研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary17Oct2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报AsianIGspacetightened1-2bpsthismorningNewissuesKDBstightenedGlennKoCFA高志和2-3bpsFlowsonfront-endIGnameswerecontinuedtobetwo-wayactive85236576235GLPSPsfurtherdown025to2ptsbymid-daypostyesterdays125-38ptsglennkocmbicomhkdropOpportunitiesfromtenderoffersandrepurchasesOurpicksareCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩AACTECsCPDEV575PerpHRNITHsGRWALL395PerpNWDEVL85239000801PerpsNWSZFPerpsLEEMANPerpUPLLINPerpSeebelowcyrenangcmbicomhkChinaEconomyDeflationmaygraduallyalleviateaftercreditlooseningCMBImaintainsforecastonCPIgrowthat06for2023and2for2024ThePPIisexpectedtodrop27in2023andrise13in2024JerryWang王世超Seebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearch85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点YesterdayovernightUST10yryieldstightened7bpsto463WesawactiveflowonfrontendbankT2CNSGKRleasingTMTSOEwithRMPBssellingandonshoreaccountsbuyingChineseTMTSOEbenchmarksgrinded1-3bpstighterInthehigh-betaTMTsMEITUAXIAOMI30stightened3-6bpsInfinancialsBCHINAICBCAS28-30stightened2-3bpsOCBCSP24sDBSSP25stightened1-2bpsChineseAT1ssuchasBCHINAICBCASPerpsgrinded01pthigherAMCspacewasmixedHRINTHswereunchangedto025ptlowerWhilstCCAMCLORIEAS30-31swere3-5bpstighterInthenon-ChinaspacetherecentnewBBLTB28s33sedged2bpstighterSUMIBK28s33swere1-2bpstighterunderbetterbuyingfromPBsHKIGsHKAAHKLSP28-33stightened1-3bpsInHKCorpperpsCKINF42Perpincreased19ptsCKPH38PerpLIFUNG525Perpwere03-04pthigherNWDEVLPerpswereup02ptHKChinesepropertiesweremixedROADKG25swere22ptshigherOntheotherhandCSCHCNsstayedrange-boundCSCHCN9062624gained21ptswhilsttherestofCSCHCN24sdeclined1-2ptsGEMDAL24andCHJMAO29lowered18ptsand26ptsrespectivelyLNGFORsdropped15-25ptsYLLGSP24-26sweredown06-08ptPINGREswere04-07ptlowerInindustrialsEHICAR2426moved1-15ptshigherAACTEC2631wereup03-06ptInMacaugamingnamesMPELSANLTD28-30swere06-09ptlowerInIndianspaceVEDLN24-26sgained05-07ptAZUPOEsclosed05-1ptloweraftergaining25-35ptslastFridayIndonesiannamesLMRTSPBUMAIJ26swere03-04pthigherElsewhereGLPSP25closed38ptslowerwhileGLPCHI2426fell33-35ptsFitchdowngradedGLPPtebytwonotchestoBBfromBBB-TheLGFVPerpspaceshadaquietsessionandflowsweremostlyfromChineseAMsdeployingcashinLGFVshigh-betaIGnamesInLGFVsthePLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk117Oct20236-7papersZHAPIE25sJNHITE23swereup01-02ptThehigher-yieldingnamesGSHIAVGSELECremainedsoughtafterKMRLGP24wastraded06pthigheramidtwo-wayflowsHoweverChongqingnamesCQNANA26sweredown02ptElsewhereCPDEV575Perpwas1ptlowerSOEperpswerestablewhileflowswerelightCHCOMU3425PerpCHINEV38Perpwere02pthigherHUANEN308PerpCHSCOI34Perpwereup01ptFRESHK25-26swere03pthigherInsurerpapersZHONANSUNSHG26swere03-06pthigherLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeROADKG609042549022GLPSP378060425662-38CSCHCN906262450321GLPCHI295032926589-35CKINF42PERP69219GLPCHI4974022624882-33EHICAR73411142480615FAEACO738PERP839-30EHICAR709212662410CHJMAO414072329626-26MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroSP106Dow093andNasdaq120ralliedonMondayThepresidentofPhiladelphiaFedsaidFedshouldnotcreatenewpressuresintheeconomybyincreasingthecostofborrowingPBOCinjectedthelargestscaleMLFin2023forRMB789bntoaddliquiditytobanksystemTheUSTyieldcurvemovedhigheryesterday251030yieldreached509472471487respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点OpportunitiesfromtenderoffersandrepurchasesOurpicksYTDAsiaexAustraliaNewZealandandJPissuershadtender-offeredandrepurchasedUSDbondstotaledUSD68bninprincipalamountexclconvertiblebondsvsUSD156bnin2022cUSD109bnover10M22Theactiveearlyredemptionexcludingcalloverthepast2yearswasattributabletodistressedbondperppricesimprovingaccessibilitytocheaperonshorefundingaswellasstrongerUSDamidratehikesIssuerswithalternativefundingchannelsearlyredeemsbondsperpsatdiscounttodeleveragecutinterestexpensesandreduceforexexposureTheearlyredemptionscouldalsoimprovePLthroughthenon-recurringgainfromtenderoffersorrepurchasesatdiscountandsavingininterestexpensesSomeofthetenderofferscamealongwithconcurrentnewissuessuchasthepartialtenderofferandconcurrentnewissueofHHcouldhelplengthenissuersdebtmaturityprofilesWeexpecttenderoffersandrepurchasestocontinuetocomeespeciallyfromissuerswithaccesstocheaperalternativeliquiditysourcesandtheirbondsperpsaretradingatdiscountWeareparticularlyinterestedinperpswithcouponresetandorlargestep-upaswellasthosewiththecalldateseffectivelytobethefirstmaturitiesoftherespectiveissuersOurpicksareAACTECsCPDEV575PerpHRNITHsGRWALL395PerpNWDEVLPerpsNWSZFPerpsLEEMANPerpUPLLINPerpSeethetable3and4fortenderoffersandrepurchasesYTD217Oct2023Table1YTMYTCofourpicksAmtOutAskYTMYTCNextcallCouponSecurityNameUSDmnPriceAskAskdatestep-upbpsAACTEC2060226231258618790252026-AACTEC3060231292127228891232031-AACTEC3112724276829547457327112023-CPDEV575PERP50079714730211142024400GRWALL395PERP4009331191383172024500HRINTH305292490097679---HRINTH4PERP2508701171233092025300HRINTH5011625140096090---LEEMAN5PERP216759041372542952024500NWDEVL4PERP12005291422161032028300NWDEVL615PERP5007681312761632025300NWSZF5PERP10209881281223112024500UPLLIN5PERP400759106285272202525SourceBloombergClickhereforfullreportChinaEconomyDeflationmaygraduallyalleviateaftercreditlooseningChinasCPIgrowthslightlyedgeddownfrom01inAugto0inSepwhichfellshortofmarketexpectationat02TheslowdownoffoodandenergypricesisthemajordragofsoftenedCPICoreCPIremainedunchangedat08asconsumerdemandslowlyimprovedTheYoYdeclineofChinasPPIcontinuedtonarrowthankstorallyingrawmaterialpricesespeciallyinminingandenergysectorThePBOCwasconcernedaboutthedeflationastheMonetaryPolicyCommitteesaidinSeptembertofacilitateareboundofpriceaheadThedeflationincreasedreal-terminterestratesanddebtburdenoftherealsectorItalsohadnegativeimpactondurableconsumptionandbusinesscapexLookingforwardweseeagradualalleviationofdeflationasCPImaymildlypickupwhilePPImaycontinuetonarrowtheYoYdeclinesthankstocreditlooseninggradualdemandimprovementandbaseeffectaheadWemaintainforecastonCPIgrowthat06for2023and2for2024ThePPIisexpectedtodrop27in2023andrise13in2024TheshrinkageofproducerdeflationpointstoaprobablegradualimprovementofindustrialearningsaheadCPIgrowthdroppedtozeroduetothedragoffoodpriceandslowdowninenergypriceCPIcameinshortofexpectationedgingdownto0YoYinSepafterrising01inAugInsequentialtermsCPImoderatedto02from03inAugTheretractedCPIYoYgrowthismainlydrivenbythefoodpriceduetoahigheryear-agobaseFoodCPInoticeablydropped32YoYfrom17astheporkpricedropped22YoYinSepfrom179dropinAugPorksequentialgrowthmoderatedfrom114MoMto02inSepAsnumberoflivepigsinstockandbreedingsowsisstillelevatedweexpectthedragfromporkpricefoodCPIwillnotendjustyetThesurgeinenergypricesloweddownasvehiclefuelnarroweditsYoYdeclinefrom45to11whilepublicutilitypriceexpanded05afterrising03MoMgrowthofvehiclefuelmoderatedfrom48to23CoreCPIgrowthremainedunchangedat08DemandindurableswhichhadthegreatestimpactonproductionoutputwasstillweakasCPIintransportvehicleshomeappliancesandtelecomequipmentstayedsoftServicesCPIgrowthstayedunchangedinSepat13YoYalthoughitsMoMgrowthslowedfrom01inAugto-01inSepaftertwomonthsofrobustgrowthduringthesummerholidayMoMgrowthoftourismfurtherdeterioratedto-34from-11EmploymentconditionremainedchallengingashousingrentfellintocontractionPPIcontinuedtonarrowitsYoYdeclinesalthoughthegrowthofenergyandcommoditypricessoftenedPPIdeclined25YoYinSepafterdropping3YoYinAugwhichhasbeenincontractionforayearPPIin317Oct2023coalminingoilgasminingferrousmetalrespectivelydropped15633and5inSepafterdecreasing162106and66inAugMeanwhilePPIinnon-ferrousmetalpickedup27afterrising14FromtheMoMperspectivePPIcontinuedtoincrease04inSepafterrising02inAugTheMoMgrowthofcrudeoilgasandpetroleumeasedto41and31from56and54Pricesofnon-metalmineralproductsrubberelectronicsmetalproductsandmedicinesdeclined080301and01MoMinSepThemovingtrendofPPIgrowthishighlyrelatedtotheinventorycycleastheshrinkageofPPIdeclineaswellastheexpansionofPMIindicateanalleviationofde-stockinginmostmanufacturingindustriesWeexpectamildreflationinCPIandPPIwithcontinuouscreditlooseninggradualdemandimprovementandbaseeffectaheadThePBOCshoweditsconcernaboutdeflationbyvowingtoboostthepricereboundWeexpectthecentralbanktomaintaineasingliquidityandcreditpolicywithadditionalcutsinRRRLPRsanddepositratesinnextthreequarterstofacilitatecreditexpansionFiscalpolicywillbemoreproactiveasthecentralgovernmenthasallowedprovincialgovernmentstoissuespecialbondstorepaythematuredhiddendebtsChinaseconomymaygraduallyimprovewithanalleviationofdeflationinthefutureWemaintaintheforecastforCPIgrowthat06in2023and2in2024ThePPIisprojectedtodrop27in2023beforerising13in2024ClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponPricedMSFKoreaDevelopmentBank3003yr6045SOFR70Aa2AAAA-KoreaDevelopmentBank7005005003510yr537553755625T557594Aa2AAAA-OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFHanaBankUSD-5yrT125Aa3A-NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere80creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB68bnAsforMonth-to-date368creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB384bnraisedrepresentinga49yoydecreaseEVERREChinaEvergrandeNEVfurtherdelayscircularsonshareissuetoNWTNtoonorbefore31Dec23GCLNEGCLNewEnergyannouncedtoearlyredeemalloutstandingdueJan24seniornoteswithUSD678mnoutstandingamounton31OctGEMDALGemdaleschairmanresignedduetopersonalreasonCEOaccededasnewchairmanGLPSPFitchdowngradedGLPPtetoBBfromBBB-andplacedstableoutlookasdelayeddeleveragingviaassetmonetizationleadstodeteriorationininterestcoverageanddebtstructure417Oct2023ICICIFitchaffirmedICICIBanksBBratingandplacedstableoutlookKAISAGKaisaGroupswinding-uppetitionhearingstrike-outapplicationadjournedto6Feb24LMRTSPLMIRTannouncedtheextensionofcSGD322mnloansbythreeyearsSHDOISShandongIronandSteelissuedRMB1bnextendable2N-yearMTNsat480couponratetorepaydebtsYUNAENYunnanProvincialEnergyInvestmentproposedtoofferRMB2bnone-yearbillsZJCOMGZhenjiangTransportationIndustryproposedtoofferRMB4bncorporatebondsandscheduledearlyredemptionofoutstandingRMB25mn2021MTNson31Oct23FixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523657623585239000801fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethatthe517Oct2023analystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6