铜：LME因圣诞假期休市，离岸人民币上涨，昨日沪铜小幅上涨，主力合约收至66250元/吨。产业层面，周末国内社会库存小幅增加，临近年底持货商换现意愿较强，上海地区现货升水下调至250元/吨。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1440元/吨，废铜替代优势降低。价格层面，美国三季度GDP数据好于预期，美联储鹰派政策预期延续，海外通胀预期仍面临压力。当前国内现实偏弱，供需均受到疫情影响，如果疫情未见好转，短期需求可能进一步走弱，铜价重心或有所回落。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：65500-66400元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20221227铜LME因圣诞假期休市离岸人民币上涨昨日沪铜小幅上涨主力合约收至66250元吨产业层面周末国内社会库存小幅增加临近年底持货商换现意愿较强上海地区现货升水下调至250元吨废铜方面昨日国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1440元吨废铜替代优势降低价格层面美国三季度GDP数据好于预期美联储鹰派政策预期延续海外通胀预期仍面临压力当前有色金属小组国内现实偏弱供需均受到疫情影响如果疫情未见好转短期需求可能进一步走弱铜价重心或有所回落今日沪铜主力运行区间参考65500-66400元吨吴坤金从业资格号F3036210交易咨询号Z00159240755-23375135wkjwkqhcn铝沪铝主力合约报收18715元吨截止昨日下午三点涨幅019SMM现货A00铝报均价王震宇18760元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价110铝期货仓单35592吨较前一日减少2411吨截至12月从业资格号F308252426日国内电解铝社会库存484万吨较上周四库存增加09万吨较11月底库存下降32万吨0755-23375132较去年同期库存下降356万吨根据海关总署最新数据显示2022年11月未锻轧铝及铝材出口量wangzywkqhcn约为4556万吨环比减少494同比减少10552022年1-11月未锻轧铝及铝材出口量6132万吨同比去年1-11月增长213印尼宣布将从2023年6月起禁止铝土矿出口预计将对国内铝土矿供应产生一定冲击沪铝预计震荡运行主力合约参考运行区间18300-18900钟靖从业资格号F30352670755-23375125zhongjwkqhcn锡沪锡主力合约报收197940元吨涨幅071截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单上升110吨现为4097吨长江有色锡1的平均价为197000元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收180750元吨根据中国海关公布的数据以及安泰科的折算2022年11月我国锡精矿进口实物量26552吨折金属量55430吨环比上涨1114同比上涨282精锡进口量为5174吨环比上涨473同比增长4093沪锡震荡行情预计延续主力参考运行区间187000-200000镍周一LME市场休市价格方面沪镍主力合约涨054国内基本面方面周一现货价格报222000230200元吨俄镍现货对01合约升水7400元吨金川镍现货升水10250元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口亏损缩窄弱需求现实国内供应过剩趋势镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持增长趋势综合来看淡季和疫情等不利因素或继续影响短期镍铁和精炼镍基本面不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存继续累库供需双弱现实和节后经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内宏观政策利好和淡季产业链需求转弱对原料价格影响博弈中期关注印尼新能源原料新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000225000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2022年12月26日日频数据2022年12月27日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜8147501322516232150640417899253498333989552213251079379279297铝4666000239375513026099553975653559224113702301717150100799781823569锌363500213755880220018173284552860217473826553701657977898391264铅24350097754014490041942538330008683413239011256170256887108624022镍543000498091717000245910421098014134548092022年12月26日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期69587USDCNY即期697601个月美元LIBOR438693个月美元LIBOR472642022年12月27日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-032022-052022-072021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-062022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价2500002000065005300009000048000055008000020000015000430000450070000380000100001500003500330000600005000250028000050000100000230000150040000018000050030000500001300005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-082021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价25000007035000035044003000003006039002000000250250000502003400150000020000015040150000100290010000003050100000240020050000500000-501900100-1000050000-15014002021-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002022-082022-112021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-092022-102022-12SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002022-082022-112021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-092022-102022-12SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002000020017000180000160000150001600020000010014000010000150000120000150000500014000100000-10010000001300080000-20060000500012000500004000010000-3001100020000015000-4001000002021-102021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价570003000006010000200052000800047000250000501500600042000100020000040400037000200050032000150000300270000200022000100000204000-500170006000120005000010-1000800070000010000-15002021-112022-062021-012021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90040009001000200008508500-1000800-2000800-2000-4000750-3000750-6000-4000700-8000-5000700650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价95020001050010001000900-10000950-1000850900-2000-2000850800-3000-3000800-4000750750-4000-5000-6000700700-5000-7000650650-8000600-60002021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-102021-022021-062021-102022-022022-062022-10汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-12