研究报告全文：银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告尿素日报交易策略核心观点今日国内交割区尿素现货价格延续弱势运行整体下跌10元吨午后随着低端价格成交量有所增加局部地区价格企稳少数企业停收整体气氛略有改善一方面临近年底西南气头企业开始陆续检修不过固定床装置利润尚可煤制开工率保持高位整体日产维持在147万吨的高位水平今日部分装置故障带动低端价格成交略有改善厂家报价整体企稳另一方面元旦节前部分下游有补库需求复合肥厂少量采购支撑交割区尿素价格整体平稳运行不过临近年底下游整体需求进入季节性淡季工业企业开工率大幅下滑零星的补库需求难以扭转颓势价格弱稳为主供应方面晋城无烟块煤价格坚挺为主6800K小块出厂价2010-2060元吨榆林沫煤价格弱稳5800大卡含税出厂价1130-1180元吨烟块煤6200大卡含税出厂价1280-1330元吨尿素现货价格延续跌势固定床工艺生产利润收窄至137元吨水煤浆工艺生产利润439元吨气流床工艺利润744元吨附近生产利润尚佳煤头企业开工率高位运行不过近期西南地区气头装置开始季节性检修整体供应偏稳尿素日均产量在148万吨附近西北地区内蒙新疆疫情管控放开仓储物流逐渐宽松疆内铁路外运畅通企业高库存局面将得到缓解出口方面印度招标或将继续推迟出口市场情绪暂时降温关注招标动态需求方面临近年底下游企业开工率开始季节性回落整体需求较前期有所减少仅有东北地区需求尚可库存方面物流缓解企业销售顺利本周企业库存继续减少295万吨左右以上观点仅供参考不做入市依据行情回顾今日期货盘面震荡上涨最终报收251643174现货市场今日尿素现货价格弱稳为主河南中小颗粒报2580-2620元吨山东中小颗粒报2580-2640元吨河北中小颗粒报2640-2650元吨山西中小颗粒报2600-2610元吨安徽中小颗粒报2740-2760元吨新疆中小颗粒报2380-2450元吨重要资讯截止2022年12月29日第52周中国尿素港口样本库存量183万吨环比增加62万吨环比涨幅5124本周期部分货源集港主要是烟台港黄骅港小颗粒货源集港其余港口未见明显变化港口库存量由降转升16银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告相关数据图表心连价格期货山东河南河北安徽江苏湖北联盟正元昊源兰花晋开心2020-12-2818421810184018201870184018551780183018301890NA17902021-12-2923922540252024802550255025002530252024902540242024802022-11-2526312790276027802790280027602740271027502780268027002022-11-2825802790279028002820281027802760276027802790270027402022-12-0226192730273027502760274027102720270027602790266026802022-12-0526222740275027502790276027202700271027302790265027002022-12-0826082710270027502750273027202650265027002750263026502022-12-11NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-1426412790281028102830280028202730274027602830269027502022-12-17NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-2024662700273027602770272027302670272027202790263026702022-12-24NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-25NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-2624832670271027302740269027302630267026802770260026602022-12-2724972660268027202720268027302580263026702770260026202022-12-2824882650265027102720267027202580263026502750260026002022-12-292516NANANANANANA258026202650275026002580固定航天水煤山东河南河北安徽盘面无烟无烟三聚氰价差利润床利炉利浆利电煤利润基差基差基差基差利润块煤沫煤胺润润润2020-12-28-62-12-1248NA335542290425930532NANA2021-12-29138128981481317239543985681860833950014102022-11-2510979119149306459793391845187011707900-8202022-11-28180180200210328547869343835187011407900-8802022-12-0210181141171260486788373840191011657800-8602022-12-057888108168239482781367845192511857700-9002022-12-08424292142193396684322855196012307600-8502022-12-11NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-148999119189219490796286855201012007500-11902022-12-17NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-20204254254324151511811121820203711707500-10102022-12-24NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-25NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-26147187197287127479780144800203711557600-7902022-12-2783133173273127439744158800203711507600-6402022-12-2892142162262127439755149800203711357600-6402022-12-2964104134234127429745177800203711357600-64026银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告河南心连心出厂价山东联盟出厂价单位元吨单位元吨340034002900290024002400190019001400140001-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0102-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0102-0106-0107-0111-0101-0103-0104-0105-0108-0109-0110-0112-0120192020202120222019202020212022河北正元出厂价安徽昊源出厂价单位元吨单位元吨340034002900290024002400190019001400140004-0109-0111-0101-0102-0103-0105-0106-0107-0108-0110-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0107-0108-0109-0112-0105-0106-0110-0111-0120192020202120222019202020212022心连心基差山东联盟基差单位元吨单位元吨600600375375150150757504-0105-0106-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0107-0108-0109-0110-0102-0103-0106-0107-0109-0110-0104-0105-0108-0111-0112-0130001-01300202020212022202020212022河北正元基差安徽昊源基差单位元吨单位元吨600600375375150150757501-0104-0106-0109-0111-0102-0103-0105-0107-0108-0110-0112-0105-0106-0109-0110-0101-0102-0103-0104-0107-0108-0111-0112-0130030020202021202220202021202236银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告2022-12-26尿素周度数据尿素开工率卓创尿素开工率隆众单位单位800080007250725065006500575057505000500004-0105-0106-0111-0112-0102-0104-0106-0108-0110-0112-0101-0102-0103-0107-0108-0109-0110-0101-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-01202020212022202020212022尿素煤制开工率隆众尿素气制开工率隆众单位单位80008000725060006500400057502000500000001-0103-0105-0107-0110-0112-0102-0104-0106-0108-0109-0111-0101-0102-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0103-0104-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素产量隆众尿素日均产量隆众单位万吨单位万吨120001700110001550100001400900012508000110003-0104-0110-0111-0101-0102-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0112-0101-0105-0108-0112-0102-0103-0104-0106-0107-0109-0110-0111-01202020212022202020212022尿素煤制产量隆众尿素气制开工率隆众单位万吨单位90008000825060007500400067502000600000004-0106-0108-0110-0112-0101-0102-0103-0105-0107-0109-0111-0101-0102-0103-0104-0107-0111-0105-0106-0108-0109-0110-0112-0120202021202220202021202246银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告2022-12-26尿素周度数据尿素企业库存隆众尿素港口库存隆众单位万吨单位万吨10500750080005750550040003000225050050005-0106-0107-0108-0101-0102-0103-0104-0109-0110-0111-0112-0107-0108-0110-0111-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0109-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素各省供应量卓创尿素各省需求量卓创单位万吨单位万吨220001600019000140001600012000130001000010000800001-0102-0109-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0110-0111-0112-0101-0106-0108-0111-0102-0103-0104-0105-0107-0109-0110-0112-012021202220212022复合肥开工率隆众复合肥厂库卓创单位单位万吨0609000050750004060000304500020300002-0104-0107-0108-0109-0101-0103-0105-0106-0110-0111-0112-010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