研究报告全文：MN18Oct2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBYDE285HK3Q23beatandraiseOursectortoppickTargetPriceHK4530WeraisedourSOTP-basedTPtoHK4530implied182xPEfollowing3Q23PreviousTPHK4198earningsbeatandstrongordermomentumfromHuaweisMate60seriesBYDEUpDownside180preannounced9M23NPofRMB2836-3116mnup129-152YoYtrackingCurrentPriceHK38408686ofourconsensusFY23ENPestimatesMid-pointimplies3Q23NPgrowthof141YoYvs139YoYin1H23wellaboveexpectationBYDEChinaTechnologyattributedstrong3Q23tooverseasclientexpansionAndroidrecoveryrobustAlexNGnewbusinessesegNEVnewintelligentandincreasingutilizationWelifted85239000881FY23-25EEPSby17-25toreflectApplesharegainstrongerHuaweiordersalexngcmbicomhkandbetteroperatingefficiencyOverallweremainpositiveonHuaweismomentumsharegaininiPadOEMcomponentsandrapidgrowthinhouseholdHanqingLIlihanqingcmbicomhkenergystorageandNEVbizThestocknowtradesat200x159xFY2324EPEwhichisattractiveinourviewReiterateBUYassectortoppickStockDataMktCapHKmn8652319M23positiveprofitalert129-152YoYonstrengthacrossallAvg3mthstoHKmn2270segmentsBYDEannounced9M23positiveprofitalertstating129-15252wHighLowHK39951892YoYNPgrowthMid-pointimplied141NPgrowthin3Q23comparedtoTotalIssuedSharesmn22532SourceFactSet139YoYin1H23WebelievethestrongbeatwasdrivenbyiPadsharegainstrongordersfromHuaweiMate60ProcasingOEMandsolidShareholdingStructuredemandonNEVnewintelligentsegmentsInadditionwealsobelieve3Q23GoldenLinkWorldwideLtd658NPMimprovedsignificantlyto35vs27in1H23thankstostrongerGoldDragonflyLtd50SourceHKExgrowthofhigh-marginsegmentsApplebizNEVnewintelligentproductsandimprovingutilizationwithhigh-endAndroidordersSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelative2H23EoutlookHuaweicomebackiPadsharegainandmargin1-mth3256recoveryWebelieveHuaweisstrongordersandChinasAndroidrecovery3-mth515655willboostOEMcasingutilizationandoverallprofitabilityin2H23EIn6-mth617891additionHuaweishigh-endmodelsandiPadsharegainwillleadtobetterSourceFactSetproductmixandrevenuegrowthin4Q23E12-mthPricePerformanceFY24EJabilssynergyhouseholdenergystorageandrobustNEVexpansionLookingintoFY24EweexpecttheacquisitionofJabilsmobilitybusinesswillgeneratesynergieswithBYDEscomponentproductportfolioandsharegainacrossApplesproductcategoriesegiPhoneiPadWatchAlsoweexpectproductportfolioexpansioninhouseholdenergystorageandsmarthomeproductswilldrivedemandForNEVbackedbyparentcoordersandproductexpansiongrowthopportunitieswillmainlySourceFactSetcomefromsmartcockpitandautonomousdrivingtrendsOurFY23EEPSis16aboveconsensusliftTPtoHK4530ReiterateBUYforHuaweirecoveryApplesharegainandNEVnewintelligentupsideThestocknowtradesat200x159xFY2324EwhichisattractiveinourviewOurnewTPofHK4530implies182xFY24EPEEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn89057107186129576151936179241YoYgrowth218204209173180NetprofitRMBmn2309918576405515089166508YoYgrowth5751961183255307EPSReportedRMB103082180226295ConsensusEPSRMBnana155209274PEx322221200159122PBx3116272420Yield0309030608ROE10075147160179Netgearing0000000000SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk18Oct2023EarningsrevisionRaisedFY23-25EEPStoreflect3Q23beatandstrongermarginsWerevisedupFY23-25EEPSby19-25toreflectstrong3Q23preannouncementstrongerrevenuegrowthandimprovingutilizationWebelievestrongerHuaweiordersandApplesharegaininiPadOEMcomponentsaremajorgrowthdriversin2H232024EOurFY23-25EEPSis8-16aheadofconsensusduetoourmorepositiveviewonmarginreboundandoperatingefficiencyFigure1EarningsrevisionNewOldChangeRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue1295761519361792411233271412461569885176142GrossProfit1047712819160629780113201335471132203OperatingProfit328145386293269336224798218253312Netprofit405550896651347742735320166191250EPSRMB180226295154190236166191250GrossMargin81849079808502ppt04ppt05pptOperatingMargin25303522263103ppt04ppt05pptNetMargin31333728303403ppt03ppt03pptSourcesCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue129576151936179241130321159360183587-06-47-24GrossProfit1047712819160629958130761604752-2001OperatingProfit3281453862932789452362661760304Netprofit4055508966513465469661851708475EPSRMB1802262951552092741617979GrossMargin81849076828704ppt02ppt02pptOperatingMargin25303521283404ppt01ppt01pptNetMargin31333727293405ppt04ppt03pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3RevenuebreakdownRMBmnFY221H232H23EFY23EFY24EFY25EAssembly680543606241595776578564095880YoY2236400141012Componentmetalglassplastic1415549869160141461569317364YoY-10-25723001111Metal730431043104620854125502Plastic322111321672280328873175Glassceramic513024723916638858477017Newintelligent15207899911192201912422929074YoY22301350332020E-cigarette15404501612206228873464YoY54500300344020Householdenergystorage15005552400295550247535YoY977050Autointelligent9263613311449175822637436923YoY1468990905040Total1071865618073396129576151936179241YoY2028616211718SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE218Oct2023Figure4PLforecastRMBmnFY221H232H23EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue1071865618073396129576151936179241YoY204286156209173180Costofsales1008365177167328119099139117163179Grossprofit635044096068104771281916062GPM597883818490YoY53894509650224253SGA17709211028194825072957ofrev221222RD396924592789524857746811ofrev444444Operatingprofit61110292252328145386293OPM123334YoY-5723262964373839Netprofit185815162539405550896651NPM172735313337YoY-201391071182531SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE318Oct2023OverviewofJabilsMobilitysegmentFigure5JabilsMobilitysegmentrevenueinFY19-23EUSbn5027304525402035301525494910333748200515-3010-705-500-10FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23EJabilsMobilityRevenueYoYDMSCoreMarginSourceJabilsannouncementBloombergFigure6OverviewofJabilsmobilitybusinesslocationinChinaWuxiChengduMainManufacturingLocationOverviewApplicationsServiceOfferingsBusinessAreaOfferafullsuiteofsupplychainHardwarePCBassemblyFactoryareassolutionsfromdesignservicestoautomationmanualBoxbuild156485sqmseamlesscustomsclearanceandafter-jobdigitizationConfigure-to-orderEMSmarketservicesincludingnon-JabilSoftwareAutomatedmanufacturingFloorspacemadeproductsautomationsystems84263sqmDigitalhighwayEstablishedinDec2015MobilephoneProductsincludeseriesofsmall1800setsofmostadvancedCNCrelatedpartsmetalpartshousingmachinesJGP693235sqftOneofthemostreliablesuppliersofthefamousmobilephonebrandintheworldProvidesworld-classengineeringandConsumerlifestyleMetalmanufacturingservicestocustomersinMobility1765281sqftChinaandoverseasAworldleaderinconsumerhandheldConsumerEstheticpreciseandstructuralWuxielectronicselectronicsmechanicalplasticandmetalMobilitycomponentsPlastics120420sqftInnovativedecoratingtechnologiesandoptimizedmechanicalsolutionsOneofthemostreliablesuppliersofElectronicsProductionofmobilephonethefamousmobilephonebrandintherelatedpartsdigitalcameraStampingworldrelatedpartsfinepunchingdies356569sqftprecisioncavitydiesandmoldstandardpartsDiversifiedmoldmanufacturingConsumerFromstandardmoldtohighcapabilitieselectronicsprecisionmoldDelivercomprehensivedesignHealthcareImplementself-developedToolToolingmanufacturingsupplychainandPackagingSmartManufacturingSystemto12100sqftproductmanagementservicesforAutomotiveproductestablishuniqueSmartFactoryincustomersinabroadrangeofToolingindustryindustriesAsoneofJabilslargestsitesinChinaConsumerLayoutconduciveforstrongJGPChengduofferscapacityforfutureMobilesecuritysystemcontrolexpansionanddevelopmentOffers24-hourcustomersupportCapacityTheonlygovernment-certifiedChengdusiteforWorldwideTechServices7170000sqftexpansionCNCandAnodizingOfferscapacityforfutureexpansionanddevelopmentSourceCompanywebsitePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE418Oct2023ValuationMaintainBUYandraisedTPtoHK4530WemaintainBUYandderiveourTPbasedonSOTPvaluationtoreflectBYDEsbusinessdiversificationwithdifferentgrowthprofilesandvisibilityOurnewTPofHK4530isbasedonweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof182xFY24EPEWeassign15xPEtoitsassemblyEMSbusinessand15xPEforcomponentbusinessin-linewithTWHK-listedpeersgivenAndroidbusinessmarginrecoveryandApplebusinessexpansionWeassign20xfornewintelligentandNEVsegmentstoreflectitsgrowthpotentialandhigherearningsvisibilityFigure7BYDESOTPvaluationBusinesssegmentofFY24EProfitFY24EEPSRMBTargetPEAssembly1603715xComponents1904215xMasks00008xNewIntelligent3006820xAutointelligent3507920xOthers00010xTotalRMBImpliedPE226182xTPHK4530SourcesCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure8PeersvaluationMarketUpCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EBYDE285HKBUY110603840453182001592724147160Tongda698HKBuy12801001765573601012335AACTech2018HKHold21171382140224313907062746TKGroup2283HKBuy1471383112449-07-133170JuTeng3336HKNR181118NANA------Everwin300115CHNR17301051NANA290140211871132LensTech300433CHNR92771364NANA22016515146785Foxconn2354TTNR24695640NANA13010405055870Catcher2474TTNR386318350NANA12616208086043Average16713311117089SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure912MforwardPEbandFigure1012MforwardPBband60504550403540303025202015101005000Mar-14Mar-15Mar-16Mar-17Mar-19Mar-20Mar-22Mar-23Mar-18Mar-21Sep-15Sep-16Sep-17Sep-18Sep-19Sep-20Sep-21Sep-22Sep-141-yrForwardPEMean1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDMean1SDMean-1SDSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE518Oct2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue7312189057107186129576151936179241Costofgoodssold6349283028100836119099139117163179Grossprofit962960296350104771281916062Sellingexpense237275535657760896Adminexpense67310411235129117472061RDexpense291333083969524857746811Operatingprofit58061405611328145386293Otherincomeexpense48711041386127212721272Pre-taxprofit622124651939446057187473Incometax77915581405629822Minorityinterest000000Netprofit544123101858405550896651Adjustednetprofit544123101858405550896651BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets260692763040488376994691649591Cashequivalents346628256244208539112500Accountreceivables14391924010471133041708318765Inventories68911056717046155841919621599STbankdeposits000000Othercurrentassets132049986727672767276727Non-currentassets108251231415006172441976522769PPE96931118212941154041817721481Deferredincometax0201481481481481Othernon-currentassets1132931158313591107807Totalassets379764117556994566686865874638Currentliabilities148401622030143258383324833242Short-termborrowings000000Accountpayables81461172422002176972510825101Taxpayable57184363363363363Othercurrentliabilities663643127777777777777777Non-currentliabilities8649281216121612161216Deferredincome147150231231231231Othernon-currentliabilities313404395395395395Totalliabilities157041714831359270543446534458Sharecapital405240524052405240524052Otherreserves182201997521583255613014136127Totalshareholdersequity222722402725635296133419440179Minorityinterest000000Totalequityandliabilities379764117556994566686865874638PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE618Oct2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation622124651939446057187473Depreciationamortization176017171987231426973148Changeinworkingcapital4745222825685675194092Others27187124313536729Netcashfromoperations32091768637078778985800InvestingCapitalexpenditure279532063859466554706453Others18600000Netcashfrominvesting298132063859466554706453FinancingDividendpaid160232372203509665Others17304359939393Netcashfromfinancing1570275430295602758NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear165134662825625820853911Exchangedifference1610721352000Cashattheendoftheyear346628256258208539112500SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE718Oct2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8