相关政策放松。房地产风险暴露以及疫情形势是近年香港上市内地银行低估值的主要因素。然而，地产形势以及疫情形势正在好转。首先，一系列房地产市场支持政策不断出台。中国政府最近在贷款、债券融资、权益融资方面出台相关支持政策，拓宽房地产企业的融资渠道，预计将有效化解房地产风险。其次，疫情政策不断优化，预计将刺激需求，并推动经济复苏。在相关政策放松的背景下，我们预计中国经济将企稳并复苏。
　　估值触底。当前，香港上市内地银行的加权平均市净率仅为0.50倍左右，内地银行业的估值隐含不良率达21%，预计充分消化了可能对估值不利的因素，包括2023年第一季度的贷款重定价。
　　预期业绩好转。我们预计2022年第三季度营业收入增速将是最低点，2023年第二季度起将开始上行。
　　我们维持银行行业2023年“跑赢大市”投资评级。我们预计上述三个正面因素将支撑香港上市内地银行估值的改善。我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐。我们推荐招商银行(03968 HK)、邮储银行(01658 HK)。同时，我们亦推荐中银香港(02388 HK)、汇丰控股(00005 HK)，其受益于美联储持续加息，2023年盈利增速预计维持较好

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportBankingSectorRichardCao曹柱行业报告银行行业8675523976870zhucaogtjascomhk15December2022TableMainInfoNumerousPositiveFactorsExpectedtoSupportImprovement行inValuationsOutperform预计多重正面因素支撑估值改善跑赢大市业报RelaxationofrelevantpoliciesRiskexposuretotherealestateindustryTableInvestInfo告andlocalCovid-19epidemicconditionswerethemainfactorsdrivinglowRatingOutperformSectorReportvaluationsofmainlandChinesebankslistedinHongKonginrecentyearsMaintainedHowevertherealestateindustryisseeingsignsofrecoveryandthelocalCovid-19epidemicsituationisimprovingFirstaseriesofsupportivepolicies评级跑赢大市维持fortherealestatemarkethavebeenissuedbytheChinesegovernmentThesepoliciesaimtoexpandfinancingchannelsforrealestateenterprisesin2theformsofloansbondfinancingandequityfinancingwhichisexpectedtoeffectivelytackletheuncertaintiessurroundingtherealestateindustrySectorperformanceSecondanti-epidemicpolicieshavebeencontinuouslyoptimizedwhichis行业表现expectedtostimulatedemandandpromoteeconomicrecoveryGiventhe300relaxationofrelevantpoliciesweexpectthattheChineseeconomywill200100stabilizeandrecover00证-100告ValuationshavehitthebottomAtpresenttheweightedaveragePBfor-200券mainlandChinesebankslistedinHongKongisaround050xandtheNPL-300研报ratiowhichisimpliedbythecurrentvaluationofthemainlandbankingsector-400reached21whichisexpectedtohavefullypricedinthepossiblenegative-500究究-600factorsaffectingvaluationsincludingtherepricingofloansin1Q2023-700ResearchReport报研HSIIndexIndexofmainlandlistedbanks告ExpectedrecoveryoffinancialresultsWeexpectthatgrowthinoperating券incometobethelowestin3Q2022andstarttotrendupfrom2Q2023SourceBloombergEquity证WemaintainOutperformratingforthebankingsectorin2023WeBankingsectornetprofitandYoYexpectthattheabovementionedthreepositivefactorswillsupportgrowthimprovementofvaluationsofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongWepick银行业净利润及其同比增速mainlandbankswhowillbenefitmostfromtherelaxationofrealestate2500RMB10bn150industry-relatedpoliciesandmainlandbankswhosefinancialresults100performanceisexpectedtobebetterasourpriorityrecommendationsWe2000TrecommendCMB03968HKandPSBC01658HKMeawhilewealso501500arecommendBOCHK02388HKandHSBC00005HKwhowillbenefit00theUSFederalReservescontinuousinterestratehikesandearningsgrowth1000b-50500isexpectedtoremaingoodin2023-100银l00-150行相关政策放松房地产风险暴露以及疫情形势是近年香港上市内地银行低估值的主要因Jun-17Jun-18Jun-20Jun-21Jun-16Jun-19Jun-22Sep-15Sep-17Sep-18Sep-20Sep-21Sep-19Sep-22eSep-16Dec-15Dec-17Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-16Mar-17Mar-18Mar-20Mar-22Mar-19Mar-21素然而地产形势以及疫情形势正在好转首先一系列房地产市场支持政策不断出台Mar-16行中国政府最近在贷款债券融资权益融资方面出台相关支持政策拓宽房地产企业的融NetprofitYoYgrowth业资渠道预计将有效化解房地产风险其次疫情政策不断优化预计将刺激需求并推LSourceChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionGuotaiBankingSector动经济复苏在相关政策放松的背景下我们预计中国经济将企稳并复苏JunanInternationale估值触底当前香港上市内地银行的加权平均市净率仅为050倍左右内地银行业的估f值隐含不良率达21预计充分消化了可能对估值不利的因素包括2023年第一季度的t贷款重定价M预期业绩好转我们预计2022年第三季度营业收入增速将是最低点2023年第二季度起a将开始上行r我们维持银行行业2023年跑赢大市投资评级我们预计上述三个正面因素将支撑香港g上市内地银行估值的改善我们挑选最受益于房地产政策放松的内地银行以及业绩表现较好的内地银行作为我们的优先推荐我们推荐招商银行03968HK邮储银行01658HKi同时我们亦推荐中银香港02388HK汇丰控股00005HK其受益于美联储持续加息n2023年盈利增速预计维持较好SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of13TableInvestmentsuggestionsnvestmentSupportingSupportingpoliciesinfinancingbondSupportingpoliciesinSupportingpoliciesinloansSupportinganadakwoeiacaresultsfinancialwhosebanksmainlandwhobanksmainlandthepickWe321KongofrecoveryfinancialresultsareexpectedtobethecatalystsmainforimprovementvaluationsrecoveryandstabilizationKongHongWefinancingsupportiveriskliquidityofconditionsoperatingdevelopmenttheandstablesupportresolvetoorderin2022NovemberInmarketestaterealthestabilizetopoliciesRbankspoliciesfortherealestatethegivensignificantlysentimentdownturnedbanksabovementionedtheforrecom00005HK00005ealealmaintainearningsstarttotrendupfrom2Q2023WeexpectEtheintheVChinesethatwethewilleconomyrecoverexpectstabilizeandantiSecondindustryestatestimulatetoexpectediswhichoptimizedrealthesurroundinguncertaintiesthetacklechannelsforrealestateenterprisesintheformofloansbondfinancinretheforpoliciesCovidlocaltheandrecoveryofsignsseeingisindustryHoweveryearsrecentestateinrealKongHongtheinbankslistedChinesemainlandoflowvaluationsdrivingfactorsmainR1ealuationsxpectedrecoveryoffinancialresultsfinancialofrecoveryxpectedelaxationofelaxationmendThereforeweareexpectedremainto2023ingoodSesRtateNPLratioimpliedwithinealealefromMpossibleofmainlandbanksmainlandHongKongofbankslistedinthpoliciestoexpandthefinancingchannelsofrealestateenterprisesinenterprisesestaterealofchannelsfinancingtheexpandtopolicieswhoeeasuresChinaMerchantsBankChinaaehithaveeindustrylassOutperformtatetateriskexposureexposureriskthavehitpagwillrenegativefactorsnegativevaluationsforincludingtherepricingloansofin1Q2023industryemaintainmaintainbenefitfromthefrombenefitlevant-hbtoenhlweMeanwhilebottomthefoalestatemarkethavebeenissuedbytheChinesegovernmentThesepoliciesaimtoexpandfinancingexpandtoaimpoliciesThesegovernmentChinesethebyissuedbeenhavemarketestatealrelatedpoliciesrelatedrdisclaimerthebottomindustryandtheexpectedrecoveryoffinancialresfinancialofrecoveryexpectedthea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