9月中国经济继续温和改善，政策加力支持经济继续温和改善。
　　经济增长：9月投资、消费、出口增长均略有加快；服务业生产加快，工业生产平稳。
　　通货膨胀：9月CPI同比略有回落，而核心CPI同比稳定。
　　货币金融：9月社融增长加快，居民、企业与政府融资增长均加快

研究报告全文：InvestmentconsultingbusinessqualificationSECLicense2012No669投资咨询业务资格证监许可2012669号中国经济图观单击此处编辑母版标题样式ChinaEconomicWatchOctober2023刘道钰LiuDaoyu从业资格号QualificationNoF3061482投资咨询号InvestmentconsultingNoZ0016422EmailLiudaoyuciticsfcom桂晨曦GuiChenxiCFAPhD从业资格号QualificationNoF3023159投资咨询号InvestmentconsultingNoZ0013632EmailGuichenxiciticsfcomThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport重要提示本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用不构成对任何人的投资建议我司不会因为关注收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户市场有风险投资需谨慎Content目录经济增长通货膨胀货币金融EconomicgrowthInflationFinancialdata投资货币政策CPIInvestmentMacroPolicy消费社会融资规模PPIConsumptionAFRE外贸人民币贷款ForeignTradeRMBLoans工业与服务业M2与存款IndustryServicesM2RMBDeposits就业与GDP利率EmploymentandGDPInterestRatesClickthehyperlinkandjumptothespecificchapter点击链接跳转至相应章节ThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport总结Summary9月中国经济继续温和改善政策加力支持经济继续温和改善经济增长9月投资消费出口增长均略有加快服务业生产加快工业生产平稳通货膨胀9月CPI同比略有回落而核心CPI同比稳定货币金融9月社融增长加快居民企业与政府融资增长均加快ChinaeconomycontinuetoimprovemoderatelyinSeptemberandenhancedpolicysupportforcontinuedmildeconomicimprovementEconomicgrowthInSeptemberthegrowthofinvestmentconsumptionandexportallacceleratedslightlyTheproductionofservicesalsogrewfasterwhilethegrowthofindustrialproductionwassteadyInflationdataInSeptemberCPIYoYfellslightlywhilethecoreCPIYoYwasthesameaslastmonthFinancialdataInSeptembertheAggregateFinancingtotheRealEconomyAFREgrewfasterThefinancingtohouseholdsenterprisesandgovernmentallgrewfasterThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport总结SummarySeptemberCHINADATAAugustJulyJuneexpectedFixedassetinvestmentaccumulatedYoY3131323438投资消费TotalretailsalesofconsumergoodsYoY5549462531ExportUSDYoY-62-76-88-145-124进出口ImportUSDYoY-62-57-73-124-69CPIYoY000201-0300通货膨胀PPIYoY-25-24-30-44-54Value-addedofIndustriesYoY4546453744经济数据IndexofServicesProductionYoY69685768Urbansurveyedunemploymentrate50525352AFREflow100millionyuan412002620031200528242242金融数据OutstandingAFREYoY9091908990M2YoY103106106107113CHINADATA2023Q3expected2023Q22023Q12022Q42022Q3GDPYoY494563452939AccumulatedGDPYoY524955453030ThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreportContent目录1经济增长Economicgrowth11投资Investment12消费Consumption13外贸ForeignTrade14工业与服务业IndustryandServices15就业与GDPEmploymentandGDP2通货膨胀Inflationdata3货币金融FinancialdataThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11投资Investment9月固定资产投资增长加快其中房地产基建与制造业投资增长均有所加快InSeptemberChinafixedassetinvestmentgrowthacceleratedIntermsofmajorcategoriestheinvestmentinbothinfrastructureandmanufacturinggrewfasterwhilerealestateinvestmentdeacceleratedslightlyMonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoYAccumulatedfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY固定资产投资房地产基建制造业固定资产投资房地产基建制造业FixedAssetInvestmentRealEstateInfrastructureManufacturingFixedAssetInvestmentRealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing252520two-yearaveragegrowthratein202120two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021151510105500-5-5-10-10-15-20-15Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11投资InvestmentTableChinafixedassetinvestmentgrowthrateandMoMchangeofthegrowthrateFixedassetRealestateInfrastructureManufacturinginvestmentinvestmentinvestmentinvestmentAccumulatedYoYgrowthratefromJanuarytoSeptember31-918662MoMchangeofaccumulatedYoYgrowthrate-01-03-0403SeptemberYoYgrowthrate24-1126879MoMchangeofYoYgrowthrate06-030608Septembertwo-yearaveragegrowthrate45-11711492MoMchangeoftwo-yearaveragegrowthrate04070704Septemberfour-yearaveragegrowthrate36-425678MoMchangeoffour-yearaveragegrowthrate-06-050404TableThegrowthrateofrealestateindicatorandMoMchangeofgrowthrateAccumulatedSeptemberSeptemberchangerateMoMchangeofYoYYoYcomparedwith2019changerateFloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssold-75-101-29847Floorspaceofbuildingsnewlystarted-234-146-59749Floorspaceofbuildingsunderconstruction-71-71----Floorspaceofbuildingscompleted198253----Investmentinrealestatedevelopment-91-112-157-18LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11房地产Realestate9月商品房销售面积季节性回升同比降幅略有收窄10月以来继续边际改善ThefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldreboundedseasonallyinSeptemberwithaslightnarrowinginYoYdeclineandhascontinuedtoimprovemarginallysinceOctoberFloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30Nationalfloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldmajorcities7-daymovingaverage100001000020232022202120202019sqm2023202220202019sqm3000010090250008070200006015000504010000302050001000JFMAMJJASOND1-Jan1-Feb1-Mar1-Apr1-May1-Jun1-Jul1-Aug1-Sep1-Oct1-Nov1-DecLiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11房地产Realestate9月商品房销售与房屋新开工面积相对于2019年同期的降幅收窄而房地产投资增速回落Themagnitudeofdecreasecomparedwiththesameperiodin2019ofthefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldandthefloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartednarrowedwhilethegrowthofinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentsloweddownGrowthratesofRealEstateIndicatorsinasingleRealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthYoYmonthcomparedwiththesameperiodin2019two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021Growthrateoffloorspacesoldcomparedwith2019FloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldYoYGrowthrateoffloorspacenewlystartedcomparedwith2019FloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoYGrowthrateofrealestateinvestmentcomparedwith2019InvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY3020two-yearaveragegrowthratein202120101000-10-10-20-20-30-30-40-40-50-50-60-60-70-70Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23Aug-23Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11房地产Realestate1-9月房屋施工面积增速回落而房屋竣工面积增速维持高位9月土地成交回升但仍较弱FromJanuarytoSeptembertheYoYgrowthrateoffloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructiondeclinedwhilethegrowthrateoffloorspaceofbuildingscompletedremainsrelativelyhighInSeptembertheplannedconstructionareaoflandsoldin100majorcitiesreboundedbutwasrelativelyweakAccumulatedfloorspaceofbuildingsunderPlannedconstructionareaoflandsoldin100constructionandcompletedYoYmajorcities10000squaremetersAccumulatedFloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionYoY1000020232022202120202019sqmAccumulatedFloorspaceofbuildingscompletedYoY40000252035000153000010250005020000-515000-1010000-155000-20-250Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23JFMAMJJASONDLiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11房价HousingPrices70MajorCitiesNewHousingPricesMoM70MajorCitiesNewHousingPricesYoY70CitiesTier1Tier2Tier370CitiesTier1Tier2Tier3104000806300040220000100-02-0400-06-08-100Jan-19Oct-19Jul-20Apr-21Jan-22Oct-22Jul-23Jan-11Nov-12Sep-14Jul-16May-18Mar-20Jan-22Second-handHousingPricesMoMSecond-handHousingPricesYoY70CitiesTier1Tier2Tier370CitiesTier1Tier2Tier31640012300080420000100-0400-08-12-100Jan-19Oct-19Jul-20Apr-21Jan-22Oct-22Jul-23Jan-11Nov-12Sep-14Jul-16May-18Mar-20Jan-22LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11基建投资Infrastructureinvestment9月基建投资增速略有回升SeptemberinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthacceleratedslightlyInfrastructureInvestmentYoYAccumulatedInfrastructureInvestmentYoYProductionandSupplyofElectricityGasandWaterCurrentyearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoYTransportStorageandPostInfrastructureInvestmentinasinglemonthYoYManagementofWaterConservancyEnvironmentandPublicFacilities20two-yearaveragegrowthratein202130two-yearaveragegrowthratein20211510205100-50-10-15-10-20-20-25-30-30Dec-18Sep-19Jun-20Mar-21Dec-21Sep-22Jun-23Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22Aug-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11制造业投资Manufacturinginvestment9月制造业投资增长加快InvestmentinmanufacturingindustrygrewfasterinSeptemberMoMchangeofAccumulatedYoYaccumulatedYoYManufacturingInvestment6203OfwhichProcessingoffoodfromagriculturalproducts65-03Manufactureoffoods7547Textileindustry-22-07Manufactureofchemicalproducts13503Manufactureofmedicine-02-08Smeltingandpressingofnon-ferrousmetal9914Manufactureofmetalproducts1721Manufactureofgeneralpurposemachinery5103Manufactureofspecialpurposemachinery8207Manufactureofautomobiles20413Manufactureoftransportationequipment3139Manufactureofelectricalmachineryandapparatus381-05Manufactureofelectronicproductsandequipment10207LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11制造业投资Manufacturinginvestment9月末制造业中长期贷款增速高达3821-8月制造业利润同比-137TheYoYgrowthrateofmidlong-termloanbalancestothemanufacturingindustrywasashighas382inSeptemberwhilethetotalprofitofthemanufacturingindustrygrewby-137YoYfromJanuarytoAugustOutstandingmidlong-termloansandtotalInvestmentinmanufacturingindustryYoYprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoYCurrentyearcumulativeinvestmentinmanufacturingYoYOutstandingmidlong-termLoanstomanufacturingindustryYoYManufacturingindustryinvestmentinasinglemonthYoYCurrentyearcumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY30two-yearaveragegrowthratein20215040203010200100-10-10-20-20-30-30-40-40-50Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport12消费Consumption9月消费增速回升SeptemberconsumptiongrewatafasterpaceTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYAccumulatedTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYAccumulatedTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYtwoorfouryearAccumulatedTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYtwoorfouraveragegrowthratein2021and2023respectivelyyearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023respectively3535303025252020151510105500-5-5-10-10-15-15-20-20-25-25Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport12消费Consumption9月消费增速回升主要因为商品消费增长加快SeptemberconsumptiongrewatafasterpaceduetocommodityconsumptiongrowthacceleratedCommodityRetailandCateringIncomeYoYCommodityRetailandCateringIncomeYoYexcludingbaseeffectCommodityRetailYoYIncomeofCateringIndustryYoYCommodityRetailYoYIncomeofCateringIndustryYoYtwoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023respectively5015401030520010-50-10-10-15-20-20-30-25Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport12消费Consumption房地产相关消费维持偏弱Realestate-relatedconsumptionwasrelativelyweakSeptembertwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofretailsalesofenterprisesabovethedesignatedsizebycategoryTwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsChangeofgrowthratecomparedwiththelastmonth-100-80-60-40-200020406080100120Total56CommodityRetail56IncomeofCateringIndustry63Petroleumproducts95Food84Motorvehicles84Sportsandamusements69Medicines69Beverage64Tobaccoandliquor60Goldsilverandjewelry48Clothesshoeshatsandtextiles46Dailynecessities31Telecommunicationequipment31Cosmetics-08Culturalandofficeappliances-31Furniture-35Householdappliances-42Buildinganddecorationmaterials-82LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport12消费Consumption三季度居民收入增长有所加快三季度全国居民人均可支配收入两年平均增长62比二季度高07个百分点ThegrowthofresidentsincomeacceleratedinQ3In2023Q3thetwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofnationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentswas6207higherthan2023Q2ResidentsIncomeandConsumptionGrowthUnemploymentRateandIncomeGrowthCurrentyearaccumulativeResidentsIncomeYoYQuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoYtwo-yearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023CurrentyearaccumulativeRetailSalesYoYQuarterlyUnemploymentRaterightaxis12twoyearaveragegrowthratein2021and202310608584856054652-450-8448-1246244-1642-20040Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Dec-18Sep-19Jun-20Mar-21Dec-21Sep-22Jun-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport13出口Export9月出口显著回升中国出口金额美元环比增长50增速较高可能因为外需阶段性改善SeptemberexportsreboundedChinasexportvalueincreasedby50MoMwitharelativelyhighgrowthratepossiblyduetoaphasedimprovementinexternaldemandChinamonthlyexportvalueandquantityYoYtwo-yearaveragegrowthragein2021SeptemberexportMoMovertheyears出口金额美元当月同比出口数量指数当月同比14ExportUSDchangeYoYExportQuantitychangeYoY2512201015810650455393940252116182-50-1000-15-2-20-4-27-29Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-2320132014201520162017201820192020202120222023LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport13出口ExportSeptemberexportMoMchangebydestinationSeptemberexportMoMchangebydestination100millionUSD-50050100150200-100102030Total1434Total50UnitedStates99UnitedStates22EuropeanUnion22EuropeanUnion05ASEAN121ASEAN28LatinAmerica-67LatinAmerica-29Africa26Africa18HongKongChina605HongKongChina282TaiwanChina48TaiwanChina80Japan229Japan192SouthKorea77SouthKorea65Australia37Australia60UnitedKingdom53UnitedKingdom77Russian34Russian37India130India130Brazil-43Brazil-78LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport