华融融达期货-铁矿石周报：平控预期出现偏差，炼钢利润重估-230821

>> 华融融达期货-铁矿石周报：平控预期出现偏差，炼钢利润重估-230821

上传日期：	2023/8/21	大小：	2742KB
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评级：	--	作者：	林滋然
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研究报告全文：图表设置下载图片另存为PDF铁矿石周报2023-08-21分享周评现货概述联系人林滋然15011950020本周港口成交一般截至到8月19日普氏价格58品味铁矿报linzrhrrdqhcom9325美金吨较上周涨50美金吨62品味铁矿报1088美从业资格号F3058665金吨较上周涨535美金吨投资咨询号Z0016732市场分析上周到港发运库存均增加中国47港到港总量32832万吨环比增加13479万吨45港到港31809万吨环比增加13135万吨澳巴19港铁矿发运总量25790万吨环比增加2983万吨其中澳洲发运量17742万吨环比增加861万吨发往中国15513万吨环比增加2154万吨巴西发运8049万吨环比增加2125万吨45港库存1205099万吨环比增10508万吨247家钢厂铁水产量24562万吨环比增202万吨日均疏港量32672万吨环比增987万吨本周价格强势上涨主要由于市场炒作平控政策但钢厂铁水产量逼近前高预期与现实出现预期差盘面通过铁矿上涨修复炼钢利润估值宏观层面央行二季度货币政策报告中继续释放利好报告中信贷成本下降及调整优化房地产政策一定程度上使得市场心态转好基本面层面港口压港情况本周缓解进而导致到港数据大增但本周成材端周度数据及铁水数据同时不减反增铁水产量甚至逼近前高这与市场对平控政策的预期形成反差盘面通过拉涨铁矿修复盘面炼钢利润在钢厂没有实际性减产行为下钢价短期承压而近端铁矿压港缓解港口库存持续下降的情况也将缓解在修复完炼钢利润估值后成材端或进入主动减产周期铁矿上涨高度也将受到制约建议震荡对待操作建议震荡对待风险提示铁矿石现货价格现货价格指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌61p5PB粉元湿吨8568411573412256p5超特粉元湿吨7207101061810265p卡拉加斯粉元湿吨9539449849104铁精粉66p湿基不含--税唐山元湿吨普式价格指标名称2023-08-202023-08-14涨跌去年同期值同比增长率普式58p932588255851958普式62p108810345535997913普式65p1205115255251123572561p5PB粉日照港元湿吨56p5超特粉日照港元湿吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202317001300160012001500110014001300100012009001100800720100085670090060080070050060040050030001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2101-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2165p卡拉加斯粉日照港元湿吨铁精粉66p湿基不含税唐山元湿吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023190018001700160015001400130012001100953100090080070001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-21铁矿石62p中国北方CFR美元吨铁矿石58p中国北方CFR美元吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023240170220160200150140180130160120110932514010012010889080100708060506001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2101-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-21数据来源钢联wind铁矿石高中低品矿价差现货铁矿价差指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值同比增长率卡粉PB97103-6115-1565金布巴粉PB-48-41-7-35-3714PB超特粉13613151161724--PB超特粉201920202021202220234504203903603303002702402101801361501209001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-19卡粉PB2019202020212022202342039036033030027024021018015097120906001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-1金布巴粉PB201920202021202220230-20-48-40-60-80-100-120-140-160-180-20001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-19唐山精粉PB20192020202120222023数据来源钢联wind铁矿石港口库存铁矿石港口库存指标名称2023-08-202023-08-14涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌45港总计万吨1205099119459110508138882-18372141港总计万吨114969911464913208132632-176621铁矿石港口库存结构指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌I主力7715739325678593澳洲45港总计万吨5392755314787797652294-113019巴西45港总计万吨4418864397952091460561-18675贸易矿量45港万吨7480487436724376830233-82185总库存压港天数45港413652219天澳洲41港总计万吨5252755201785097633794-108519巴西41港总计万吨407086406795291425861-18775贸易矿量41港万吨709548709672-124787833-78285总库存压港天数41港413652219天澳洲31港总计万吨4890454811187927593024-103979巴西31港总计万吨395806395495311417861-22055贸易矿量31港万吨6812286798721356763833-82605总库存压港天数31港413651625天45港总计万吨41港总计万吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023165001550016000150001550014500150001400014500135001400013000135001250013000125001205099120001149699120001150011500110001100010500105001000001-0202-1003-2104-3006-1107-2008-2810-1311-2112-301-0202-1003-2104-3006-1107-2008-2810-1311-2112-3澳洲45港总计万吨巴西45港总计万吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023780057007600540074005100720048004418867000450068004200660039006400360062003300600030005800270056005392752400540021005200180001-0102-1003-1904-2405-3107-0508-1109-2011-0612-2301-0102-1003-1904-2405-3107-0508-1109-2011-0612-23数据来源钢联wind铁矿石港口库存贸易矿量45港万吨总库存压港天数45港天20192020202120222023201920202021202220239500120900011085001009080007480488075007070006065005041600040305500205000104500001-0102-1003-1904-2405-3107-0708-1209-2411-1112-201-0102-0703-1704-2105-2606-3008-0409-1110-2812-10澳洲41港总计万吨巴西41港总计万吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023740054007200510070004800680045004070866600420039006400360062003300600030005800270056002400540052527521005200180001-0102-1003-1904-2405-3107-0508-1109-2011-0612-2301-0102-1003-1904-2405-3107-0508-1109-2011-0612-23贸易矿量41港万吨总库存压港天数41港天2019202020212022202320192020202120222023120840011081001007800907500709548720080690070660060630050416000405700540030510020480010001-0102-1003-1904-2405-3107-0708-1209-2411-1112-201-0102-0703-1704-2105-2606-3008-0409-1110-2812-10数据来源钢联wind国产矿供给国产铁矿石生产情况指标名称2023-08-112023-07-28涨跌去年同期值同比增长率产能利用率全国126家67826857-0756481464266座铁精粉产量全国126家42794326-0474089465266座万吨日产能利用率全国186家64766537-0616516-061363座铁精粉产量全国186家50575104-0475088-061363座万吨日铁精粉产量全国186家363座万吨日产能利用率全国186家363座201920202021202220232019202020212022202372547053685250576476516650644948624760464558445643544241525001-0302-1103-2404-2606-0307-1008-1309-2711-1312-301-0302-1103-2404-2606-0307-1008-1309-2711-1312-3铁精粉产量全国126家266座万吨日产能利用率全国126家266座2019202020212022202320192020202120222023457067824442796843426641644062396038375836563554343352325001-0302-1003-2004-2306-0207-0508-1209-2411-0812-2501-0302-1003-2004-2306-0207-0508-1209-2411-0812-25数据来源钢联wind铁矿石发货量铁矿石发货量指标名称2023-08-112023-08-04涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌全球铁矿发货量万吨29571283291242281831388澳巴发货合计万吨25013201574856224082605巴发货合计万吨76875308237955962091澳发货合计万吨1732714849247816812515合计万吨20961152295732187872174力拓万吨4995334-3445323-333必和必拓万吨5319382814914975344淡水河谷万吨6264134212647751485FMG万吨4392193324593714678全球铁矿发货量万吨澳巴发货合计万吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202336003500270026002501334002500330024003200230031002957122003000210020002900190028001800270017002600160015002500140024001300230003-2604-2305-2106-1807-1608-1309-2410-2911-2601-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-20巴发货合计万吨澳发货合计万吨20192020202120222023201920202021202220232000850768719001732780018007501700700160065015006001400550500130045012004001100350100030090025080070001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-2001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-20四大矿山发货量合计万吨FMG万吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023439245020961220042021002000390190036018003301700160030015002701400130024012002101100180100090015012001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-2001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-20数据来源钢联wind铁矿石发货量必和必拓万吨力拓万吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023650750700600531955065050060049945055050040045035040030035025030020025015020010015001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-2001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-20淡水河谷万吨澳大利亚产铁矿19个港口发货量万吨20192020202120222023201920202021202220237502200700626210065020006005501900177425001800450170040016003501500300140025020013001501200100110001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-2001-0102-1203-2605-0706-1707-2108-2610-0711-1812-3巴西产铁矿19个港口发货量万吨20192020202120222023950900850804980075070065060055050045040035001-0102-1103-2405-0106-1107-1408-1409-2411-0412-13数据来源钢联wind铁矿石到港量铁矿石到港量指标名称2023-08-112023-08-04涨跌去年同期值中国45港万吨31809186741313521132中国26港万吨30928180571287120363中国北方万吨169669511745512156青岛港万吨285517551102351日照港万吨191314764373035连云港万吨1848588126203天津港万吨245924329195曹妃甸万吨4861196328983106京唐港万吨3031129817331511到港量中国45港万吨到港量中国26港万吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202331809309283200320030003000280028002600260024002400220022002000180020001600180014001600120001-0102-0303-0404-0205-0105-2606-1707-0908-0408-201-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0909-2311-0612-23到港量中国北方万吨天津港万吨20192020202120222023201920202021202220231696617003601600330150030014002702459130024012002101100180100015090012080090700606003001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-2001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-20曹妃甸万吨日照港万吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023486150039045036033040030035027024030019132102501802001501501209010060503001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-2001-0102-0703-1504-2105-2707-0208-0709-2011-0512-20青岛港万吨2019202020212022202340035028553002502001501005001-0101-1802-0402-2103-1003-2604-1204-2905-1506-0206-1807-0507-2208-0708-2709-1710-0810-2911-1912-1012-3数据来源钢联wind铁矿石基差基差指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌PB-05基差210318213889-35711546935563PB-09基差84818101389-16571551932963超特-05基差-7386-64837-9023-1078253397超特-09基差-19936-177337-22023-207325796卡粉-05基差169776181094-11318129478403卡粉-09基差4427668594-2431829978143超特-05基差超特-09基差2019202020212022202320192020202120222023150150100100505000-7386-50-50-100-100-150-19936-150-200-200-250-250-300-300-350-350-40001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2101-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-21PB-05基差PB-09基差2019202020212022202320192020202120222023800550700500450600400500350300400250300210318200150848182001001005000-50-100-10001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2101-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-21卡粉-05基差卡粉-09基差201920202021202220232019202020212022202350055045050040045040035035030030025025016977620020015015010044276100505000-50-50-10001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2101-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-21数据来源钢联wind铁矿跨期跨品种价差铁矿石跨期垮品种指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌5-9跨期价差-----9-1跨期价差91905058011卷矿比10比0945284746-02185163-064卷矿比0550925261-0169566-057螺矿比0549445102-01585659-071螺矿比10比09429445-0165328-104焦矿比05277329-01273733-096焦矿比0925542676-01223716-1165-9跨期价差9-1跨期价差201920202021202220232019202020212022202320018022016020014018012016010084514012080100608040602040020-2001-0201-2702-2103-1804-1305-1110-0811-0211-2712-2201-1602-0602-2703-2004-1105-0505-2606-1607-0707-28卷矿比05卷矿比10比0920192020202120222023201920202021202220239859589857587756576655550926555545284545401-0202-0803-1704-2406-0307-1008-1609-2211-0512-1201-0202-0803-1704-2406-0307-1008-1609-2211-0512-12螺矿比05螺矿比10比09201920202021202220232019202020212022202385895975857865757665554944655545542945443501-0202-0803-1704-2406-0307-1008-1609-2211-0512-1201-0202-0803-1704-2406-0307-1008-1609-2211-0512-12焦矿比05焦矿比09201920202021202220232019202020212022202357545751544851454842453942393636332773333325542727242421211801-0202-0803-1704-2406-0307-1008-1609-2211-0512-1201-0202-0803-1704-2406-0307-1008-1609-2211-0512-12数据来源钢联wind铁矿跨期跨品种价差2铁矿石跨期跨品种套利指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌涨跌幅同比涨跌卷矿比0150015261-026-495-059焦矿比0127472896-0149-515-104螺矿比0148195043-0224-444-0766-9跨期价差-----7-9跨期价差-----8-9跨期价差-----1-5跨期价差345221255682158-9跨期价差7-9跨期价差201920202021202220232019202020212022202318024016021014018012089510015080120609040603020300-200-40-30-60-6001-0202-0503-1104-1505-2206-2507-2910-0911-1212-1604-0804-2705-1906-0706-2609-1510-1110-3011-1812-0卷矿比011-5跨期价差2019202020212022202320192020202120222023951409120851008758076034565406205001550545-204-4035-601-72-133-204-266-47-118-199-2711-512-113-284-295-286-257-238-229-2110-1911-1712-14螺矿比01焦矿比012019202020212022202320192020202120222023985657854755174865454263955481936335274745327424351-72-133-204-266-47-118-199-2711-512-111-72-133-204-266-47-118-199-2711-512-11数据来源钢联wind成材利润成材利润指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌钢坯利润165511183228-17717305946-14044螺纹利润-174489-156772-17717215946-39044热轧利润551153228-47717-540545957螺纹钢期货05利润31913496-3053287-96螺纹钢期货10利润82251211-38852923-21005热卷期货05利润42814636-3553297984热卷期货10利润287253671-7985167311995螺纹利润螺纹05盘面利润20192020202120222023201920202021202220231200180010001600800140060012004001000800200-17448960031910400-200200-4000-600-20001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2101-0202-0903-1904-2706-0907-1708-2410-0811-1512-23热轧利润螺纹10盘面利润2019202020212022202320192020202120222023140027001200240010002100800180060015001200400900200551160082250300-2000-400-30001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2101-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1912-2热卷05盘面利润热卷10盘面利润201920202021202220232019202020212022202320002400220018002000160018001400160014001200120010001000800428180060060028725400400200200001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0907-1708-2410-0811-1512-2301-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1912-2钢坯利润201920202021202220231400120010008006004001655112000-200-40001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-19数据来源钢联wind成材利润未命名指标名称2023-08-182023-08-17涨跌涨跌幅去年同期值同比涨跌螺纹01合约盘面利296732955-3285-997294324润热卷01合约盘面利436746455-2785-630231344润螺纹01合约盘面利润201920202021202220231800160014001200100080060029674002000-200-40001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-19热卷01合约盘面利润20192020202120222023220020001800160014001200100080060043674002000-20001-0201-1902-0502-2203-1103-2804-1505-0505-2206-0806-2507-1207-2908-1509-0109-1810-1210-2911-1512-0212-19数据来源钢联wind钢厂铁水钢材产量铁水钢材生产数据指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值日均铁水产量247钢厂万24562243620222578吨开工率247钢厂8409838029779利用率247钢厂917991030768389螺纹周产量万吨263826567-18726518热轧周产量万吨3146631171295292冷轧周产量万吨81578228-0717581中厚板周产量万吨160861606701914313线材周产量万吨10963109280351393农历开工率247钢厂开工率247钢厂201920202021202220232019202020212022202393939090878409878409848481817878757572726969666663631-41-272-233-225-26-147-279-1010-2312-601-0102-0803-1704-2105-2606-3008-0409-1110-2512-09农历利用率247钢厂公历利用率247钢厂2019202020212022202320192020202120222023969694917994917992929090888886868484828280807878767674741-41-272-233-225-26-147-279-1010-2312-601-0102-0803-1704-2105-2606-3008-0409-1110-2512-09农历日均铁水产量247钢厂万吨日均铁水产量247钢厂万吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202325525525024562250245622452452402402352352302302252252202202152152102102052052002001951951-41-282-273-295-167-28-1910-511-2201-0102-1003-1904-2405-3107-0708-1209-2411-0812-24数据来源钢联wind钢厂铁水钢材产量螺纹周产量万吨20192020202120222023420400380360340320300280263826024022001-0101-1802-0402-2103-1003-2604-1204-2905-1506-0206-1807-0507-2208-0708-2609-1610-0710-2811-1812-0912-3热轧周产量万吨201920202021202220233453403353303253203146631531030530029529028528001-0101-1802-0402-2103-1003-2604-1204-2905-1506-0206-1807-0507-2208-0708-2609-1610-0710-2811-1812-0912-3冷轧周产量万吨201920202021202220238886848157828078767472706801-0101-1802-0402-2103-1003-2604-1204-2905-1506-0206-1807-0507-2208-0708-2609-1610-0710-2811-1812-0912-3中厚板周产量万吨201920202021202220231651608616015515014514013513012512011511010501-0101-1802-0402-2103-1003-2604-1204-2905-1506-0206-1807-0507-2208-0708-2609-1610-0710-2811-1812-0912-3线材周产量万吨201920202021202220231651601551501451401351301251201151096311010501-0101-1802-0402-2103-1003-2604-1204-2905-1506-0206-1807-0507-2208-0708-2609-1610-0710-2811-1812-0912-3数据来源钢联wind铁矿石需求相关双击编辑内容铁矿石需求相关指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌45港口疏港量万吨32672316859872782248541港口疏港量万吨318223093588727192463进口矿总日耗万吨-----64家样本钢厂国产矿日1011013-003955055耗万吨国内大中型钢厂库存可1515020-5用天数国内中小型钢厂库存可1515020-5用天数45港口疏港量万吨41港口疏港量万吨2019202020212022202320192020202120222023340330326723182233032032031031030030029029028028027027026026025025024024001-0102-0703-1804-2205-2807-0208-0709-1711-0412-1801-0102-0703-1804-2205-2807-0208-0709-1711-0412-18进口矿总日耗万吨64家样本钢厂国产矿日耗万吨20192020202120222023201920202021202220236512605714111015510509845740635530425320201-0402-1303-2204-2406-0107-0308-0909-2111-0412-2501-0102-1403-1804-2305-2607-0108-0209-1111-0112-17国内大中型钢厂铁矿可用天数国内中小型钢厂铁矿可用天数20192020202120222023201920202021202220234242393936363333303027272424212118151815151501-0102-1003-1304-1505-1906-2307-2909-0610-2312-0901-0102-1003-1304-1505-1906-2307-2909-0610-2312-09数据来源钢联wind运费铁矿石运费指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌去年同期值同比涨跌巴西图巴朗青岛BCI-2144420311441903924C3美元吨西澳青岛BCI-C5美79877350245766032元吨印度青岛日照EC美135136-01193-58元吨舟山江内港05-1万2152150275-6吨元吨北仑江内港3-4万吨1151150185-7元吨巴西图巴朗青岛BCI-C3美元吨西澳青岛BCI-C5美元吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202350244522204018351630142144412251079820815641025001-0202-0903-1904-2606-0307-1108-1809-2511-0212-1001-0202-0903-1904-2606-0307-1108-1809-2511-0212-10印度青岛日照EC美元吨舟山江内港05-1万吨元吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202339443642334030382736342432213018135281526122421592262001-0202-0903-1904-2606-0307-1108-1809-2511-0212-1001-0202-0903-1904-2606-0307-1108-1809-2511-0512-13数据来源钢联wind铁矿期现成交港口成交指标名称2023-08-202023-08-14涨跌幅去年同期值同比增长率主要港口合计万吨9168051379855713持仓指标名称2023-08-182023-08-11涨跌幅去年同期值同比增长率I01M688052654595511702709-209I05M128204134360-4581026852485I09M195110291060-32971277005279主要港口合计万吨贸易商日均合计万吨201920202021202220232019202020212022202333022030020027018024021016018014015012091612010087908060306004001-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-2101-0202-0903-1904-2706-0707-1508-2209-2911-1312-21铁矿石成交成交增加减少国泰君安13543-2469中信期货10151-1582广发期货91846747光大期货91295398东证期货8909-2292永安期货59631394华泰期货55142459宝城期货53902788渤海期货4613-1244国富期货4382-1103国元期货43681397南华期货3933-265五矿期货36262042瑞达期货3002171信达期货28961255银河期货28691140一德期货2738-181东吴期货1862-3160国贸期货181389兴证期货18127100000000000000000000369121518空头仓位空头增加减少国泰君安12768-481永安期货11801-667方正中期8609-577东证期货7806128一德期货7674-295中信期货7138-1724光大期货675773华泰期货6536-576银河期货5724-551徽商期货5114-577广发期货4594-65中粮期货4221-999中泰期货407493瑞达期货3785188安粮期货3749-454国贸期货3586-490五矿期货3060-584兴证期货302765海通期货3005-195南华期货2935-56900000000000000003691215多头仓位多头增加减少永安期货19652-2458国泰君安10314-404五矿期货10026-2930物产中大9267126中信期货8036789一德期货7497977方正中期7261-244华泰期货6631-60东证期货6624-115光大期货5882146东海期货5069294广发期货4203-459银河期货4139910紫金天风362494国贸期货3595-429浙商期货3408-559海证期货3199897安粮期货2961-735大地期货2711-176中泰期货25051860000000000000000510152025数据来源钢联wind免责声明本分析报告由华融融达期货股份有限公司提供仅作为所服务的特定企业与机构一般用途而准备未经许可任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版复制发布及分发本报告的全部或部分内容给其它任何人士如引用发布须注明出处华融融达期货股份有限公司且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用删节和修改本报告引用的信息和数据均来自于公开资料及其它合法渠道力求报告内容引用资料和数据的客观公正尽可能保证可靠准确和完整但并不保证报告所述信息的准确性和完整性本报告所提供的信息仅供参考不作为投资决策的依据客户应自主做出期货交易决策独立承担期货交易后果本报告由华融融达数据分析家httpsdthrrdqhcom动态研报生成器生成

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