456789ABC3DEFvwSxUgnyzFESz0xUDFF5Cf0DDEFvvwGExUDESyDzFRCvwEEESyDzFRE0DDESyDzF0SxUzF95LstFpDDNDDD0JK5LstRESD0xU9DDFF5CjklmScdeABc9Ca0mdZYbhiDc0vbhiRz0DcbhiHmkCdefDcbhi0ghijSklmiSnhiEcbhiGmjko4pbqrDsLYtcdeShijklmdSwuPvr0VcdwyxytzCPJK90inLWXRSTPXNCiDDEDCRDDEF000-DzFCK0GxU0svRGH0g-QRsRGHCK0TUxGHDDDF2aDCEDDEvwJK国内出游人次2019国内旅游收入2019客单价2019140120100806040200春节清明五一端午国庆春节清明五一端午中秋国庆春节清明五一端午中秋国庆元旦春节2020202020202020202020212021202120212021202120222022202220222022202220232023-kl23456789Chi3Sfg-Ahi1JK2Ifghlmjk34zF56782Chi0hiOUVx0DzF2DECDhiUVDxU0DDDF2E0DzF2ECEii0DDEFOUVExU0DDDF2z0DzF2cdEx0DDDF20DzF2CDzDxU0QxUCD0tUVEx0EE0tUVUDzFUVtGDyDEUVxUEDDCDS567890RP2ICAAD0GDyDE0AbhihOUVxU0hipUVzxUSV0UALXhiSgnVSExUCVC0RfF5bC0DDEFtpGDyDAcMm0zF2DEC1zCDGD0hiOUVzxS2EECv9i09ipcSHdDDDF2E0-DzF09iDDFZafS7bCDE0FU0HJvi9P50HJHHz0HJHH-0KLMN9PzHH0ASACS9PHH-QCAAZF120GzyE2DDU0GGHHI-Qz0Za5CESQR290STS0NSLMNCSTyGD0SThiUV-SWTyDzF0hi-DzFCD0N0zcbdhiOUVzDExU00DzFgn2DS00NSSpNS5hi5CELMNi0OUVNzx0DzF2Ez0hiUV502A0DFzExR5Fb9UVxU0Dzz0-F0pyp-zCD5xU0txU2-D0vXY97OUVDU02zCvwfghif景区统计时间客流量万人次较22年增速较19年增速相关上市公司黄山春节假期121127142-1236黄山旅游宋城峨眉山春节假期12112727838153681峨眉山A上海海昌海洋公园春节假期1211272195-海昌海洋公园乌镇春节假期截至12410-基本持平中青旅千岛湖春节假期121127961-3090复星旅文千岛湖CM常州市春节假期12112711923-1727天目湖丽江市春节假期截至12513611-前五天与19年七天持平云南旅游复星旅文丽丽江古城春节假期截至12344631242-江复游城宋城演艺玉龙雪山春节假期截至12485丽江千古情桂林旅游复星旅文桂桂林市春节假期1211273758077897084林CM宋城演艺长白山复星旅文长长白山124大年初三06637513白山CM长白山万达国际度假区春节假期121127-7030中国中免复星旅文三三亚景区合计12012360143672-亚亚特等南山度假区1201231419首旅酒店三亚千古情景区120123614宋城演艺海昌梦幻不夜城120123530海昌海洋公园-mnopq3mWkl23456789CRj0RPc30ASSpJ7SjvwBCGyGDgnyDzFR0MS560RPVICABC-QzFpDzBC-QzFpDz-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCC-45DEF-GHI3456789rstuvwxyzD3ABCBCUzFpDzjBCyzFpDz-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCC-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCXYZ0fgiZ0pttuGcU1Dc05bVAFpS0cUDU0ALXEZ0AFpNprc05LDDF0SLXAFpNpgnrNcSENc05LDDFCzLXGcUpgyDDED-O345DEF-GHI3456789CzDGcUpgyDDED-O345DEF-GHI3456789CG0G20wPSk2-0pA50R2-EE0dTUCDDDEvwFb-3456789C4DDFWX0DGYZ5bJK034DEFWXSI4CDDDFvD0EzvE08vzDGGDvptvz0vptv08Dvptv09ULdSCDG22Scdw0DESGAz0DzF2VvEptv0212A0LAXbPWX5bMNwf0DG2WLdeX10f95LRSichCDDcddgd2当月增速年度增速环比变动2022-122022-112022-102022-09同比变动较19年变动2022202120202019社零总额41-18-59-0525-12778-02125-3980城镇42-18-60-0625-12883-03125-4079乡村39-13-520223-121-1700121-3290社零总额商品零售55-01-560530-1138505118-2379餐饮收入-57-141-84-81-17-249-59-63186-16694汽车以外消费品35-26-61-0912-13358-04129-4190限额以上消费品45-13-58-0561-12015514134-1939限额以上限额以上商品零售55-02-570066-10915719128-1037限额以上餐饮收入-103-178-75-7701-294128-59235-14071粮油食品66105398385-212858710899102烟酒-53-73-20-07-88-189289232125474饮料11755-624149-15144053204140104必选纺织服装31-125-156-75-05-192-38-65127-6629日用品-01-92-91-2256-151229-0714475139中西药品31539883899325136124997890化妆品-147-193-46-37-31-185315-4514095126金银珠宝-114-184-70-2719-309157-11298-4704家电42-131-173-141-61-139-27-39100-3856文化办公用品14-03-17-2187-144375441885833可选家具-18-58-40-66-73-220-170-75145-7051通讯器材131-45-176-8958-180299-3414612985石油及制品-13-29-1609102-11514897212-14512建筑及装潢材料11-89-100-87-81-266-73-62204-2828汽车8846-4239142-691620776-18-08-JKLM3456789fD3djCDEG2DGzF2社零餐饮当月销售额亿元社零餐饮社零餐饮YOY社零整体YOY1000010020800015501060005040000-5-502000-10-152021M32021M42021M52021M62021M72021M82021M92022M32022M42022M52022M62022M72022M82022M90-1002021M102021M112021M122022M102022M112022M12-202021M1-22022M1-2-252019M2021M2019M42019M62019M82020M32020M52020M72020M92021M42021M62021M82022M32022M52022M72022M92019M102019M122020M112021M102021M122022M11-4rs3456789CC-4rs3456789Ciqrjde5klm0tuyAFppDvDvayDDDFSDDFRES0-QDDDF05LstfpDDFSDFCDvfI9DvfI9pDDpDDD-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCC-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCDdeapgyDDEDDaw-45DEF-GHI3456789CC-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCDzf9pDDDEf9pDD-45DEF-GHI3456789ABRC-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCTTa3jCg00tuyAFpa9gnVDDDFREz0DDFR0ZI95L0FQFI90taDDD9Dz0DD9zzCg30dSSSSSSNDDF9-z050QFJK2aCD0AFpfDDD9DStDE0DD9zStDDtutDDDF9EzDD0DDF9EzDzECEgf9EDgf9pDDDpDD-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCC-45DEF-GHI3456789ABCZJK0qrrs3412hCt4TP9w40vatutpvDyDDDFSDDFES0JK-QDDDFC630FSG5LxF0S1g4UY09JK4Lyz630de00Fa5LxF0iv0vTdeaHE0s9HdeCZJK0ZpAFp0devfyDDDFSDDFDDSE0AFpS0gJK0DDDSDDF9DS0tS0qrrs34TPR12hCRS5b830vq5b8FpWT1t0ooqMG5bvWL5b0tuQFSXcSca68t0AFpZJK0S0ooytGCEEv5b8pgyEv5b8pgyDDEDDDED-45DEF-GHI3456789CC-45DEF-GHI3456789CEEvq5b8pgyEvq5b8pgyDDEDDDED-45DEF-GHI3456789CC-45DEF-GHI3456789CE5b8pgyE5b8pgyDDEDDDED-45DEF-GHI3456789CC-45DEF-GHI3456789CEz5b8pgy5b8pgyDDEDDDED-45DEF-GHI3456789CC-45DEF-GHI3456789C5b8pgyD5b8pgyDDEDDDED-45DEF-GHI3456789CC-45DEF-GHI3456789CE5b8pgy5b8pgyDDEDDDED-45DEF-GHI3456789CC-45DEF-GHI3456789CWXh121sCf-Sj00cd3I12C-0123456-78419ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQORBDSBCDTUVWIJ1XJEYMZ1abcdeZGfgAAXC3WLqrR4m0RTXBXC-01231456789ABCDEFGHIJKLMN1456789ABCDEFGIJ9HIJLOP1456789QRABSTEFGUIJ9IJLVN1456789WXABCDEFGIJKYZ014567467367jCw456745673F32N3wj3f45673BjC456789fW834567896j-0891234N5g367898978P34567ABCDEFEGHIJGHKLMj3NO-PQRST31U39VR3WXi1Y78N5gZ45672aCR3ab-jCcfde3Wofghfij675klmnmnojp675kl9Bqrst39uvjwxajp675klyyz9Zj9F-jCfd4567973ZfhfXj6789Ua3R4j4567fd3xh3mj3gs34567L3RjCg34567J9670u39fpp5kjCQWgQ89j4567XZhf4567jZ3x9j67eawg3c4567stBaAB78FdYm3fghfhJh675kljp675kl3STj4567893GH34567KLbJgMjC45673fIfKL2Mj4567p34567fIKLMjCIc4j4567w3jCCCCCRSCRSCRCRRCHILCCHLCRCHLCRCWPOorCRCWUoRCCCCCCCU-r0CW4P12o34RRCCCCCCC4rCCCCCCC5617C