研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldPharmaceuticalsBiotechnologyLifeCompanyResearchmRNAvaccineapproved23March2023BUYCSPCPHARMACEUTICALGROUP01093HKUnchangedMarketData22March2023CSPCPharmaceuticalreported2022revenueofRmb3094bn11YoYandnetprofitofRmb609bnClosingpriceHK8359YoYItscorenetprofitreachedRmb611bn13YoYinlinewithourexpectationCSPCsblendedHSCEI6640grossmargindecreased39pptsYoYto719in2022RDexpensesreachedRmb40bn16YoYwith52-weekhighLowHK1036686theRDexpense-to-revenueratioof13in2022Itssellingexpense-to-revenueratiodecreased41pptsMarketCapHKm99642YoYto334in2022WemaintainourEPSforecastRmb055in23E8YoYRmb062in24E12Sharesoutstandingm11933YoYandforecastRmb066in25E7YoYWeraiseourtargetpricefromHK116toHK118WithExchangeRateRmb-HK08841upsidewemaintainBUYratingPricePerformanceChartSteadygrowthoffinisheddrugsectorSalesofitsfinisheddrugsreachedRmb245bn8YoYin2022vs11YoYin2021accountingforc80ofitstotalrevenueIntermsofrevenuebytherapeuticfields20salesofnervoussystemdiseaseoncologyanti-infectivecardiovasculardiseaseproductsgrew7-104204YoYrespectivelyreachingRmb81bnRmb74bnRmb35bnandRmb29bnaccountingfor033301412oftotalfinisheddrugs-10ApprovalofmRNAvaccineforCOVID-19In2022CSPCreceivedtheNMPAsapprovalforDuoenda-20mitoxantroneliposomeandCOPIKTRAduvelisibcapsulesPI3KInadditionCSPChasreceivedthe-30NMPAsapprovalfortheemergencyuseofSYS6006COVID-19mRNAvaccineinMarch222023-40becomingthefirstapprovedmRNAvaccineproductinChinathathasbeengrantedforemergencyuseThecompanyhasthemRNAvaccineannualcapacityof1500mdosesInadditionthecompany22-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-0223-03submittedtheNDAtotheNMPAforsevenproductsin2022includingJMT103RANKLMingfuleAISCSPCHSCEIHIpaclitaxelnanoparticlesirinotecanliposomedesvenlafaxinesustainedreleasetabletPD-1andamphotericinBliposomeSourceBloombergBDachievementsInFebruary2023thecompanylicensedoutitsSYS6002sNectin-4ADCoverseasAnalystrightstoCorbuswiththeupfrontpaymentofUS75mmilestonepaymentofuptoUS685mandroyaltiesInadditionCSPClicensedoutitsClaudin182ADCexcludingGreaterChinarightstoElevationZhouWenyuanOncologyinJuly2022withtheupfrontpaymentofUS27mmilestonepaymentofuptoUS1168mandA0230518110003double-digitroyaltiesIntermsofthelicense-inagreementCSPClicensedinHBM9161batoclimabzhouwyswsresearchcomGreaterChinarightsfromHBMwiththemyastheniagravisMGexpectedtoreceivetheapprovalin2Q24EWiththeinternalRDandBDprojectsthecompanyexpectstolaunchatotalof57newproductsin23E-28EinChinacoveringsmallmoleculelargemoleculevaccineetcStrongperformanceofcaffeineAPIbusinessTherevenueofAPIbusinessofvitaminCantibioticsandcaffeinegrew18YoY15YoYand44YoYrespectivelytoRmb25bnRmb19bnandRmb20bnin2022Inadditiontheoperatingprofitofantibioticsandcaffeinegrew33YoYand81YoYwhiletheoperatingprofitofvitaminCAPIdecreased40YoYin2022withitsoperatingprofitmargindown170pptsto18in2022DuetotherisingASPandsalesvolumeofcaffeineAPIitsoperatingprofitmarginincreased60pptsto29in2022MaintainBUYWemaintainourEPSforecastRmb055in23E8YoYRmb062in24E12YoYandforecastRmb066in25E7YoYWeraiseourtargetpricefromHK116toHK118With41upsidewemaintainBUYratingRisksLower-than-expectedproductsalesdelayofkeypipelineproductsFinancialsummaryandvaluation202120222023E2024E2025ERevenueRmbm2786730937337993666239170GrowthYoY11731102925847684NetprofitRmbm56056091659073537870GrowthYoY8638678191157704EPSRmb047051055062066ROE23202168200719141769PEx15671438133111931114PBx327277237203177NoteEPSiscalculatedasthenetprofitattributabletoshareholdersdividedbytotalsharecapitalJanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearch投资要点石药集团2022年收入同比增长11达到3094亿元归属于股东的净利润同比增长9至609亿元公司核心净利润同比增长13至611亿元符合我们的预期2022年公司综合毛利率同比下降39个百分点至719此外去年公司研发费用同比增长16达到40亿元研发费用率为132022年公司销售费用率下降41个百分点至334我们维持2022年的每股盈利预测为055元同比增长8维持2023年的预测为062元同比增长12新增2025年预测为066元同比增长7我们将目标价从116港元上调至118港元目标价对应41的上涨空间维持买入评级成药板块销售保持稳定2022年公司成药板块销售额同比增长8去年同期增速为11达到245亿元约占公司总收入的80就治疗领域而言神经系统疾病抗肿瘤抗感染以及心血管疾病产品的销售收入分别同比增长7-4204分别达到81亿元74亿元35亿元29亿元占成药板块的销售比例分别为33301412新冠mRNA疫苗获批上市2022年公司获得NMPA关于多恩达米托蒽醌脂质体和克必妥度维利塞胶囊PI3K的上市批准此外公司于2023年3月22日获得NMPA关于SYS6006新冠mRNA疫苗的上市批准纳入紧急使用该产品成为中国首个获得紧急授权使用的mRNA疫苗产品公司拥有mRNA疫苗年产能15亿剂此外去年公司向NMPA递交了七个产品的新药上市申请包括JMT103RANKL铭复乐急性缺血性脑卒中溶栓紫杉醇纳米粒伊立替康脂质体去甲文拉法辛缓释片PD-1和两性霉素B脂质体BD项目持续推进2023年2月公司向Corbus授出SYS6002Nectin-4ADC的海外权益此次合作石药将获得750万美元的首付款最高685亿美金里程碑付款以及销售提成此外公司于2022年7月向ElevationOncology授出Claudin182ADC大中华区以外的权益此次合作公司将获得2700万美元的首付款最高1168亿美金里程碑付款以及双位数销售提成产品引进方面公司从和铂医药引进HBM9161巴托利单抗大中华区权益该产品的重症肌无力MG适应症有望于2024年二季度获批上市通过内部研发和外部BD项目公司有望于2023至2028年在国内上市57款新产品涵盖小分子大分子和疫苗等产品咖啡因原料药业务表现强劲2022年维生素C抗生素和咖啡因原料药业务的收入分别同比增长181544达到25亿元19亿元和20亿元此外去年抗生素和咖啡因原料药的经营利润分别同比增长33和81维生素C原料药的经营利润同比下降40该业务经营利润率同比下降170个百分点至18由于咖啡因原料药价格和销量提升去年咖啡因原料药的经营利润率同比增长60个百分点至29维持买入评级我们维持2022年的每股盈利预测为055元同比增长8维持2023年的预测为062元同比增长12新增2025年预测为066元同比增长7我们将目标价从116港元上调至118港元目标价对应41的上涨空间维持买入评级风险提示产品销售低于预期核心管线产品开发进度不及预期Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchCompanyfinancialsConsolidatedIncomeStatementRmbm202120222023E2024E2025ERevenue2786730937337993666239170CostofSales-6732-8680-9700-10650-11653GrossProfit2113522256240992601227517OtherIncome411604338367392SellingGeneralAdminExpenses-11453-11510-12675-13418-14297EBITDA7521846791301009210729EBIT67957574819491659810FinanceCosts-8-25-5-5-5Profitbeforetax68477582818991599804Incometaxexpense-1159-1350-1463-1637-1752Minorityinterests-83-141-135-170-182Profitfortheyear56056091659073537870SourceCompanydataSWSResearchConsolidatedCashFlowStatementRmbm202120222023E2024E2025EProfitbeforetaxation68477582818991599804PlusDeprandamortisation726893936927919Financecost825555Lossesfrominvestments00000Changeinworkingcapital-1388781-58-9710Others-1556-1654-1319-1492-1608CFfromoperatingactivities46377627775385039131CAPEX-1197-1025-1025-1025-1025OtherCFfrominvestingactivities5600000CFfrominvestingactivities-637-1025-1025-1025-1025Equityfinancing00000Netchangeinliabilities00000Dividendandinterestpaid-1691-2097-1318-1471-1574OtherCFfromfinancingactivities-5060000CFfromfinancingactivities-2197-2097-1318-1471-1574Netcashflow18034505541060076532FCFF37766873658473337961FCFE37696848657873287956SourceCompanydataSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchConsolidatedBalanceSheetRmbm202120222023E2024E2025ECurrentAssets2033723957302913720144574Bankbalancesandcash928410298157082171628247Tradeandotherreceivables33093938430246674986Inventories24802555285531353430Othercurrentassets52637166742576847911Long-terminvestment22722835283528352835PPE852995829782998210182Intangibleandotherassets36045395513548824638TotalAssets3474241770480435490162230CurrentLiabilities7226895898231063011480Borrowings0153153153153Tradeandotherpayables61626864767084219214Othercurrentliabilities10641941200020552113Long-termliabilities6871170117011701170TotalLiabilities791310128109931179912650MinorityInterests8421444158017491931ShareholderEquity2598730198354704135247648ShareCapital1089910899108991089910899Reserves1508719298245703045236749TotalEquity2682831642370494310149579TotalLiabilitiesandequity3474241770480435490162230SourceCompanydataSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers3JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20downsideSELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers4