研究报告全文：甲醇产业链数据周报行情主线仍在煤炭戴一帆从业资格证号F3046357投资咨询证号Z001542805合约大幅下跌夜盘5-9转结构内地跌幅不及港口维持平稳MTO利润继续上调周度产业链价格总览甲醇静态估值继续维持在极低水平期货合约今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌价差今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌01合约24782517-392639-1611-5价差64163263805合约24142516-1022613-1995-9价差756-4928-2109合约24072460-532585-1789-1价差-71-57-14-54-17国内市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌南线21702175-52300-130鲁南2400240002600-200北线21602235-7523325-1725河北23352385-502565-230关中23052270352365-60山西22652305-402475-210河南23102370-602530-220华南25752590-152660-85鲁北23802445-652595-215太仓24452535-902685-240国际市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌CFR中国295305-1034925-5425CFR印度2995302-253115-12CFR东南亚351535675-5253695-18FOB鹿特丹3053215-16534925-4425CFR日韩3495350-05369-195FOB美湾美分加仑748475-107510575-3175下游价格今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌乙烯美金9409400960-20MEG40404110-704272-232丙烯美金92591015940-15EO7200720007000200丁二烯美金1100110001200-100醋酸29253050-1254272-1347PE83008300083000甲醛10501070-201210-160PP7600760007900-300二甲醚38003745553850-5001PVCNANANANANAMTBE750072003007250250持仓成交甲醇持仓量单边计算甲醇成交量1605001401204001003008060200402010000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇纸货成交量3530252015105002202120222023区域价格区域价格汇总太仓价格3000450040003500250030002500200020001500100015002022-11-182022-12-182023-01-182023-02-182023-03-18太仓北线关中山西河南河北鲁北广东2020202120222023北线价格鲁北价格45004500400040003500350030003000250025002000200015001500100010000320202021202220232020202120222023月差基差6505年区间6505年区间5505504505年均值5年均值4503502201基差2201-22052503502301基差2301-230515025050150-507173183092910291128122850-150-250-5091101103111301230-350-15040010005年区间5年区间8005年均值3005年均值6002205基差2002205-22092305基差2305-2309400100200011131313314300-1001111211231130229330429-200-2005年区间5年区间805505年均值5年均值402109基差2109-220135002209基差515312209-2301630730829-40150-80-120-5031331430530629729828-16004-250-200成本总述煤炭再度回归平静工艺本周上周成本环比动力煤煤炭港口坑口价格继续小幅回落山东煤制利润575107524925-50内蒙煤制利润68588522215-20西南天然气制利润-60-502500-10外盘天然气回归至正常区间低位震天然气河北焦炉气制利润-654-324654-624荡甲醇各工艺利润汇总4002000-200-400-600-800-1000河北焦炉气利润内蒙古煤制山东煤制利润山西煤制利润西南天然气制利润05开工率甲醇全国开工率西北甲醇开工率8090857580707565706560605555201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇非一体化开工率2023甲醇日产检修预测7525702452465235602355225502221521062020202120222023202311202321202331202341202351外盘价格外盘结构中国CFR42060037050040032030027020022010002022-12-132022-12-202022-12-272023-01-032023-01-102023-01-172023-01-242023-01-312023-02-072023-02-142023-02-212023-02-282023-03-072023-03-142023-03-212023-03-282023-04-04鹿特丹FOB美湾FOB东南亚CFR日韩CFR台湾CFR印度CFR中国CFR20192020202120222023东南亚CFR美湾FOB美分加仑60018016050014040012010030080602004010020072019202020212022202320192020202120222023外盘成本美国甲醇现金流利润USD欧洲甲醇现金流利润EUR5005000400-500300-1000200-1500-2000100-25000-300020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023NGAUSDMMBtuICETTFEURMWH73506300250520041503100250102017201820192020202120222023201720182019202020212022202308MTO开工率MTO开工率华东MTO开工率95100909085808070756070506560405530502020182019202020212022202320202021202220232023年MTO日耗加总14中原乙烯计划425南京一期鲁西近12期即将重启联泓甲醇检修但MTO不10停内地几套CTO4-5月有检修计划8不过对供需影响不大642020231120232120233120234120235120236109沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总传统下游开工率甲醇传统下游加权开工率MTBE开工率55656050555045整体综合开工率开始有一些下滑454040总体表现比较中性353530253020201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸开工率二甲醚开工率DMF开工率105309080952570852060751550654010553045520201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醛开工率氯化物开工率甲缩醛开工率40902535802030702515206015105010554003000102018201920202021202220232020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸醋酸价格江苏醋酸成本醋酸利润100003400700032006000800030005000280060002600400024004000300022002000200020001800100001600020192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸库存结构醋酸库存醋酸出口量252516000014000020201200001515100000101080000560000540000002000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月山东华东华北西北华中其他20192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸乙酯开工率醋酸乙烯开工率808070706050604030502040100300112019202020212022202320192020202120222023甲醛甲醛价格甲醛成本2200210020001900180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700华南华北山东201820192020202120222023甲醛利润甲醛月产量45050000035040000025030000015020000050100000-500-1502021-05-312021-06-302021-07-312021-08-312021-10-312021-11-302022-01-312022-02-282022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312023-02-282023-03-312021-12-312022-03-312021-09-30012201820192020202120222023甲醛月产量二甲醚河南二甲醚价格河南二甲醚成本65006500600060005500550050005000450045004000400035003500300030002500250020002000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023河南二甲醚利润LPGDME与DME开工率相关性8001724600162240015202001401318-2001216-4001114-60010120910201911202011202111202211013201820192020202120222023LPGDMEDME开工率MTBEMTBE价格MTBE成本1000085009000800075007000650060005500500045004000300035002000250020192020202120222023201820192020202120222023MTBE利润山东下游库存250012000020001100001500100010000050090000080000-50070000-1000-1500600000142018201920202021202220232020202120222023比价MAZC比价PP-3MA7060300050200040301000200201820192020202120222023-1000PEMA比价55-2000504540353020182019202020212022202325PPMA比价MAUR比价201820192020202120222023452018401635141230102508201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023015南华期货股份有限公司地址浙江省杭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