【基本面信息】
铜:产业层面,周末国内社会库存小幅增加,临近年底持货商换现意愿较强,上海地区现货升水下调至250元/吨。废铜方面,昨日国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1440元/吨,废铜替代优势降低。 铝:SMM现货A00铝报均价18760元/吨。A00铝锭升贴水平均价110。铝期货仓单35592吨,较前一日减少2411吨。截至12月26日,国内电解铝社会库存48.4万吨,较上周四库存增加0.9万吨,较11月底库存下降3.2万吨,较去年同期库存下降35.6万吨。 黄金:外盘贵金属因圣诞假休市;沪金夜盘涨0.02%,报407.5元/克,沪银夜盘涨0.51%,报5337元/千克;日内关注10月S&P/CS20座大城市房价指数。 铁矿石:SMM统计数据显示,上周(12.17-12.23)全球铁矿发运总量3385万吨,环比减少2%。其中澳洲发往中国环比减少9.7%,巴西发往中国环比增加26%。而根据SMM统计的中国铁矿石到港总量数据为2372.42万吨,环比减少2.4%。 研究报告全文:金属期权日报期权研究2022年12月27日星期二基本面信息铜产业层面周末国内社会库存小幅增加临近年底持货商换现意愿较强上海地区现货升水下调至250元吨废铜方面昨日国内精废价差小幅缩窄至1440元吨废铜替代优势降低铝SMM现货A00铝报均价18760元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价110铝期货仓单35592吨较前一日减少2411吨截至12月26日国内电解铝社会库存484万吨较上周四库存增加09万吨较11月底库存下降32万吨较去年同期库存下降356万吨卢品先黄金外盘贵金属因圣诞假休市沪金夜盘涨002报4075元克沪银夜盘涨051报5337元投研经理千克日内关注10月SPCS20座大城市房价指数0755-23375252铁矿石SMM统计数据显示上周1217-1223全球铁矿发运总量3385万吨环比减少2其中澳lupxwkjyqhcom洲发往中国环比减少97巴西发往中国环比增加26而根据SMM统计的中国铁矿石到港总量数据为237242万吨环比减少24从业资格号F3047321期权分析及操作建议交易咨询号1铜期权Z0015541沪铜维持近三周以来沿着多头趋势方向上高位盘整震荡逐渐回暖上升涨幅081报收于66310期权隐含波动率下降012报收于1790持仓量PCR持续上升维持在高位水平报收于199操作建议沪铜沿着偏多头趋势方向高位盘整震荡逐渐上行期权隐含波动率持续下降至较低水平持仓量PCR快速上升构建卖出看涨看跌宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大跌或急速大涨则平仓逐渐离场如CU2302SCU2302P66000SCU2302P65000和SCU2302C67000SCU2302C680002铝期权沪铝维持近两周以来围绕着55天均线附近上下震荡涨幅086报收于18725期权隐含波动率下降072报收于1431持仓量PCR报收于099操作建议沪铝维持近两周以来围绕着55天均线上下波动形成矩形区间盘整震荡期权隐含波动率持续小幅下降期权持仓量PCR快速上涨操作建议构建卖出看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如AL2302SAL2302P1860010SAL2302P1870010和SAL2302C1880010SAL2302C18900103锌期权沪锌ZN2301上周高位回落后连续跳空低开大幅下跌短期市场行情较强的空头情绪涨幅064报收于23545期权隐含波动率下降020报收于1905持仓量PCR小幅下降报收于116操作建议沪锌高位回落后连续报收大阴线形成短期趋势上方有压力的弱势偏空头期权隐含波动率持续下降回落沪锌期权持仓量PCR大幅度下降构建卖出宽跨式期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如ZN2302SZN2302P23400SZN2302P23200和SZN2302C23800SZN2302C236004黄金期权黄金延续多头趋势方向上大幅波动的市场行情涨幅002报收于40750期权隐含波动率下降054报收于1352期权持仓量PCR报收于066操作建议黄金延续偏多头趋势方向上大幅波动的市场行情格局下方有60天均线支撑上方有前期高点压力期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR窄幅盘整构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如AU2302SAU2302-C-40810SAU2302-C-41610和SAU2302-P-40010SAU2302-P-408105铁矿石期权铁矿石I2302超跌反弹V型反转后维持一个半月以来的多头上涨趋势突破6月中旬以来的高点上周以来高位盘整震荡大幅波动涨幅030报收于83400期权隐含波动率上升154报收于3191期权持仓量PCR大幅度上升报收于266操作建议铁矿石持续一个半月以来的多头上涨趋势上周以来涨幅收窄形成高位宽幅矩形区间震荡期权隐含波动率持续下降后快速反弹期权持仓量PCR急速上涨构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如I2305SI2301-C-830SI2305-C-840和SI2305-P-820SI2305-P-830市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CUCU230266310005300008144614670ALAL2302187250016000086137012721ZNZN2302235450015000064121014155AUAU23024075001000290436812II2302834002500302422014数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日CU23026600097800984006599459200091-31600252023-01-20AL2302187002500030500186457600041-8000252023-01-20ZN23022360038200493002348942800186-5600252023-01-20AU2302408448506407038009-008252023-01-20I230283022901460838270032430142023-01-09数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWCU2302160719011790-012199821441851AL2302138914731431-072161517001529ZN2302175720451905-020213722682005AU2302148511911352-054134513901301I2302246334963191154343736973176数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化CU230250848346164-055759515124199-028AL230264556259097-0231125111138099-008ZN230247224985106-10253086138116-007AU2302469838560820301671611033066-001I2302359578562723810652652140139266000数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1铜主力合约走势图7500030成交量万收盘价7000025660100020650001560000105500055000002022-09-072022-10-242022-11-302022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-26图2铝主力合约走势图2400050成交量万收盘价230004022000210003020000186450019000201800010170001600002022-07-112022-07-222022-11-142022-11-252022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-142022-07-192022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-172022-11-222022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-26图3锌主力合约走势图3000060成交量万收盘价28000504026000302400020235200022000102000002022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-26图4黄金主力合约走势图20成交量万收盘价420407244051039037536002022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-26图5铁矿石主力合约走势图1000140成交量万收盘价120900839501008008070060406002050002022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-222022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09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072435095CLOSE09041030085400250800753902007015065380060370100550503602022-06-232022-08-302022-07-012022-07-112022-07-192022-07-272022-08-042022-08-122022-08-222022-09-072022-09-162022-09-262022-10-112022-10-192022-10-272022-11-042022-11-142022-11-222022-11-302022-12-082022-12-162022-12-262022-12-162022-07-052022-07-152022-07-272022-08-082022-08-182022-08-302022-09-092022-09-222022-10-112022-10-212022-11-022022-11-142022-11-242022-12-062022-06-23IMPVMA20UPLOW铁矿石期权持仓分布铁矿石期权持仓分布图铁矿石期权持仓变化图3000040002500030002000020001500010001000005000-10000-20005905909507101020500500530560620650680710740770800830860890920980102010805005305605906206506807407708008308608909209509801080OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC铁矿石期权最大未平仓铁矿石认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价1200110010009008007006005002022-07-222022-10-112022-12-052022-06-232022-06-282022-07-012022-07-062022-07-112022-07-142022-07-192022-07-272022-08-012022-08-042022-08-092022-08-122022-08-172022-08-222022-08-252022-08-302022-09-022022-09-072022-09-132022-09-162022-09-212022-09-262022-09-292022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-26铁矿石期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓铁矿石期权持仓量PCR铁矿石期权隐含波动率31083950900OIPCR80CLOSE26085070800602107505016070040110650300606002022-08-122022-09-262022-06-232022-07-012022-07-112022-07-192022-07-272022-08-042022-08-222022-08-302022-09-072022-09-162022-10-112022-10-192022-10-272022-11-042022-11-142022-11-222022-11-302022-12-082022-12-162022-12-262022-12-162022-07-052022-07-152022-07-272022-08-082022-08-182022-08-302022-09-092022-09-222022-10-112022-10-212022-11-022022-11-142022-11-242022-12-062022-06-23IMPVMA20UPLOW免责声明五矿期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构已具备有商品期货经纪金融期货经纪资产管理期货交易咨询等业务资格本刊所有信息均建立在可靠的资料来源基础上我们力求能为您提供精确的数据客观的分析和全面的观点但我们必须声明对所有信息可能导致的任何损失概不负责本报告并不提供量身定制的交易建议报告的撰写并未虑及读者的具体财务状况及目标五矿期货研究团队建议交易者应独立评估特定的交易和战略并鼓励交易者征求专业财务顾问的意见具体的交易或战略是否恰当取决于交易者自身的状况和目标文中所提及的任何观点都仅供参考不构成买卖建议版权声明本报告版权为五矿期货有限公司所有本刊所含文字数据和图表未经五矿期货有限公司书面许可任何人不得以电子机械影印录音或其它任何形式复制传播或存储于任何检索系统不经许可复制本刊任何内容皆属违反版权法行为可能将受到法律起诉并承担与之相关的所有损失赔偿和法律费用五矿期货分支机构深圳总部业务一部深圳市南山区滨海大道3165号五矿金融大厦13-16层电话400-888-5398电话0755-83252740业务二部业务三部电话0755-88917165电话0755-83752356业务四部业务五部电话010-68331868-183电话028-85053476深圳营业部北京分公司深圳市福田区福华三路1006号诺德大厦30D1北京市海淀区首体南路6号新世纪世行饭店写字楼1253室电话0755-83752310电话010-68332068上海分公司成都分公司上海市浦东新区向城路288号国华人寿金融大厦902903成都高新区天府大道北段1288号1幢3单元12层12041205电话021-58784529电话028-86131072青岛分公司北京营业部山东省青岛市东海西路35号太平洋中心1写字楼409北京市丰台区广安路9号院6号楼408409电话0532-85780820电话010-64185322广州营业部湛江营业部广东省广州市天河区珠江西路17号广晟国际大厦24楼2407广东省湛江市开发区乐山东路35号银隆广场12层A1210室电话020-29117582电话0759-2856220天津营业部西安营业部天津市滨海高新区华苑产业区梅苑路5号金座广场2101-陕西省西安市新城区纬什街新科路1号楼一层2102电话029-87572985电话022-23778878宁波中山西路营业部重庆营业部浙江省宁波市海曙区布政巷16号12楼1205室重庆市江北区江北城西大街25号11-1电话0574-87330527电话023-67078086郑州营业部南通营业部郑州市未来路69号未来大厦16层1612号江苏省南通市青年东路81号南通大饭店B楼财富中心2003室电话0371-65619030电话0513-81026105杭州民心路营业部台州爱华路营业部浙江省杭州市江干区万银大厦1408室浙江省台州市椒江区爱华新台州大厦8-A电话0571-81969926电话0576-89811511济南营业部昆明营业部山东省济南市历下区山大路201号天业科技商务大厦401云南省昆明市盘龙区北京路612号银海国际公寓D座3201室427室电话0871-63338532电话0531-83192255大连营业部唐山营业部辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路大连国际金融中心A座大连期河北省唐山市路北区军鑫里凤城国贸1楼21层2104号货大厦2001号电话0315-5936395电话0411-84800452武汉营业部湖北省武汉市江岸区三阳路8号天悦星辰A栋26楼2602室电话0755-23375007
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