>> 招银国际-Technology(Hardware／Semi)：Quick note on newly announced restrictions on advanced AI chips-231018
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研究报告全文：18Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateTechnologyHardwareSemiQuicknoteonnewlyannouncedrestrictionsOUTPERFORMMaintainonadvancedAIchipsMultiplemediaoutletsonTuesdayhavereportedtheUSistighteningChinaTechnologySectorexportcontrolsforAIchipswhichisexpectedtofurtherlimittheabilityofNvidiaandothermanufacturerstosellhigh-performancesemiconductorstoLilyYangPhDChina85239163716lilyyangcmbicomhkNvidiasresponseNvidiasresponsedoesnotexpectanear-termKevinZhangmeaningfulimpactonfinancialresultsfollowingUSexpansionofexport85237618727controlstoChinaacompanyspokespersonsaysinanemailtokevinzhangcmbicomhkBloombergHowevertheCompanyexecutiveshavesaidblanketbansonexportstoChinawouldaffectthelong-termgrowthoftheUSchipRelatedReportsindustry1TechnologyHardwareSemiThematicinvestmentandOurthoughtsWementionedthisgeopoliticalriskinourlatestreportlinkmegatrendRidingtheAIwaveintoIftheUSfurthertightenscurbsonAIchipexporttoChinaanupdateisthenextphase16Oct2023linkexpectedinOctoberthismaynegativelyimpacttherevenueformany2HardwareOpticaltransceiversImplicationsfromCoherent2Q23companieslikeNvidiaAMDetcresultsandguidance18Aug2023linkBreakingdownbygeographyNvidiasrevenuefromChinafellalmost3HardwareOpticaltransceiversInvestorsexpectspectacularwithintherangeof20-25duringthepastthreeyearsHoweverweresultsintheAIinfrastructurearmsexpecttheimpactwillbelessthan20-25race14Aug2023linkCurrentestimatedA800revenuefromChinaisUS5bnChinesecompaniesAlibabaBABATencentBaiduBIDUandTikTok-ownerByteDancecollectivelyorderedaround5bnworthofNvidiasA800chipsfordeliverythisyearandnextaccordingtoFinancialTimesButtheimpactcouldbemorethanUS5bnifconsideringapossiblebroadergeographyrestrictionInAugusttheUSexpandedtheexportrestrictionssophisticatedNvidiaandAMDAIchipsbeyondChinatootherregionsincludingsomecountriesintheMiddleEastperReutersFuturecatalystspotentialimpactonHuaweiinthefutureAccordingtoBloombergtheUShasbegunaformalinvestigationintotheHuaweiphoneItisimportanttonotethatanypotentialrestrictionsonHuaweiorSMICwouldbeaseparateprocessfromthenewexportcontrolrulesrecentlyimplementedListofnamescouldbepotentiallyimpactedbytheupdatedrestrictionsAMDAMDUSIntelINTCUSKLAKLACUSLamResearchLRCXUSandAppliedMaterialsAMATUSPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk18Oct2023Figure1NVDAsquarterlyearningsUSbnQ2guidance53QoQgrowthQ3guidance18QoQgrowth2016151411108877776665545301Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q23NVDArevenueguidanceNVDArevenueactualSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2NvidiasrevenuefromChinaalmostfellwithintherangeof20-251Q20-2Q2310080604020252423252628262524221916222001Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23RevenuefromChinaRestSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3HowarethenewrulesdifferentthistimeHowarethenewrulesdifferentthistime1Thepreviousrulesimposedatwo-prongedtestconsideringbothachipscomputingpoweranditsabilitytocommunicatewithotherchipswhichiscrucialinAIsupercomputersCompanieslikeNvidiaandInteltailoredspecialchipsforChinathatmaintainedstrongcomputingcapabilitieswhilelimitingcommunicationspeedstocomplywiththepreviousrulesHoweverthenewruleseliminatecommunicationspeedlimitsandfocussolelyoncomputingperformanceThischangewillstopsalesofNvidiasA800andH800chipsinChina2AdditionallythenewmeasuresintroducearestrictionbasedonperformancedensitywhichmeasureshowmuchcomputingpowercanbepackedintoagivenamountofsiliconThisisaimedatpreventingcompaniesfromcircumventingrulesbyusingchiplettechnologywheresmallpiecescalledchipletsarecombinedtocreatealargechipthatwouldviolatetheregulations3Themeasuresalsoexpandlicensingrequirementsforexportingadvancedchipstoover40additionalcountrieswithdiversionriskstoChinaandsubjecttoUSarmsembargoesThisbuildsonapreviousrestrictionimposedonNvidiawhichlimitedshipmentsofA100andH100chipsbeyondChinaincludingsomeMiddleEasterncountries4FurthermorechipswillbeprohibitedfrombeingsenttosubsidiariesofcompaniesheadquarteredinChinaMacauandotherarmsembargoedcountriestopreventillegalsmugglingintoChinaorremoteaccessbyChineseparentcompanies5LastbutnotleasttheBidenadministrationimposedlicensingrequirementsforchipmakingtoolson21countriesoutsideofChinaandhasexpandedthelistofequipmentprohibitedfrombeingsenttoChinaSourceReutersBloombergFinancialTimesCNBCCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE218Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3
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