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>> 五矿期货-金融期权日报-231010
上传日期:   2023/10/10 大小:   590KB
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评级:   -- 作者:   卢品先,常俊萍
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【行情回顾】
  金融期权上证50ETF低开后窄幅区间盘整震荡;上证300ETF低开后先降后缓慢震荡上行;创业板ETF低开后窄幅区间盘整;中证1000指数低开先降后升,后宽幅区间震荡。截至收盘,上证50ETF跌幅0.31%报收于2.575,上证300ETF跌幅0.27%报收于3.754,创业板ETF跌幅0.31%报收于1.947,中证1000指数跌幅0.31%报收于6059.97。
  【期权分析】
  隐含波动率:金融期权隐含波动率不同程度地下降。其中上证50ETF期权隐含波动率报收于15.06%(-3.99%),上证300ETF期权隐含波动率报收于14.65%(-4.29%),创业板ETF期权隐含波动率报收于18.05%(-5.56%),中证1000股指期权隐含波动率报收于15.04%(-3.85%)。
  成交额PCR:期权的成交额PCR是看跌期权成交金额与看涨期权成交金额的比值,代表投资者资金投向,是市场情绪更直接的体现。成交额PCR与标的行情往往表现为反方向,比值越大表明空头压力越大,比值越小表明多头力量越强。截止收盘,上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报收于0.92(+0.09),上证300ETF期权成交额PCR报收于1.12(+0.23),创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报收于1.05(+0.25),中证1000股指期权成交额PCR报收于0.79(+0.04)。
  持仓量PCR:期权的持仓量PCR,是从期权的卖方角度分析市场的参与程度。期权持仓量PCR为1.00时,一般认为是市场行情的多空分界线。截止收盘,上证50ETF期权持仓量PCR在较低位置宽幅盘整报收于0.66(-0.02),上证300ETF期权持仓量PCR延续上行趋势报收于0.74(+0.03),创业板ETF期权持仓量PCR自低点快速快速拉升后小幅下降报收于0.68(-0.02),中证1000股指期权持仓量PCR上升受阻回落后窄幅波动报收于0.75(-0.01)。
  最大未平仓所在的行权价:期权最大未平仓所在的行权价是站在卖方的角度分析市场行情所在的压力线和支撑线。截至收盘,从期权卖方行权价的角度看,上证50ETF的压力点行权价维持在2.65;上证300ETF的压力点行权价维持在3.9;创业板ETF的压力点行权价维持在2.00;中证1000指数的压力点行权价维持在6200,支撑点行权价维持在6000。
  【结论与策略建议】
  (1)上证50ETF期权
  方向上:上证50ETF前期超跌反弹遇阻回落后窄幅盘整震荡近一个月,市场偏中性;
  波动上:期权隐含波动率窄幅波动后自上轨道线快速下落跌破下轨道线;
  策略建议:构建10月份卖出看涨+看跌期权偏中性期权组合策略,获取时间价值收益,若市场行情快速大涨或大跌,则平仓离场,如上证50ETF期权,即S_510050P2310M02500@10,S_51005P2310M02550@10和S_510050C2310M02600@10,S_510050C2310M02650@10。
  (2)上证300ETF期权
  方向上:上证300ETF前期超跌反弹近一周震荡上行后遇阻回落,一个月以来持续弱势缓慢下行,跌破今年以来的最低点,市场整体表现为弱势偏中性的的市场行情形态;
  波动上:期权隐含波动率围绕下轨道线小幅震荡后加速上行突破上轨道线,后快速下降至下轨道线,波动剧烈;
  策略建议:构建10月份看涨+看跌偏中性的期权组合策略,获取时间价值收益,若市场行情快速大涨或大跌,则逐渐平仓离场,如上证300ETF期权,即S_510300P2310M03600@10,S_510300P2310M03700@10和S_510300C2310M03800@10,S_510300C2310M03900@10。
  (3)创业板ETF期权
  方向上:创业板ETF前期自低点弱势反弹后窄幅盘整,近一个月在空头压力下持续下行,回暖势头较弱;
  波动上:创业板ETF期权隐含波动率较低位置小幅盘整后突破上轨道线加速上行,后快速回落跌破下轨道线;
  策略建议:构建看涨+看跌期权偏中性的组合策略,获取时间价值收益,若市场行情快速上涨或下跌突破损益平衡点,则平仓离场,如CYBETF期权,S_159915P2310M01850@10,S_159915P2310M01900@10和S_159915C2310M01950@10,S_159915C2310M02000@10。
  (4)中证1000股指期权
  方向上:中证1000指数沿着空头趋势方向加速下跌近三周,跌破去年12月以来低点,弱势反弹回暖后宽幅盘整,近三周缓慢下行后宽幅震荡,市场行情整体偏弱势;
  波动上:中证1000股指期权隐含波动率大幅波动半个月后上行突破历史平均水平,后遇上轨道线压力回落跌破下轨道线。
  策略建议:构建熊市价差期权组合策略,获取方向性收益和时间价值收益,若市场行情快速上升突破损益平衡点,则平仓离场,如ZZ1000股指期权,B_MO2310-P-5900@10,S_MO2310-P-5800@10和S_MO2310-C-6200@10,B_MO2310-C-6300@10。
研究报告全文:金融期权日报期权研究2023年10月10日星期二行情回顾金融期权上证50ETF低开后窄幅区间盘整震荡上证300ETF低开后先降后缓慢震荡上行创业板ETF低开后窄幅区间盘整中证1000指数低开先降后升后宽幅区间震荡截至收盘上证50ETF跌幅031报收于2575上证300ETF跌幅卢品先027报收于3754创业板ETF跌幅031报收于1947中证1000指数跌幅031报收于605997投研经理期权分析0755-23375252隐含波动率金融期权隐含波动率不同程度地下降其中上证50ETF期权隐含波动率报收于1506-399上证300ETF期权隐含波动率报收于1465-429创业板ETF期权隐含波动率报收于1805-556中证1000股lupxwkqhcn指期权隐含波动率报收于1504-385从业资格号成交额PCR期权的成交额PCR是看跌期权成交金额与看涨期权成交金额的比值代表投资者资金投向是市场情绪F3047321更直接的体现成交额PCR与标的行情往往表现为反方向比值越大表明空头压力越大比值越小表明多头力量越强交易咨询号截止收盘上证50ETF期权成交额PCR报收于092009上证300ETF期权成交额PCR报收于112023创业板ETF期权成交额PCR报收于105025中证1000股指期权成交额PCR报收于079004Z0015541持仓量PCR期权的持仓量PCR是从期权的卖方角度分析市场的参与程度期权持仓量PCR为100时一般认为是市场行情的多空分界线截止收盘上证50ETF期权持仓量PCR在较低位置宽幅盘整报收于066-002上证300ETF常俊萍期权持仓量PCR延续上行趋势报收于074003创业板ETF期权持仓量PCR自低点快速快速拉升后小幅下降报收于068-002中证1000股指期权持仓量PCR上升受阻回落后窄幅波动报收于075-001期权研究员最大未平仓所在的行权价期权最大未平仓所在的行权价是站在卖方的角度分析市场行情所在的压力线和支撑线changjpwkqhcn截至收盘从期权卖方行权价的角度看上证50ETF的压力点行权价维持在265上证300ETF的压力点行权价维持在从业资格号39创业板ETF的压力点行权价维持在200中证1000指数的压力点行权价维持在6200支撑点行权价维持在6000F03117406结论与策略建议1上证50ETF期权方向上上证50ETF前期超跌反弹遇阻回落后窄幅盘整震荡近一个月市场偏中性波动上期权隐含波动率窄幅波动后自上轨道线快速下落跌破下轨道线策略建议构建10月份卖出看涨看跌期权偏中性期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如上证50ETF期权即S510050P2310M0250010S51005P2310M0255010和S510050C2310M0260010S510050C2310M02650102上证300ETF期权方向上上证300ETF前期超跌反弹近一周震荡上行后遇阻回落一个月以来持续弱势缓慢下行跌破今年以来的最低点市场整体表现为弱势偏中性的的市场行情形态波动上期权隐含波动率围绕下轨道线小幅震荡后加速上行突破上轨道线后快速下降至下轨道线波动剧烈策略建议构建10月份看涨看跌偏中性的期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如上证300ETF期权即S510300P2310M0360010S510300P2310M0370010和S510300C2310M0380010S510300C2310M03900103创业板ETF期权方向上创业板ETF前期自低点弱势反弹后窄幅盘整近一个月在空头压力下持续下行回暖势头较弱波动上创业板ETF期权隐含波动率较低位置小幅盘整后突破上轨道线加速上行后快速回落跌破下轨道线策略建议构建看涨看跌期权偏中性的组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速上涨或下跌突破损益平衡点则平仓离场如CYBETF期权S159915P2310M0185010S159915P2310M0190010和S159915C2310M0195010S159915C2310M02000104中证1000股指期权方向上中证1000指数沿着空头趋势方向加速下跌近三周跌破去年12月以来低点弱势反弹回暖后宽幅盘整近三周缓慢下行后宽幅震荡市场行情整体偏弱势波动上中证1000股指期权隐含波动率大幅波动半个月后上行突破历史平均水平后遇上轨道线压力回落跌破下轨道线策略建议构建熊市价差期权组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情快速上升突破损益平衡点则平仓离场如ZZ1000股指期权BMO2310-P-590010SMO2310-P-580010和SMO2310-C-620010BMO2310-C-630010235市场行情标的简称合约代码收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿SH50ETF510050SH25750-00080-031709471823SH300ETF510300SH37540-00100-027875213274SH500ETF510500SH57600-00320-055207641195CYBETF159915SZ19470-00060-031580111126SZ100ETF159901SZ26420000400157062185ZZ1000000852SH605997-1898-0311367560151374当月合成期权期权标的平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水SH50ETF2600002430043725806-00099-03800056SH300ETF3800003130067837635-00088-02300095SH500ETF5750007720058057692-00318-05500092CYBETF1950003010029519506-00076-03900036SZ100ETF26500035000400264500000200100030ZZ100061000048208840605980-1860-031-01651当月期权隐含波动率期权标的IMP-CIMP-PIMP-TMA20UPLOW剩余天数到期日SH50ETF153314671506172418631585162023-10-25SH300ETF148014471465174520431447162023-10-25SH500ETF143614601448173120061456162023-10-25CYBETF182917771805225326051901162023-10-25SZ100ETF168116281655189720781717162023-10-25ZZ1000152114821504177819261629112023-10-20当月期权量仓期权标的额-Call额-Put额-PCR变化仓-Call仓-Put仓-PCR变化SH50ETF2404922238092009843117554825066-002SH300ETF2212724715112023544718401814074003SH500ETF1027411822115018165632198121120-011CYBETF1111411659105025369022249731068-002SZ100ETF202221801080414109736388089018ZZ100016796133440790042996822372075-001数据来源wind五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1SH50ETF走势图280成交量万收盘价2000275175027015002651250257502601000255750250500245250240020230329202304032023040720230412202304172023042020230425202304282023050820230511202305162023051920230524202305292023060120230606202306092023061420230619202306262023062920230704202307072023071220230717202307202023072520230728202308022023080720230810202308152023081820230823202308282023083120230905202309082023091320230918202309212023092620231009图2SH300ETF走势图4203000成交量万收盘价27004102400400210018003901500375401200380900370600300360020230329202304032023040720230412202304172023042020230425202304282023050820230511202305162023051920230524202305292023060120230606202306092023061420230619202306262023062920230704202307072023071220230717202307202023072520230728202308022023080720230810202308152023081820230823202308282023083120230905202309082023091320230918202309212023092620231009图3CYBETF走势图2402000成交量万收盘价23015002202101000200500190180020230329202304032023040720230412202304172023042020230425202304282023050820230511202305162023051920230524202305292023060120230606202306092023061420230619202306262023062920230704202307072023071220230717202307202023072520230728202308022023080720230810202308152023081820230823202308282023083120230905202309082023091320230918202309212023092620231009图4中证1000走势图7200250成交量亿收盘价700020068006600150640010062005060005800020230329202304032023040720230412202304172023042020230425202304282023050820230511202305162023051920230524202305292023060120230606202306092023061420230619202306262023062920230704202307072023071220230717202307202023072520230728202308022023080720230810202308152023081820230823202308282023083120230905202309082023091320230918202309212023092620231009SH50ETF期权持仓分布SH50ETF期权持仓分布图SH50ETF期权持仓变化图200000600001800005000016000014000040000120000300001000002000080000600001000040000020000-100002302302352402452502552602652702752802852902950225285285225225230235240245250255260265270275280290295OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGECSH50ETF期权最大未平仓SH50ETF认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价2902852802752702652602552502452402023072520230815202304202023042520230428202305082023051120230516202305192023052420230529202306012023060620230609202306142023061920230626202306292023070420230707202307122023071720230720202307282023080220230807202308102023081820230823202308282023083120230905202309082023091320230918202309212023092620231009ETF期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓SH50ETF期权持仓量PCRSH50ETF期权隐含波动率280160CLOSEOIPCR262751402427022120202651001826025750160802551406025012102450402400202023032920230407202304172023042520230508202305162023052420230601202306092023061920230629202307072023071720230725202308022023081020230818202308282023090520230913202309212023100920230410202304192023042820230512202305232023060120230612202306212023070420230713202307242023080220230811202308222023083120230911202309202023100920230329IMPVMA20UPLOWSH300ETF期权持仓分布SH300ETF期权持仓分布图SH300ETF期权持仓变化图16000035000140000300001200002500010000020000800001500060000100004000050002000000-5000390390440370440310310320330340350360370380400410420430450460310320330340350360380390400410420430450460OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGECSH300ETF期权最大未平仓SH300ETF认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价434241403938372023051920230619202307202023081820230918202304202023042520230428202305082023051120230516202305242023052920230601202306062023060920230614202306262023062920230704202307072023071220230717202307252023072820230802202308072023081020230815202308232023082820230831202309052023090820230913202309212023092620231009ETF期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓SH300ETF期权持仓量PCRSH300ETF期权隐含波动率244214022CLOSEOIPCR411202010018400801639375400601438040123702010360002023032920230407202304172023042520230508202305162023052420230601202306092023061920230629202307072023071720230725202308022023081020230818202308282023090520230913202309212023100920230410202304192023042820230512202305232023060120230612202306212023070420230713202307242023080220230811202308222023083120230911202309202023100920230329IMPVMA20UPLOWCYBETF期权持仓分布CYBETF期权持仓分布图CYBETF期权持仓变化图12000018000160001000001400012000800001000060000800060004000040002000200000-20001601601751902052202351701701801851952002102152252300165170170230160160165175180185190195200205210215220225235OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGECCYBETF期权最大未平仓CYBETF认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价2402352302252202152102052001951902023062620230810202304202023042520230428202305082023051120230516202305192023052420230529202306012023060620230609202306142023061920230629202307042023070720230712202307172023072020230725202307282023080220230807202308152023081820230823202308282023083120230905202309082023091320230918202309212023092620231009ETF期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓CYBETF期权持仓量PCRCYBETF期权隐含波动率35240100CLOSE30OIPCR090230080250702200602100502004020003015020190010101800002023032920230407202304172023042520230508202305162023052420230601202306092023061920230629202307072023071720230725202308022023081020230818202308282023090520230913202309212023100920230410202304192023042820230512202305232023060120230612202306212023070420230713202307242023080220230811202308222023083120230911202309202023100920230329IMPVMA20UPLOWZZ1000股指期权持仓分布ZZ1000期权持仓分布图ZZ1000期权持仓变化图6000800500060040004003000200200001000-200510051005300550057005900610063006500670069007100730053005300550057005900610063006500670069007100730005100-400OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGECZZ1000股指期权最大未平仓ZZ1000认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价720070006800660064006200600058002023070720230926202304202023042520230428202305082023051120230516202305192023052420230529202306012023060620230609202306142023061920230626202306292023070420230712202307172023072020230725202307282023080220230807202308102023081520230818202308232023082820230831202309052023090820230913202309182023092120231009股指期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓ZZ1000股指期权持仓量PCRZZ1000股指期权隐含波动率24720015022CLOSE7000OIPCR1352068001201866001051664000901462000751260000601058000452023032920230407202304172023042520230508202305162023052420230601202306092023061920230629202307072023071720230725202308022023081020230818202308282023090520230913202309212023100920230410202304192023042820230512202305232023060120230612202306212023070420230713202307242023080220230811202308222023083120230911202309202023100920230329IMPVMA20UPLOW免责声明五矿期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构已具备有商品期货经纪金融期货经纪资产管理期货交易咨询等业务资格本刊所有信息均建立在可靠的资料来源基础上我们力求能为您提供精确的数据客观的分析和全面的观点但我们必须声明对所有信息可能导致的任何损失概不负责本报告并不提供量身定制的交易建议报告的撰写并未虑及读者的具体财务状况及目标五矿期货研究团队建议交易者应独立评估特定的交易和战略并鼓励交易者征求专业财务顾问的意见具体的交易或战略是否恰当取决于交易者自身的状况和目标文中所提及的任何观点都仅供参考不构成买卖建议版权声明本报告版权为五矿期货有限公司所有本刊所含文字数据和图表未经五矿期货有限公司书面许可任何人不得以电子机械影印录音或其它任何形式复制传播或存储于任何检索系统不经许可复制本刊任何内容皆属违反版权法行为可能将受到法律起诉并承担与之相关的所有损失赔偿和法律费用五矿期货分支机构深圳总部业务一部深圳市南山区滨海大道3165号五矿金融大厦13-16层电话400-888-5398电话0755-83252740业务二部业务三部电话0755-88917165电话0755-83752356业务四部业务五部电话010-68331868-183电话028-85053476深圳营业部北京分公司深圳市福田区福华三路1006号诺德大厦30D1北京市海淀区首体南路6号新世纪世行饭店写字楼1253室电话0755-83752310电话010-68332068上海分公司成都分公司上海市浦东新区向城路288号国华人寿金融大厦902903成都高新区天府大道北段1288号1幢3单元12层12041205电话021-58784529电话028-86131072青岛分公司北京营业部山东省青岛市东海西路35号太平洋中心1写字楼409北京市丰台区广安路9号院6号楼408409电话0532-85780820电话010-64185322广州分公司湛江营业部广东省广州市天河区珠江西路17号广晟国际大厦24楼2407广东省湛江市开发区乐山东路35号银隆广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