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>> 五矿期货-金属期权日报-230412
上传日期:   2023/4/12 大小:   1194KB
格式:   pdf  共10页 来源:   五矿期货
评级:   -- 作者:   卢品先
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【基本面信息】
  铜:产业层面,昨日LME库存减少3150至62275吨,减量来自亚洲和欧洲仓库,注销仓单占比下滑至42.0%,Cash/3M贴水3美元/吨。国内方面,昨日上海地区现货升水下滑至10元/吨,期货月间价差较大造成基差报价下滑,下游买盘环比改善。
  铝:SMM现货A00铝报均价18380元/吨。A00铝锭升贴水平均价-30。铝期货仓单194896吨,较前一日减少1202吨。LME铝库存512725吨,减少4075吨。2023年4月10日,SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存100.6万吨。
  铁矿石:现货市场成交情况一般,主流品种价格较上个交易日上涨5-10元/吨,钢厂按需采购为主,最低仓单价格回升至931元/吨,现货表现表现较为坚挺。
  
研究报告全文:金属期权日报期权研究2023年4月12日星期三基本面信息铜产业层面昨日LME库存减少3150至62275吨减量来自亚洲和欧洲仓库注销仓单占比下滑至420Cash3M贴水3美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货升水下滑至10元吨期货月间价差较大造成基差报价下滑下游买盘环比改善铝SMM现货A00铝报均价18380元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-30铝期货仓单194896吨较前一日减少1202吨LME铝库存512725吨减少4075吨2023年4月10日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1006万吨卢品先投研经理铁矿石现货市场成交情况一般主流品种价格较上个交易日上涨5-10元吨钢厂按需采购为主0755-23375252最低仓单价格回升至931元吨现货表现表现较为坚挺lupxwkjyqhcom期权分析及策略建议从业资格号1铜期权F3047321沪铜CU2305多头趋势方向上高位震荡逐渐回落而趋势线方向仍向上涨幅047报收于68870交易咨询号期权隐含波动率下降164报收于2035持仓量PCR有所下降维持较高水平报收于205操作建议沪铜Z0015541CU2305维持两周多以来的高位矩形区间震荡有所下降回落期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR仍维持较高水平构建卖出看涨看跌偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓逐渐离场如CU2305SCU2305P68000SCU2305P67000和SCU2305C69000SCU2305C700002铝期权沪铝AL2305前两周止跌反弹回暖上升连续报收阳线突破上行而后维持一周多以来高位震荡逐渐回落跌幅024报收于18420期权隐含波动率持续下降123报收于1424持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于115操作建议沪铝AL2305维持一周多以来高位宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡有所下降的行情格局期权隐含波动率有所下降期权持仓量PCR小幅上涨仍维持较高水平构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如AL2305SAL2305P1850010SAL2305P1860010和SAL2305C1860010SAL2305C18700103锌期权沪锌ZN2305维持一周多以来低位宽幅矩形区间大幅波动上升受阻回落延续弱势偏空头跌幅034报收于21960期权隐含波动率下降043报收于1985持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于105操作建议沪锌ZN2305延续上方有压力的弱势偏空头趋势期权隐含波动率小幅波动沪锌期权持仓量PCR持续上升至120以上构建卖出宽跨式期权的偏空头组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如ZN2305SZN2305P21800SZN2305P22000和SZN2305C22200SZN2305C224004黄金期权黄金AU2306经过前期两周以来持续多头上涨突破一个月以来高点而后冲高回落高位大幅波动涨幅065报收于44586期权隐含波动率下降016报收于1818期权持仓量PCR小幅波动报收于108操作建议黄金AU2306维持多头趋势方向上高位大幅震荡而趋势线方向仍向上期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR窄幅盘整构建卖出DELTA为负值的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则平仓离场如AU2306SAU2306-P-43210SAU2306-P-44010和SAU2306-C-45610SAU2306-C-448105铁矿石期权铁矿石I2309前一周超跌反弹持续上涨偏多头上行上周以来上升受阻回落连续下跌维持前期的偏空头趋势而后区间震荡涨幅076报收于79200期权隐含波动率下降081报收于2813期权持仓量PCR大幅下降报收于162操作建议铁矿石I2509前一周逐渐回暖上升而后受阻回落形成短期弱势偏空下得区间震荡市场行情格局期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR快速下降构建卖出偏空头的看涨看跌期权期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速上涨则逐渐平仓离场如I2305SI2309-P-78010SI2309-P-79010和SI2309-C-80020SI2309-C-81010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CUCU230568870003200004771424487ALAL23051842000-4500-024189617507ZNZN23052196000-7500-034121113345AUAU230644586288065107647661II230979200600076659851888数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日CU23056900081000938006887214600021200132023-04-24AL230518400224001400018484-11800-0636400132023-04-24ZN230522000380002520022128-600-00316800132023-04-24AU23064488281140445204046-098442023-05-25I23097905150440079821002705501182023-08-07数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWCU2305175821792035-164250527432266AL2305138914561424-123153216501413ZN2305174821151985-043217824351920AU2306188217251818-016193422991570I2309254030652813-081334035993081数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化CU230517675341671930321823337310205-006AL230541128444151080083058235299115-018ZN230525008457611830301394714579105-008AU23061647511378069-0181705217974105-002I23094527649051108-0015653191331162-009数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1铜主力合约走势图7500025成交量万收盘价688800020700001565000106000055500002022-12-212023-02-062023-03-152022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11图2铝主力合约走势图2000040成交量万收盘价19500351848500190003018500251800020175001517000101650051600002022-10-242022-11-042023-02-272023-03-102022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-272022-11-012022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-03-022023-03-072023-03-152023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11图3锌主力合约走势图2600050成交量万收盘价25000402400030230002022000221250021000102000002023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-202022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-022023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11图4黄金主力合约走势图4448445030成交量万收盘价435420204053901037536002022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11图5铁矿石主力合约走势图1000140成交量万收盘价120900798501008008070060406002050002022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11铜期权持仓分布铜期权持仓分布图铜期权持仓变化图60001000500080060040004003000200200001000-2000-400600006000062000500005000052000540005600058000600006200064000660006800070000720007400076000780008000084000500005200054000560005800064000660006800070000720007400076000780008000084000OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC铜期权最大未平仓铜认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价80000750007000065000600005500050000450002022-10-192023-02-092023-02-272022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11铜期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓铜期权持仓量PCR铜期权隐含波动率280OIPCR7500040CLOSE352407000030200688800065000251602060000120150805500010040500002022-12-052022-12-292022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-132022-12-212023-01-092023-01-172023-02-012023-02-092023-02-172023-02-272023-03-072023-03-152023-03-232023-03-312023-04-112023-03-312022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-02-272023-03-092023-03-212022-09-29IMPVMA20UPLOW铝期权持仓分布铝期权持仓分布图铝期权持仓变化图900070080006007000500400600030050002004000100300002000-1001000-2000-3001590015900208001500015000153001560016200165001680017100174001770018000183001860018900192001950019800202002140022000150001530015600159001620016500168001710017400177001800018300186001890019200195001980020200208002140022000OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC铝期权最大未平仓铝认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价20000195001900018500180001750017000165002023-02-142023-02-272022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-172023-02-222023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11铝期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓铝期权持仓量PCR铝期权隐含波动率16020000OIPCR26019500240140CLOSE1900022012020018500180100180001601848500175001400801700012006010016500040160002022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-12-292023-01-092023-01-172023-02-012023-02-092023-02-172023-02-272023-03-072023-03-152023-03-232023-03-312023-04-112023-03-312022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-02-272023-03-092023-03-212022-09-29IMPVMA20UPLOW锌期权持仓分布锌期权持仓分布图锌期权持仓变化图3500800300060025004002000200150001000-200500-4000-60018400184001880018000180001840018800192001960020000204002080021200216002200022400228002320023600240002440024800255002650027500285001800019200196002000020400208002120021600220002240022800232002360024000244002480025500265002750028500OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC锌期权最大未平仓锌认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价2880026800248002280020800188002022-10-112022-09-292022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11锌期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓锌期权持仓量PCR锌期权隐含波动率18028000OIPCR500160CLOSE27000260004001402500012030024000100230002000802200010006021000040200002022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-12-292023-01-092023-01-172023-02-012023-02-092023-02-172023-02-272023-03-072023-03-152023-03-232023-03-312023-04-112023-03-312022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-02-272023-03-092023-03-212022-09-29IMPVMA20UPLOW黄金期权持仓分布黄金期权持仓分布图黄金期权持仓变化图500040045003004000350020030001002500200001500-1001000-2005000-300512512384448336336344352360368376384392400416432448464480496336344352360368376392400416432464480496512OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC黄金期权最大未平仓黄金认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价5004504003503002022-11-252022-12-052022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-042022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-302022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-172023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-202023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11黄金期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓黄金期权持仓量PCR黄金期权隐含波动率44484170450OIPCR30440150CLOSE430251304204102011040015090390380070103700503602022-09-292022-12-132022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-11-252022-12-052022-12-212022-12-292023-01-092023-01-172023-02-012023-02-092023-02-172023-02-272023-03-072023-03-152023-03-232023-03-312023-04-112023-03-312022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-02-272023-03-092023-03-212022-09-29IMPVMA20UPLOW铁矿石期权持仓分布铁矿石期权持仓分布图铁矿石期权持仓变化图14000200012000150010000100080005006000040002000-5000-10007607607001060460460490520550580610640670700730790820850880910940970100010604604905205505806106406707307607908208508809109409701000OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC铁矿石期权最大未平仓铁矿石认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价110010009008007006005002022-11-042023-01-172023-03-202022-09-292022-10-112022-10-142022-10-192022-10-242022-10-272022-11-012022-11-092022-11-142022-11-172022-11-222022-11-252022-11-302022-12-052022-12-082022-12-132022-12-162022-12-212022-12-262022-12-292023-01-042023-01-092023-01-122023-01-202023-02-012023-02-062023-02-092023-02-142023-02-172023-02-222023-02-272023-03-022023-03-072023-03-102023-03-152023-03-232023-03-282023-03-312023-04-062023-04-11铁矿石期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓铁矿石期权持仓量PCR铁矿石期权隐含波动率410950OIPCR50360CLOSE900798503108504026080021075030160700201106500606002022-11-252023-01-092022-09-292022-10-142022-10-242022-11-012022-11-092022-11-172022-12-052022-12-132022-12-212022-12-292023-01-172023-02-012023-02-092023-02-172023-02-272023-03-072023-03-152023-03-232023-03-312023-04-112023-03-312022-10-182022-10-282022-11-092022-11-212022-12-012022-12-132022-12-232023-01-052023-01-172023-02-032023-02-152023-02-272023-03-092023-03-212022-09-29IMPVMA20UPLOW免责声明五矿期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构已具备有商品期货经纪金融期货经纪资产管理期货交易咨询等业务资格本刊所有信息均建立在可靠的资料来源基础上我们力求能为您提供精确的数据客观的分析和全面的观点但我们必须声明对所有信息可能导致的任何损失概不负责本报告并不提供量身定制的交易建议报告的撰写并未虑及读者的具体财务状况及目标五矿期货研究团队建议交易者应独立评估特定的交易和战略并鼓励交易者征求专业财务顾问的意见具体的交易或战略是否恰当取决于交易者自身的状况和目标文中所提及的任何观点都仅供参考不构成买卖建议版权声明本报告版权为五矿期货有限公司所有本刊所含文字数据和图表未经五矿期货有限公司书面许可任何人不得以电子机械影印录音或其它任何形式复制传播或存储于任何检索系统不经许可复制本刊任何内容皆属违反版权法行为可能将受到法律起诉并承担与之相关的所有损失赔偿和法律费用五矿期货分支机构深圳总部业务一部深圳市南山区滨海大道3165号五矿金融大厦13-16层电话400-888-5398电话0755-83252740业务二部业务三部电话0755-88917165电话0755-83752356业务四部业务五部电话010-68331868-183电话028-85053476深圳营业部北京分公司深圳市福田区福华三路1006号诺德大厦30D1北京市海淀区首体南路6号新世纪世行饭店写字楼1253室电话0755-83752310电话010-68332068上海分公司成都分公司上海市浦东新区向城路288号国华人寿金融大厦902903成都高新区天府大道北段1288号1幢3单元12层12041205电话021-58784529电话028-86131072青岛分公司北京营业部山东省青岛市东海西路35号太平洋中心1写字楼409北京市丰台区广安路9号院6号楼408409电话0532-85780820电话010-64185322广州营业部湛江营业部广东省广州市天河区珠江西路17号广晟国际大厦24楼2407广东省湛江市开发区乐山东路35号银隆广场12层A1210室电话020-29117582电话0759-2856220天津营业部西安营业部天津市滨海高新区华苑产业区梅苑路5号金座广场2101-陕西省西安市新城区纬什街新科路1号楼一层2102电话029-87572985电话022-23778878宁波中山西路营业部重庆营业部浙江省宁波市海曙区布政巷16号12楼1205室重庆市江北区江北城西大街25号11-1电话0574-87330527电话023-67078086郑州营业部南通营业部郑州市未来路69号未来大厦16层1612号江苏省南通市青年东路81号南通大饭店B楼财富中心2003室电话0371-65619030电话0513-81026105杭州民心路营业部台州爱华路营业部浙江省杭州市江干区万银大厦1408室浙江省台州市椒江区爱华新台州大厦8-A电话0571-81969926电话0576-89811511济南营业部昆明营业部山东省济南市历下区山大路201号天业科技商务大厦401云南省昆明市盘龙区北京路612号银海国际公寓D座3201室427室电话0871-63338532电话0531-83192255大连营业部唐山营业部辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路大连国际金融中心A座大连期河北省唐山市路北区军鑫里凤城国贸1楼21层2104号货大厦2001号电话0315-5936395电话0411-84800452武汉营业部湖北省武汉市江岸区三阳路8号天悦星辰A栋26楼2602室电话0755-23375007
 
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