21日工业硅震荡偏强，主力2309收于13625元/吨，日内涨幅0.55%，持仓量减仓456手至65616手。百川硅参考价13732元/吨，较上个交易日上涨20元/吨。其中#553各地价格区间涨至12900-13750元/吨，#421价格区间涨至14500-15050元/吨。最低交割品#421价格12500元/吨，现货贴水1055元/吨。云南仓单增量助推市场流通和交投氛围继续回暖，叠加市场不断炒作预期向好，近期硅价向上动力较强。从基本面来看，西南供应扰动影响告一段落，需求端走出淡季后呈现一定反弹表现。供强需弱格局仍未转向，上涨势头多来自卖方坚持挺价，终端消化能力仍待观察。当前基本面对价格支撑力度不足，库存仍有一定增压风险，需谨慎看待后续上涨空间

研究报告全文：工业硅日报工业硅日报2023年8月22日一研究观点点评21日工业硅震荡偏强主力2309收于13625元吨日内涨幅055持仓量减仓456手至65616手百川硅参考价13732元吨较上个交易日上涨20元吨其中553各地价格区间涨至12900-13750元吨421价格区间涨至14500-15050元吨最低交割品421价格12500元吨现货贴水1055元吨云南仓单增量助推市场流通和交投氛围继续回暖叠加市场不断炒作预期向好近期硅价向上动力较强从基本面来看西南供应扰动影响告一段落需求端走出淡季后呈现一定反弹表现供强需弱格局仍未转向上涨势头多来自卖方坚持挺价终端消化能力仍待观察当前基本面对价格支撑力度不足库存仍有一定增压风险需谨慎看待后续上涨空间请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES1工业硅日报二日度数据监测硅20238212023818涨跌SI00GFE1355513455100期货结算价元吨SI01GFE136251353095不通氧553硅华东13300133000不通氧553硅黄埔港13200132000不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港13200132000元吨不通氧553硅昆明1310013000100不通氧553硅四川12900129000不通氧553硅上海13650136500通氧553硅华东136501360050通氧553现货价格通氧553硅黄埔港1370013600100元吨通氧553硅天津港135501350050通氧553硅昆明1375013550200421硅华东14500145000421硅有机硅用华东14900149000421硅黄埔港14600146000421现货价格元421硅天津港14600146000吨421硅昆明14800148000421硅有机硅用昆明15050150500421硅四川15050150500无锡杭州为基准交割区域天津贴水100元吨广州贴水150元吨昆明贴水500元吨乌鲁木齐贴水700元吨不通氧553硅华东13300133000不通氧553硅黄埔港13350133500不通氧553现货价格不通氧553硅天津港13300133000元吨不通氧553硅昆明1360013500100市场行情不通氧553硅四川13450134500421硅华东14500145000421硅有机硅用华东14900149000421硅黄埔港14750147500421现货价格元421硅天津港14700147000吨421硅昆明15300153000421硅有机硅用昆明15550155500421硅四川15600156000现货553与421价差160016000按广期所421升水2000元吨的价差设定当前最低交割品价格12500125000现货升贴水-1055-955-100下游DMC华东市场13600136000DMC东岳有机硅13600136000DMC合盛硅业13600136000有机硅元吨生胶13600136000107胶14100141000二甲基硅油15800158000复投料单晶用73000730000多晶硅元吨致密料单晶用71000710000菜花料单晶用069000-69000硅片元片单晶M6M10G12294314419294314419000000000电池片元瓦单晶M6M10G12081076075081076075000000000单晶perc单面166182210116123125116123125000000000光伏组件元瓦单晶perc双面166182210117123126117123126000000000本周上周涨跌黄埔港39000390000天津港36000360000工业硅吨社会昆明港40000340006000库存厂库1281001236004500DMC吨厂库56300549001400多晶硅吨厂库7530075400-100资料来源SMM百川盈孚iFindGFE光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES2工业硅日报三图表分析31工业硅及成本端价格图表1工业硅各牌号价格元吨图表2牌号价差单位元吨金属硅553昆明港金属硅553通氧昆明港金属硅421昆明港通氧553-不通氧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图表3地域价差单位元吨图表4用电价格元度553硅天津港-昆明港421硅天津港-昆明港用电价新疆用电价云南德宏用电价四川凉山10000078000066000054000042000030-200002-400001-600002020722021152021232023272023382023472023692022122022212022332022422022522022612022712020731202083120209292020115202012420213112021412202151420216152021714202181220219102022118202222320223242022426202253020226292022728202282620229272022112202212120235112023712202381020221172022216202231820224172022517202261620227162022731202281520228302022914202292920231122023127202321120232262023313202332820234122023427202351220235272023611202362620237112023726202381020211020202111182021121720221230202210142022102920221113202211282022121320221228图表5硅石价格元吨图表6精煤价格元吨硅石湖北硅石云南硅石江西硅煤宁夏硅煤新疆硅煤陕西硅煤贵州800400070035006003000500250040020003001500200100010050000202084202182202194202292202072202096202182202219202259202278202354202373202296202314202335202010920211162021323202152820211072021119202211420223212022526202273120221052022117202311220233192023524202362620237292021218202142520216302022216202242320226282023214202342120219112021101202212920223102022419202261820228172022926202312420232132023325202352420237232021822202221820223302022529202272820221152023414202361320238122020111120201214202112122022121020211110202111302022101620221125202212152021122020211021资料来源百川盈孚光大期货研究所请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分EVERBRIGHTFUTURES3工业硅日报32下游产成品价格图表7DMC价格元吨图表8有机硅产成品价格元吨DMC市场均价DMC合盛硅业浙江有机硅生胶市场均价有机硅107胶市场均价有机硅二甲基硅油市场均价7000070000600006000050000500004000040000300003000020000200001000010000002020722021482021562021632021712022472022552022622023292023392023462023542023612020722020992021122021442021752022152022472022782023182023532023832020730202082720209242021114202121120213112021729202182620219232022113202221020223102022630202272820228252022922202311220236292023727202072520208172020102202112520212172021312202142720215202021612202172820218202021912202110520221282022220202231520224302022523202261520227312022823202291520221082023131202322320233182023410202352620236182023711202010222020111920201217202110212021111820211216202210202022111720221215202010252020111720201210202110282021112020211213202210312022112320221216图表9多晶硅价格元吨图表10硅片价格美元片元片多晶硅复投料单晶用多晶硅致密料单晶用多晶硅菜花料单晶用硅片单晶M6市场参考价硅片多晶166mm175m欧洲硅片单晶166mm175m欧洲3500008093000007080725000060652000000541500000430310000020250000101000202192202216202231202246202275202311202326202341202357202385202181202196202235202263202279202291202315202345202374202192020211082021121202212420222112022319202242420225122022530202261720227232022810202282820229152022103202211820231192023224202331420234192023525202361220236302023718202181920219242021125202211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