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>> 五矿期货-金属期权日报-230111
上传日期:   2023/1/11 大小:   1199KB
格式:   pdf  共10页 来源:   五矿期货
评级:   -- 作者:   卢品先
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【基本面信息】
  铜:产业层面,昨日LME库存减少375至84775吨,注销仓单比例提高,Cash/3M贴水26.5美元/吨。国内方面,昨日上海地区现货升水持平于20元/吨,市场氛围较谨慎,成交偏淡。进出口方面,昨日国内现货进口亏损扩大至900元/吨左右,洋山铜溢价下跌。
  铝:现货市场成交情况一般,钢厂按需补库。中国45港铁矿石到港总量2482.4万吨,环比减少199.9万吨,本周到港量下降。
  黄金:COMEX金涨0.19%,报1881.3美元/盎司,COMEX银跌0.63%,报23.7美元/盎司;10年期国债收益率报3.615%,美元指数报103.26。
  铁矿石:现货市场成交情况一般,钢厂按需补库,PB粉价格较上一个交易日下跌20-25元/吨。本周澳洲发往中国的量1535.8万吨,环比增加89.8万吨。
研究报告全文:金属期权日报期权研究2023年1月11日星期三基本面信息铜产业层面昨日LME库存减少375至84775吨注销仓单比例提高Cash3M贴水265美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货升水持平于20元吨市场氛围较谨慎成交偏淡进出口方面昨日国内现货进口亏损扩大至900元吨左右洋山铜溢价下跌铝现货市场成交情况一般钢厂按需补库中国45港铁矿石到港总量24824万吨环比减少1999万吨本周到港量下降卢品先黄金COMEX金涨019报18813美元盎司COMEX银跌063报237美元盎司10年期国债收益投研经理率报3615美元指数报103260755-23375252铁矿石现货市场成交情况一般钢厂按需补库PB粉价格较上一个交易日下跌20-25元吨本周澳lupxwkjyqhcom洲发往中国的量15358万吨环比增加898万吨从业资格号期权分析及操作建议F30473211铜期权交易咨询号沪铜上周以来冲高回落后连续空头下跌而后超跌反弹持续大幅上涨突破上行涨幅120报收于Z001554167310期权隐含波动率下降078报收于1930持仓量PCR持续上升报收于213操作建议沪铜超跌反弹回暖上升后持续大幅上涨延续前期的偏多头市场行情趋势期权隐含波动率有所下降持仓量PCR持续上升维持在200以上构建卖出看涨看跌宽跨式偏多头期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓逐渐离场如CU2302SCU2302P66000SCU2302P67000和SCU2302C69000SCU2302C680002铝期权沪铝经过前一周连续大幅下挫后上周以来低位盘整弱势震荡后逐渐回暖涨幅066报收于18265期权隐含波动率下降145报收于1632持仓量PCR报收于073操作建议沪铝延续空头趋势线下弱势震荡有所反弹回暖上升期权隐含波动率持续下降期权持仓量PCR窄幅盘整维持较低水平构建看涨看跌卖方偏空头的期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如AL2302SAL2302P1810010SAL2302P1820010和SAL2302C18300010SAL2302C18400103锌期权沪锌ZN2302上周以来低位反弹后逐渐上涨偏多头上行跌幅015报收于23750期权隐含波动率下降032报收于1834持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于142操作建议沪锌短期趋势偏多头上涨而上方有前期高点压力的市场行情格局期权隐含波动率小幅下降沪锌期权持仓量PCR窄幅波动构建卖出宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如ZN2302SZN2302P23600SZN2302P23400和SZN2302C24000SZN2302C238004黄金期权黄金沿着多头趋势方向上震荡上行突破上涨而日间振幅加剧涨幅013报收于41302期权隐含波动率小幅下降019报收于1313期权持仓量PCR报收于073操作建议黄金延续偏多头趋势方向震荡上行突破上涨日间振幅加大多空博弈剧烈期权隐含波动率小幅下降期权持仓量PCR窄幅盘整构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如AU2302SAU2302-C-42410SAU2302-C-41610和SAU2302-P-40810SAU2302-P-408105铁矿石期权铁矿石I2305维持两个月以来的多头上涨趋势上周以来高位盘整震荡逐渐回落涨幅072报收于84000期权隐含波动率上升0917报收于3713期权持仓量PCR小幅上涨报收于258操作建议铁矿石持续两个月以来的多头上涨趋势突破上行上周市场行情逐渐转为弱势连续大幅下跌而趋势线方向仍向上期权隐含波动率小幅上升期权持仓量PCR窄幅波动构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情急速大跌则平仓离场如I2305SI2305-C-840SI2305-C-850和SI2305-P-820SI2305-P-830市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CUCU230267310008000012036112020ALAL2302182650012000066157014244ZNZN23022375000-3500-015121814492AUAU2302413020520131947995II230584000600072725860545数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日CU23026700049600930006656647400072-7440082023-01-18AL23021830011500256001815919700110-1060082023-01-18ZN2302238002350028300237522230009520082023-01-18AU2302416174490413-040-010-01882023-01-18I2305840522052008401920234020902023-04-10数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWCU2302171321371930-078187520451705AL2302160116871632-145156117011421ZN2302175819411834-032197721961757AU2302127513591313-019132313891256I2305310940883713091329335503036数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化CU23022696528295105-0281214325855213004AL23023916722864058-0062389317336073007ZN23022929420995072-026941513354142003AU2302707059840850221486310850073-000I2305239153849416100257925149421258005数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1铜主力合约走势图7500025成交量万收盘价70000665800020650001560000105500055000002022-09-222022-11-072022-12-142022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-10图2铝主力合约走势图2000040成交量万收盘价19500351900018160003018500251800020175001517000101650051600002022-07-252022-08-052022-11-282022-12-092022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-282022-08-022022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-12-012022-12-062022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-10图3锌主力合约走势图2600050成交量万收盘价25000402400030230002373500202200021000102000002022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-10图4黄金主力合约走势图20成交量万收盘价420413704051039037536002022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-10图5铁矿石主力合约走势图1000140成交量万收盘价120900839501008008070060406002050002022-07-072022-07-122022-07-152022-07-202022-07-252022-07-282022-08-022022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10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