【基本面信息】
　　·橡胶：截至2023年1月13日，上期所天然橡胶库存190204（3460）吨，仓单181800（12100）吨。20号胶库存35915（1915）吨，仓单31026（2015）吨。
　　 ·PVC：2022年底已有山东信发40万吨PVC与青岛海湾20万吨PVC装置达产，而沧州聚隆40万吨PVC和广西华谊40万吨PVC推迟至2023年达产。另外，还有陕西金泰60万吨、万华化学40万吨等PVC产能.
　　·甲醇：供应端开工高位回落，短期供应仍相对充足。利润来看，现货走高，煤炭短期有所回升，本周甲醇生产利润小幅回升，当前静态估值仍偏低。需求端随着MTO利润有所修复，沿海装置复产，MTO开工有所回升。
　　

研究报告全文：能源化工期权周报期权研究2023年1月16日星期一基本面信息橡胶截至2023年1月13日上期所天然橡胶库存1902043460吨仓单18180012100吨20号胶库存359151915吨仓单310262015吨PVC2022年底已有山东信发40万吨PVC与青岛海湾20万吨PVC装置达产而沧州聚隆40万吨PVC和广西华谊40万吨PVC推迟至2023年达产另外还有陕西金泰60万吨万华化学40万吨等PVC产能甲醇供应端开工高位回落短期供应仍相对充足利润来看现货走高煤炭短期有所回升本周甲醇生产卢品先利润小幅回升当前静态估值仍偏低需求端随着MTO利润有所修复沿海装置复产MTO开工有所回升行情概要与期权分析投研经理标的行情沪胶维持近两周以来的宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡周涨幅113报收于12910甲醇上周冲高回落后止0755-23375252跌反弹回升形成震荡上行温和上涨趋势周涨幅161报收于2655PTA前一周高位回落后连续大幅下挫而后区lupxwkqhcn间弱势盘整上周以来超跌反弹连续大幅上涨突破近期高点周涨幅503报收于5548塑料低位回升后连续上涨突破上行周涨幅316报收于8320聚丙烯冲高回落后连续大幅下跌而后超跌反弹回升连续上涨突破近期高从业资格号点周涨幅276报收于7945PVC近两周以来温和上涨震荡上行突破延续近一个月以来的宽幅矩形震荡区间上F3047321限周涨幅265报收于6534交易咨询号日均成交量上周能源化工类聚丙烯期权PVC期权和塑料期权日均成交量小幅增加而橡胶期权日均成交量则Z0015541小幅减少其他能源化工类期权大幅度减少下降橡胶期权日均成交量减少018万张至144万张甲醇期权日均成交量减少398万张至1759万张PTA期权日均成交量减少890万张至3428万张塑料期权期权日均成交量增加008万张至090万张聚丙烯期权日均成交量增加033万张至100万张PVC期权日均成交量增加012万张至201万张上周能源化工类期权日均持仓量LPG期权甲醇期权和PTA期权大幅减少以外而其他能源化工期权日均持仓量不同程度均有所增加其中橡胶期权日均持仓量增加047万张至413万张甲醇期权日均持仓量减少617万张至1181万张PTA期权日均持仓量减少1035万张至2642万张塑料期权日均持仓量增加017万张至138万张聚丙烯期权日均持仓量增加025万张至169万张PVC期权日均持仓量增加060万张至450万张一般认为期权的持仓量PCR为100时是多头和空头的分界线期权持仓量PCR站在期权卖方的角度看标的行情的走势上周橡胶期权持仓量PCR窄幅波动收于071甲醇期权持仓量PCR快速上升报收于100PTA期权持仓量PCR连续大幅下降后快速上升报收于093塑料期权持仓量PCR直线下降回落报收于082聚丙烯期权持仓量PCR小幅下跌报收于106PVC期权持仓量PCR持续下降回落维持较低水平报收于059隐含波动率上周能源化工类期权隐含波动率普遍小幅波动除了PTA期权的隐含波动率大幅上升以外截止收盘橡胶期权隐含波动率窄幅波动报收于2270甲醇期权隐含波动率持续上升报收于2446PTA期权隐含波动率连续两周大幅拉升报收于2725塑料期权隐含波动率小幅下降报收于1839聚丙烯期权隐含波动率报收于1858PVC期权隐含波动率报收于2319结论与操作建议1橡胶期权沪胶维持近两周以来的宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡下方有20天均线支撑上方有前期高点压力橡胶期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR维持在较低水平操作建议构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情急速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如RU2305期权SRU2305P1300010SRU2305P1275010和SRU2305C1300010SRU2305C13250102甲醇期权甲醇前一周冲高回落连续下跌而后止跌反弹回暖上升震荡上行且趋势线方向仍向上形成短期偏多头的市场行情形态甲醇期权隐含波动率持续上升持仓量PCR快速上涨操作建议构建卖出偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如MA2303期权SMA2303C275010SMA2303C270010和STMA2303P265010SMA2303P2600103PTA期权PTA前周高位回落后连续大幅下挫而后低位区间弱势盘整震荡上周以来反弹回暖上升后连续报收大阳线突破近期高点PTA期权隐含波动率快速上升持仓量PCR急速上涨操作建议构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏多头组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如TA2303期权STA2303C560010STA2303C570010和STA2303P540010STA2303P5500104PVC期权PVC近两周以来温和上涨突破维持一个月以来的震荡区间上限PVC期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR维持在较低水平操作建议构建卖出看涨看跌期权多头组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌至低行权价则平仓离场如V2305期权SV2305-C-660010SV2305-C-670010和SV2305-P-640010SV2305-P-6500105塑料期权塑料上周以来逐渐回升突破上行塑料期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR快速下跌报收于100以上操作建议构建卖出偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓离场如L2305期权SL2305-C-840010SL2305-C-850010和SL2305-P-820010SL2305-P-830010一周市场行情回顾期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅周日均成交量万增减上周日均持仓量万增减RURU230512910150011327222501918-008MAMA230326552500161157383946721119PTATA230355482360050323692537040095LPGPG2303436030000952427193624293LL23058320289003163080-4123834446PPPP23057945250002763973-6374275406PVCV23056534147002658963-317476421238期权总成交与持仓上周日均总成交量万张上周日均总持仓量万张期权品种CallPut合计变化PCRCallPut合计变化PCRRU10465394514410-18520382435116978413304708070MA9620479715175919-379720835815759905118063-61730103PTA192123150732342854-88988078158852105396264248-103468066LPG13205900622211-2304806812796806720863-27000063L49424106904871908370546733137871707095PP589340719964326906978569010168662490115PVC1153185252005512510742759217359449526000063主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日RU230513000580005380013042630004913200652023-04-24MA230326505400490026552350089000102023-02-03TA23035500145009300555210450192400102023-02-03PG23034350159807260443767801557720122023-02-07L230583002630029550826814000172-5250552023-04-10PP2305790026300267007896-8100-102-4900552023-04-10V23056500260502875064736700105-6100552023-04-10注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWRU2305239619742270-017219322712116MA2303251523452446120223723792096TA2303269327802725237234625742119PG2303309330123049033292531502700L2305181118781839007186918991838PP2305187518281858018182518491802V2305233822932319013240324752331主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化RU2305930939550420102339516562071001MA23039939267472068-0223796437815100004TA2303225565132470059-0077544070068093007PG23037248832511503378776417081008L230581976088074-02283776832082-012PP2305120526634055-01188149321106-010V23052023114718073-0232790116498059-002数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1橡胶主力合约走势图1400070成交量万收盘价135006013000005013000401250030120002011500101100002022-07-152022-10-282022-11-182022-07-122022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-13图2甲醇主力合约走势图3200300成交量万收盘价3000250280026530020026001502400100220050200002022-09-052022-10-122023-01-132022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-10图3PTA主力合约走势图6200350成交量万收盘价6000300250580055800020056001505400100520050500002022-07-252022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-13标的价量关系图5LPG主力合约走势图600025成交量万收盘价2055001550001045005460900400002022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-13图6塑料主力合约走势图1000075成交量万收盘价9500609000458500308000826800750015700002022-08-102022-10-202022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-13图7PP主力合约走势图830090成交量万收盘价82008081007080006050790040780030770078970020760010750002022-09-272022-10-252022-11-152022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-13图8PVC主力合约走势图7100180收盘价收盘价690016067001406500120100630080610064690060590040570020550002022-09-052022-12-012022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-13橡胶期权持仓分布橡胶期权持仓分布图橡胶期权持仓变化图500020045004000150350010030002500502000150001000-505000-100120001200013500150001300010000100001050011000115001250013000140001450015500160001650010000105001100011500120001250013500140001450015000155001600016500OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC橡胶期权最大未平仓橡胶认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价1800017000160001500014000130001200011000100002022-11-232022-12-012022-12-092022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-13橡胶期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓橡胶期权持仓量PCR橡胶期权隐含波动率060130000013500OIPCR34055CLOSE3213000050300451250028040260351200024220301150020025020110002022-07-122022-07-202022-07-282022-08-052022-08-152022-08-232022-08-312022-09-082022-09-192022-09-272022-10-122022-10-202022-10-282022-11-072022-11-152022-11-232022-12-012022-12-092022-12-192022-12-272023-01-052023-01-132023-01-052022-07-222022-08-032022-08-152022-08-252022-09-062022-09-192022-09-292022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-12-132022-12-232022-07-12IMPVMA20UPLOW甲醇期权持仓分布甲醇期权持仓分布图甲醇期权持仓变化图6000100080050006004000400200300002000-200-4001000-6000-800245022002250230023502400250026002700280029003000310032003300340035003600220022502300235024002450250026002700280029003000310032003300340035003600OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC甲醇期权最大未平仓甲醇认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价32003000280026002400220020002022-08-102022-09-192022-11-022022-12-092022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-13甲醇期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓甲醇期权持仓量PCR甲醇期权隐含波动率2653001802900OIPCR552800150CLOSE2700451202600250035090099612400250602300220003015210000020002022-07-122022-07-202022-07-282022-08-052022-08-152022-08-232022-08-312022-09-082022-09-192022-09-272022-10-122022-10-202022-10-282022-11-072022-11-152022-11-232022-12-012022-12-092022-12-192022-12-272023-01-052023-01-132023-01-052022-07-222022-08-032022-08-152022-08-252022-09-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