观点
　　近期PVC在宏观政策利好及地产强预期下震荡抬升，随着上周中央经济工作会议落幕，短期利好出尽，预期支撑转弱。PVC库存整体高位波动，库存压力仍大，利润较之前已有明显回升，当前开工低位，存回升预期，加上新装置投产，短期价格偏空。

研究报告全文：银河期货PVC周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432022年12月19日银河能化微信公众号概述项目基本面及变化库存上周PVC上游库存小幅累库024万吨至467万吨同比增加189社会库存去库063万吨至239万吨同比增加932022年11月PVC产量16425万吨环比下降95同比下降73累计同比下降056上周PVC开工小幅提升整体仍处低位PVC粉开产量工率环比上升021个百分点至7085其中电石法开工环比上升161个百分点至6976乙烯法开工下降477个百分点至7474电石上周电石价格有所上涨乌海电石上涨14至3650元吨山东电石上涨254至4030元吨电石利润上涨50元吨至12元吨兰炭上周兰炭价格持稳1505元吨兰炭开工上升146个百分点至562310月PVC粉出口97万吨环比下降119同比下降135累计同比增长213连续5个月环比下降进出口12月7日中国台湾台塑公布1月PVC报价环比上涨70-90美元吨CFR中国805美元吨CIF东南亚800美元吨CIF印度840美元吨上周PVC生产企业对外出口签单环比增加39万吨累计待交付量增加至17万吨追加上周签单出口价格维持在780-820美元吨FOB实单商谈上周美国PVC出口价格上涨90美元吨至740美元吨西北欧离岸价上涨20美元吨至940美元吨印度到岸价上涨40美元吨至880美元吨外盘价格东南亚到岸价上涨20美元吨至820美元吨10月PVC消费177万吨环比增长58同比增长1099累计同比下降31需求10月PVC地板出口3271万吨环比下降1134同比下降4133累计同比下降78连续3个月环比下降上周PVC下游制品企业开工率在4589环比减少197同比增加122型材开机率在35环比减少125同比减少375成本利润电石利润上涨50元吨至12元吨山东外购电石法利润上涨10元吨至-820元吨氯碱一体化利润上涨20元吨至-370元吨期现价差上周PVC震荡抬升05合约周度收涨206华东现货周度上涨294基差上涨51至-981-5价差上涨54至2近期PVC在宏观政策利好及地产强预期下震荡抬升随着上周中央经济工作会议落幕短期利好出尽预期支撑转弱PVC库存整体高位波动观点库存压力仍大利润较之前已有明显回升当前开工低位存回升预期加上新装置投产短期价格偏空GALAXYFUTURES1期现价差PVC05季节性PVC05PVC常州SG-5合约持仓量130001600012000700110006001400010000500120009000400800030010000700020060008000500010060004000005206207208209201020112012201202203204201121314151617181911011111214000PVC1705PVC1805PVC1905PVC200520142015201620172018112131415161718191101111121PVC2105PVC2205PVC23052019202020212022201720182019202020212022PVC05基差PVC1-5价差PVC5-9价差3000160080014002500120060020001000800400150060020010004002000500002002006474839252061971981891710211112110171116121650012314005206207208209201020112012201202203204209201051020114111912412191311822217343194341853PVC1801-PVC1805PVC1901-PVC1905PVC2001-PVC2005PVC1605-PVC1609PVC1705-PVC1709PVC1805-PVC1809PVC1905-PVC1909PVC2005-PVC2009PVC2105-PVC2109PVC1905PVC2005PVC2105PVC2205PVC2305PVC2101-PVC2105PVC2201-PVC2205PVC2301-PVC2305PVC2205-PVC2209PVC2305-PVC2309资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES2利润兰炭利润电石利润西北外购电石PVC生产利润30001500300025002000100020001000150050010000500-100000-2000-500-500-3000112131415161718191101111121-1000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820152016201720182015201620172018201920202021202220192020202120222019202020212022西北自产电石法生产利润山东外购电石法PVC生产利润山东氯碱一体化利润4000300040003000200030002000100020001000010000-10000-1000-2000-1000-2000-3000-2000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820152016201720182015201620172018201920202021202220192020202120222019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES3利润华东进口乙烯法PVC生产利润华东进口VCM法生产利润PVC出口东南亚利润电石法1000060005009000500040080004000300700030002006000200010050001000040000-1003000-2002000-10001000-2000-3000-3000-400-1000-4000-50011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120152016201720182015201620172018201620172018201920192020202120222019202020212022202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES4库存PVC上游库存PVC上游预售PVC仓单700080120060007010006050008005040006004030003040020002020010001000001121314151617181911011111210001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212011201220132014201520162019202020212022202020212022201720182019202020212022PVC社会库存华东华南卓创PVC华东社会库存卓创PVC华南社会库存卓创50003500180045001600300040001400350025001200300020001000250080020001500600150010001000400500500200000000000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201420152016201720182014201520162017201820142015201620172018201920202021202220192020202120222019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES5PVC新增产能新装置方面青岛海晶20万吨新装置9月初投产PVC2022年新装置企业产能工艺投产时间2022年1月内蒙宜化厂区原有30万吨年PVC装置技改新增5万吨装置并线完内蒙宜化5电石法成扩至35万吨2021年8月5日工厂搬迁开工维持1-2成2021年12月底老装置关停新厂40天津大沽80乙烯法万吨装置开车1月10日左右停车1月25日开车2022年3月底共开了60万吨4月80万吨全部达产德州实华20姜钟法2022年1月试车EDC外购2022年5月正式投产青岛海湾20乙烯法2022年9月初投产20万吨聚隆化工40乙烯法2021年5月13日EDCVCM点火试车6月29日试车11月有量销售广西华谊氯碱40乙烯法2022年11月30日试车化工山东信发40电石法2022年11月21日试车2022年合计245资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES6产量开工PVC产量季节性PVC粉开工率电石法PVC粉开工率210900095002008500900019085008000180800075001707500700016070006500150650014060006000123456789101112112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022乙烯法PVC粉开工率电石开工与PVC开工率9500950900090085008508008000750750070070006506500600600055055005000202055202075202095202135202155202195202215202235202255202035202115202175202275202295202111520221151121314151617181911011111212020115201720182019202020212022电石开工率电石法PVC开工率资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES7分项开工资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES8电石乌海电石山东电石900090008000800070007000600060005000500040004000300030002000200010001000011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120162017201820192016201720182019202020212022202020212022电石利润电石开工率3000950025009000200085001500800010007500500700006500-5006000-1000550011213141516171819110111112150002015201620172018112131415161718191101111121112019202020212022202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES9兰炭兰炭市场价中料神木精煤块价格385018003350160014002850120023501000185080013506004008502003500112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201620172018201920152016201720182020202120222019202020212022兰炭利润兰炭开工率1400070120006510000608000556000504002000450040-200035-400030-60002511213141516171819110111112102020152016201720181121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES10外盘PVC外盘价格PVC外盘投产企业国家产能工艺投产时间2400韩华韩国13乙烯法2020年Q12200Engro巴基斯坦10乙烯法2020年Q32000信越美国29乙烯法2020年1800Inovyn欧洲20乙烯法2020年16001400Inovyn欧洲12乙烯法2020年1200Shintech美国29乙烯法2020年10002020年合计113800台塑美国14乙烯法2021年年底6002021年合计14Sulfindo印尼265乙烯法2022年上半年已于2022年3月份启动Anyer新增的年产20202111202121202131202141202151202161202171202181202191202211202221202231202241202251202261202271202281202291Asahimas印尼20乙烯法202110120211112021121202210120221112022121万吨PVC工厂外采氯乙烯西北欧离岸价东南亚CFR中国CFREGA阿联酋20乙烯法2022年2022年合计665美国海湾FAS印度CFR资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES11台塑预售报价台塑-CFR印度台塑-CFR中国20001800180016001600140014001200120010001000800800600600010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023台塑-FOB东北亚至东南亚台塑-FOB东北亚至越南1800180016001600140014001200120010001000800800600600010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES12进出口PVC出口季节性PVC进口季节性30520281825527162222142051218101551481361051111104552012345678910111205123456789101112201420152016201720182017201820192020202120222019202020212022PVC净进口季节性PVC出口东南亚利润电石法2050040010300200010070-1010810-100151119-200-20222524-300-30-400123456789101112-5001121314151617181911011111212014201520162017201820162017201820192019202020212022202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES13需求PVC需求季节性200190180170160150140130120123456789101112201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES14制品出口PVC铺地制品出口PVC制品出口PVC铺地制品-出口至美国60007000400050006000350050003000400025004000300020003000200015002000100010001000500000000000123456789101112123456789101112123456789101112201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES15房地产12000房地产数据30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值一线城市10000700180800016060060001404000500120200010000040080-200030060-400040200-60002010001121314151617181911011111212014-022015-022016-022017-022014-102015-062015-102016-062016-102017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-062019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062014-060商品房销售面积累计同比房屋新开工面积累计同比11213141516171819110111112120172018201920202021房屋竣工面积累计同比本年购置土地面积累计同比2017201820192020202120222022202320242025房屋施工面积累计同比30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值二线城市30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值三线城市400250350200300250150200100150100505000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201720182019202020212017201820192020202120222023202420252022202320242025资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES16周琴能化投资研究部从业资格号F3076447投资咨询从业证书号Z0015943电话021-65789376电邮zhouqinqhchinastockcomcn上海市虹口区东大名路501号上海白玉兰广场28层28thFloorNo501DongDaMingRoadSinarMasPlazaHongkouDistrictShanghaiChina全国统一客服热线400-886-7799公司网址wwwyhqhcomcn银河期货微信公众号下载银河期货APP