研究报告全文：18Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaTechnologyMaintainImplicationsoftheUSsupdatedchiprestrictionstoglobaldomesticSPEandGPUcompaniesTheUSDepartmentofCommerceannouncedanewsetofrestrictionson17ChinaTechnologySectorOctlinkthatstrengthens1exportcontrolsonadvancedchipswithnewparametersandexpansionto40morecountries2exportcontrolsofchipAlexNGmanufacturingequipmentto21morecountriesand3additionof13Chinese85239000881entitiesontotheUSEntityListWebelievenewrulesarelargelyin-linewithalexngcmbicomhkexpectationsandnewsmediaon3OctlinkOverallthisisanupdatetoUSrestrictionsreleasedinOct2022ournotewhichwebelieveaimstolimittheClaudiaLIUaccesstoadvancedchipstoolsinlinewithnewDutchandJapaneserulesourclaudialiucmbicomhknoteandcloseloopholesinexportrestrictionsontailored-madeAIchipsegA800H800InourviewtheUSsrecentexportcontrolsandCHIPSActwillHanqingLIlihanqingcmbicomhkacceleratethelocalizationofsemiequipmentfoundriesinChinagivensupplychainsecurityconcernsandgeopoliticaltensionsDespiterecentmacroweaknessandshort-termcyclicaldownturnwebelievesemilocalizationremainsthestructuralgrowthdriverinthelongrunWhatarethenewrules1Parameterchangesforadvancedchipstheexistingparameterinterconnectbandwidthforadvancedchipsisreplacedbyanewparameterperformancedensitythresholdtopreventworkaroundslikechipletstechnology2Expansionofadvancedchiptoolexportcontrolsto4021morecountriesthisruleaimstorestrictchipexportstofirmswithparentcoheadquarteredinChina313ChinesefirmsaddedtotheUSEntityListthelistincludestwoGPUcompaniesBirenTechandMooreThreadswhichaimstorestrictthedevelopmentofdomesticAIchipsontopofaccesslimitstoNvidiaAMDAIchipsDiverseimpactsonglobaldomesticGPUcompaniesWhileNvidiaAMDIntelsadvancedchipexportstoChinawillbeimpactedintheneartermtheupdatedrulesdonotrestrictaccesstoUSoralliedcloudcomputingservicesthroughIaaSinthemeantimeFordomesticnamestwoChineseGPUcompaniesBirenTech壁仞科技MooreThreads摩尔线程areaddedontotheEntityListandtheirmajorproductsaregeneral-purposeGPUsdesignedforserversintheChinamarketWebelievethisrestrictionwillimpacttheirproductionplanandcustomerbaseexpansionoverseasWeexpecttheywillmovefromoverseasfoundriesTSMCSamsungtodomesticadvancedprocessfoundriesSMICforfoundryservicessimilartoCambricon寒武纪andLoongson龙芯LimitedimpactonglobalSPEpositivetodomesticSPEfoundryASMLstatedthenewruleswouldapplytoalimitednumberoffabsinChinainvolvedinadvancedchipsmanufacturinganddidnotexpectamaterialRelatedReportsimpactonitsfinancialoutlookfor2023andforlonger-termscenariosFor1ImplicationsofDutchadditionaldomesticnamesweexpectNauraandAMECtocontinuetobenefitfromexportcontrol-3Jul2023linkacceleratedSPElocalizationanddomesticIDMfoundryexpansion2ImplicationsofUSsnewchipValuationTableexportrestrictionstoChina-10MktCapPricePExPBxROEOct2022linkNameTicker3USmaybroadenAIchipsUSmnLCFY23EFY24EFY23EFY23Eexportrestrictions-14Sep2022SMIC981HK3036120552172141047linkHuaHongSemi1347HK592219681241390871Naura002371CH178672466736728257159AMEC688012CH14044166206395576097Cambricon688256CH657511547--99140SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk18Oct2023Figure1USBIStostrengthenrestrictionsonadvancedcomputingsemiconductorssemiconductormanufacturingequipmentandsupercomputingitemstocountriesofconcernSourceUSBISbisdocgovPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE218Oct2023Rule1AdvancedComputingChipsRuleACSIFRTheeffectivedateforthisrulewillbeNovember162023andthedeadlineforpubliccommentsis60daysfromthedatetheruleisputonpublicdisplayTheACSIFRretainsthestringentPRC-widelicensingrequirementsimposedintheOctober72022ruleandmakestwocategoriesofupdates1Adjustingtheparametersthatdeterminewhetheranadvancedcomputingchipisrestricted2ImposingnewmeasurestoaddressrisksofcircumventionofthecontrolsincludinganexpansionofcontrolstoadditionalcountriesPart1ParameterChangesBasedonpubliccommentsrecenttechnologicaldevelopmentsandanalysisofthepriorrulesnationalsecurityimpacttheACSIFRremovesinterconnectbandwidthasaparameterforidentifyingrestrictedchipsTherulealsoRestrictstheexportofchipsiftheyexceedeitheroftwoparameters1Thepre-existingperformancethresholdsetintheOctober7ruleor2Anewperformancedensitythresholdwhichisdesignedtopre-emptfutureworkaroundsCreatesalicenseexceptionforshipmentsofcertainlower-performancechipsUndernewLicenseExceptionNotifiedAdvancedComputingNACfollowingreceiptofnotificationforexportsandre-exportstoMacauanddestinationsidentifiedassubjecttoaUSarmsembargoincludingChinatheUSgovernmentwilldeterminewithin25dayswhetherthetransactionmayproceedunderthelicenseexceptionorinsteadrequirealicenseLicenseExceptionNACmaybeusedforexportsre-exportsandtransfersin-countrytoorwithinothercountrieswithoutpriornotificationAspartoftheseupdatesanexemptionthatwillpermittheexportofchipsforconsumerapplicationswasalsointroducedPart2CircumventionPreventionEstablishesaworldwidelicensingrequirementforanycompanythatisheadquarteredinMacauoradestinationsubjecttotheUSarmsembargoincludingthePRCorwhoseultimateparentcompanyisheadquarteredinthosecountriestopreventfirmsfromcountriesofconcernfromsecuringcontrolledchipsthroughtheirforeignsubsidiariesandbranchesCreatesnewredflagsandadditionalduediligencerequirementundertheUSpersonscontrolsThiswillmakeiteasierforfoundriestoassesswhetherforeignpartiesareattemptingtocircumventthecontrolsImposesadditionallicenserequirementsonexportstomorethan40additionalcountriesthatpresentaheightenedriskfordiversiontoChinaThiswillhelpaddresspotentialtransshipmentbynon-PRCcompaniespurchasingchipsforresaletoChinaandprovidegreatervisibilityintoprocurementnetworksandcustomersofthesechipsImprovesunderstandingabouttransactionsbycollectinginformationontheexportoflessadvancedchipsthroughthenotificationprocessdescribedaboveforexportsandre-exportstoMacauanddestinationssubjecttoUSarmsembargoIncludesarequestforpubliccommentsonmultipletopicsincludinginfrastructureasaserviceIaaSprovidersadditionalcomplianceguidancethatcouldbeprovidedtofoundriesreceivingchipdesignstheapplicationofcontrolsondeemedexportsanddeemedre-exportsanddefiningheadquarteredcompaniesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE318Oct2023Rule2ExportControlsonSemiconductorManufacturingItemsInterimFinalRuleSMEIFRTheeffectivedateforthisruleis30daysafterpublicinspectionontheFederalRegisterwebsiteexcepttheTemporaryGeneralLicenseandthedeadlineforpubliccommentsis60daysfromthedatethattheruleisputonpublicinspectionKeychangesmadetotheOctober72022ruleincludeImposescontrolsonadditionaltypesofsemiconductormanufacturingequipmentRefinesandbetterfocusestheUSpersonsrestrictionswhilecodifyingpreviouslyexistingagencyguidanceExpandinglicenserequirementsforsemiconductormanufacturingequipmenttoapplytoadditionalcountriesbeyondthePRCandMacauto21othercountriesforwhichtheUSmaintainsanarmsembargoRule3AdditionstotheEntityListTheeffectivedateforthisruleisOctober172023BISisaddingtotheEntityListtwoPRCentitiesandtheirsubsidiariesatotalof13entitiesinvolvedinthedevelopmentofadvancedcomputingchipsthathavebeenfoundtobeengagedinactivitiescontrarytoUSnationalsecurityandforeignpolicyinterestsTheseentitieswillalsobesubjecttorestrictionsonforeign-produceditemsmadewithUStechnologyFoundriesproducingchipsfortheselistedpartieswillneedaBISlicensebeforethefoundriesmaysendsuchchipstotheseentitiesorpartiesactingonbehalfoftheseentitiesasaresultofapplyingthefootnote4EntityListforeigndirectproductruledesignationFigure213newentitiestobeaddedontoUSBISsEntityListEnglishNameChineseName1BeijingBirenTechnologyDevelopmentCoLtd北京壁仞科技开发有限公司2GuangzhouBirenIntegratedCircuitCoLtd广州壁仞集成电路有限公司3HangzhouBirenTechnologyDevelopmentCoLtd杭州壁仞科技开发有限公司4LightCloudHangzhouTechnologyCoLtd光线云杭州科技有限公司5MooreThreadsIntelligentTechnologyBeijingCoLtd摩尔线程智能科技北京有限公司6MooreThreadsIntelligentTechnologyChengduCoLtd摩尔线程智能科技成都有限公司7MooreThreadsIntelligentTechnologyShanghaiCoLtd摩尔线程智能科技上海有限公司8ShanghaiBirenInformationTechnologyCoLtd上海壁仞信息科技有限公司9ShanghaiBirenIntegratedCircuitCoLtd上海壁仞集成电路有限公司10ShanghaiBirenIntelligentTechnologyCoLtd上海壁仞智能科技有限公司11SuperburningSemiconductorNanjingCoLtd超燃半导体南京有限公司12SuzhouXinyanHoldingsCoLtd上海新之砾企业发展有限公司13ZhuhaiBirenIntegratedCircuitCoLtd珠海壁仞集成电路有限公司SourceUSBISCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE418Oct2023Figure3MooreThreadsannouncementFigure4BirenTechnologysannouncementSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure5BirenTechnologysGPUsBR100andBR104SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure6MooreThreadsGPUsMTTS80andMTTS3000SourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE518Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6