研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldInternetSoftwareServicesCompanyResearch4Q22earningsbeatfocusonretailing12March2023BUYJDCOMINCJDUSUnchangedMarketData10March2023JDreported4Q22revenueofRmb2954bn71YoYincludingservicerevenueofRmb578bnClosingpriceUS4047403YoYNon-GAAPnetprofitattributabletoordinaryshareholdersstoodatRmb77bn116IXIC1113889YoYexceedingmarketexpectationsFY2022revenuegrewtoRmb105tnwithservicerevenueofRmb1812bn333YoYNon-GAAPnetprofitreachedRmb282bn64YoY52-weekhighLowUS68203317MarketCapUSbn632TheRmb10bnsubsidiescampaigngreatlypromotedconsumptionIn4Q22JDRetailachievedSharesoutstandingbn312revenueofRmb2589bn362YoYandoperatingprofitofRmb786bn47YoYindicatinganoperatingmarginof5209pptsfrom3Q22SpecificallyrevenuefromhomeappliancesgrewExchangeRateRmb-US69776YoYandthatofdailynecessitiesrose35YoYOn6MarchthecompanylaunchedalargepromotionalcampaignRmb10bnsubsidiestoaccelerateacomprehensivelayoutinbothhigher-PricePerformanceCharttierandlower-tiercitiesofferingRmb1bnworthofsubsidiesduringthefirstmonthforbrandedand1816white-labeledgoodsJDachievedeconomiesofscalethroughtheextensivesupplychaintoachievea1412win-winsituationwithbrandownersWeestimatealimitedimpactfromtheaggressivepromotion108onitsprofitabilityTheearlystageoftheRmb10bnsubsidieshasalreadypulledbacktheold0604customersandattractednewcustomersOmni-channelcityretailcontinuestopromotebrand020ownersandofflinebusinessescooperationwithO2Obusinessrevenueexpanding29YoYandJDhourlyshoppingbusinesssizegrowingbymorethan80YoYJDOIXICIntegratedsupplychainsandeffectiveexpensecontrolJDimprovedmerchantsoperatingefficiencySourcewindbyreducingmerchantsoperatingcostsoptimizingstreamallocationandplatformrulesandimprovingplatformsecologybyenhancingsupplychaincapabilitiesInFY2022thenumberofnewmerchantsonboardgrew34YoYmaintaininga20-plusgrowthforeightconsecutivequartersInAnalyst4Q22JDachievedgrossmarginof140059pptYoYandafulfillmentgrossmarginof84ZhaoLingyi081pptYoYThemarketingexpenseratioandmanagementexpenseratiowere406-079pptA0230518100003YoYand123-012pptYoYrespectivelyThefulfillmentexpenseratiodecreased021ppttozhaoly2swsresearchcom571andtheRDexpenseratioremainedflattishat148-001pptYoYFocusedonusersqualityandanexternalintegratedsupplychainBytheendofthefourthquarterContactJDsuserbaseremainedstableanddailyactiveusersDAUmaintainedasoliddouble-digitgrowthYoYInadditionthenumberofJDPLUSmembersmaintainedrobustgrowthreaching34mJDCaoDunxinLogisticsrevenueinthefourthquarterwasRmb43bn41YoYThenumberofexternalintegrated862123297818supplychaincustomerswasnearly80000andtheaveragerevenueofasinglecustomerreachedCaodxswsresearchcomRmb365000JDLogisticscontinuestodeeplycooperatewithcustomersinthefieldsoffast-movingconsumergoodsFMCGhomeappliances3CautomotivefreshfoodandotherindustriesThecustomerstickinessofintegratedsupplychaincontinuestoincreaseJDservesmorethan20000merchantsontheDouyine-commerceplatformextendingthescopeofservicesfromexpressdeliverytosupplychainandbecomestheofficiallogisticspartnerofKuaishoue-commerceintheSpringFestivalpromotionsMaintainBUYJDcontinuestooptimizethestructureofmerchantsdiversifyproductcategoryandprovidesubsidiesrhythmicallyandhierarchicallyWebelievetheseeffortswillhelpitattractusersintheshorttermandisbeneficialforoptimizingplatformecologyinthelongrunthroughactivatingPOPmerchantsWeloweredouradjustednetprofitforecastsfromRmb311bntoRmb309bnin23EfromRmb365bntoRmb361bnin24Eandintroduce25EforecastofRmb427bnWebelievethatinthelongtermJDwillbenefitfromplatformecologicaloptimizationandcategoryexpansionWemaintainourBUYratingRisksSlower-than-expectedprogressofnewbusinessesslower-than-expectedgrowthofretailsalesvolumeintensifiedcompetitionFinancialsummaryandvaluationFY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRmbm9515921046236112387712616081435255GrowthYoY2769974123138NetprofitRmbm1720628219309363605542723GrowthYoY2264096165185EPSRmb108178195227269ROE4367697275PEx2616141210PBx43423834119NoteEPSreferstoNon-GAAPdilutedearningsperADSJanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearch利润增速超预期强化零售本质京东22Q4营收2954亿元人民币同比增长71其中服务收入为578亿元同比增长403Non-GAAP归属于普通股股东的净利润为77亿元同比增长116超市场预期22年全年收入为105万亿元全年服务收入为1812亿元同比增长333Non-GAAP归属于普通股股东净利润为282亿元同比增长64上线百亿补贴活动促消费以用户为核心回归零售本质22Q4京东零售实现收入2589亿元同比增长362实现经营利润7862亿元同比增长47经营利润率为52较22Q3提升09pct其中电子家电品类收入增长053日用百货类收入同比增长2333月6日公司上线史上最大优惠力度活动百亿补贴实现一二线城市下沉市场全面布局计划第一个月整体投入10亿元品牌白牌商品均包括在内京东充分通过供应链释放规模效应让利实现与品牌共建共赢对利润影响较为可控百亿补贴上线初期已拉动老客户回流和新客户增长全渠道同城零售持续推进品牌商和线下商家合作O2O业务规模同比增长29而京东小时购业务规模增长超过80推动供应链中台落地以增强运营效率费用管控力持续提升京东通过降低商家经营成本优化流量分配和平台规则提升商家经营效率通过提升供应链能力改善平台生态22全年新入驻商家数同比增长34已连续八个季度增速超2022Q4公司实现毛利率140同比提升059pct实现履约毛利率84同比提升081pct营销费用率与管理费用率分别为406和123同比下降079pct和012pct履约费用率下降021pct至571研发费用率为148同比下降001pct关注用户质量增长外部一体化供应链提升客户粘性截止四季度末京东用户规模保持稳定DAU保持同比双位数增长京东PLUS会员数量保持高速增长至3400万京东物流四季度收入为430亿元同比增长41外部一体化供应链客户数量近8万家单客户平均收入达365万元京东物流持续与快消品家电3C汽车生鲜等行业众多客户深度合作一体化供应链客户粘性持续增强公司服务超2万家抖音电商平台商家服务范围从快递延伸至供应链并成为快手电商春节不打烊官方物流合作伙伴维持买入我们认为公司持续优化商家结构及商品品类多样性并有节奏分层次的投入补贴短期看能为公司创造增量用户中长期看促活POP商家有利于优化平台生态考虑到电商零售行业短期竞争加剧我们下调23-24调整后归母净利润为309亿元361亿元前值311365亿元新增25年调整后归母净利润预测为427亿元我们认为长期公司将受益于平台生态优化和品类扩展维持买入评级风险提示新业务发展不及预期零售交易额不及预期行业竞争加剧Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchCompanyfinancialsConsolidatedIncomeStatementRmbm202120222023E2024E2025ERevenue9515921046236112387712616081435255CostofSales-822525-899163-982905-1094639-1244190GrossProfit129067147073140972166969191066OtherIncome-590-1555925393400Fullfillmentexpenses-59055-63011-57614-65293-75768SGAexpenses-125693-128729-118904-140156-157947adjEBITDA1871033601371704352251754adjEBIT1247824953228492968240778FinanceCosts-1213-2106-2458-2493-2400Profitbeforetax-258213866199952439730709Incometaxexpense-1887-4176-3999-4879-6142Minorityinterests-924-69763145139mezzanineclassifiednon-controllinginterestsshareholders168544Netincomelossattributabletoordinaryshareholders-356110379159281936924424adjNetincomeattributabletoordinaryshareholders1720628219309363605542723SourceSYWGResearchConsultingCompanyConsolidatedCashFlowStatementmillionRMB202120222023E2024E2025EProfitbeforetaxation-258213866199952439730709PlusDeprandamortisation62328648143211383910976Financecost12132106245824932400Lossesfrominvestments-1220000Changesinassetsandliabilities1894821129-41021439717561Others1861112070165117211807CFfromoperatingactivities4230157819343235684763454CAPEX50005000500050005000OtherCFfrominvestingactivities-79248-59026-5797-7000-7000CFfrominvestingactivities-74248-54026-797-2000-2000Equityfinancing00000Netchangeinliabilities-21240000Dividendandinterestpaid00000OtherCFfromfinancingactivities216271180000CFfromfinancingactivities195031180000Netcashflow-139428463335265484761454SourceSYWGResearchConsultingCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchConsolidatedBalanceSheetmillionRMB202120222023E2024E2025ECurrentAssets299672351074384657453202532780Bankbalancesandcash7076778861112387167234228688Tradeandotherreceivables1190020576221032481228227Inventories75601779498520994895107860Othercurrentassets141404173688164958166262168007Long-terminvestment71654102010918499284993849PPE3294455080539584192532576Intangibleandotherassets9223787086860488524184615TotalAssets496507595250616512673218743820CurrentLiabilities221636266561263719291815327501Borrowings436812146121461214612146Tradeandotherpayables172158200246192504215700246486Othercurrentliabilities4511054169590696396968869Long-termliabilities2808754566545665456654566TotalLiabilities249723321127318285346381382067MinorityInterests3666160167602306037560514Convertibleandredeemablenon-controllinginterest1212590595599603ShareholderEquity208912213366237402265864300636ShareCapital00000Reserves15861586158615861586Equityattributable207325211780235816264277299050TotalLiabilitiesandequity496507595250616512673218743820SourceSYWGResearchConsultingCompanyKeyFinancialRatios202120222023E2024E2025ERatiospershareRMBadjEarningspershare108178195227269Dilutedearningspershare108178195227269OperatingCFpershare13318310817950Dividendpershare0000000000Netassetspershare658675747837236KeyOperatingRatiosROIC907606557670845ROE434668686716754Grossprofitmargin13561406125413231331EBITDAMargin197321331345361EBITMargin131239203235284GrowthrateofRevenueYoY275999574212261376GrowthrateofProfitYoY225640196316551849Debt-to-assetratio50545405517251545145Turnoverrateofnetassets4228840309393544044441760Turnoverrateoftotalassets2071419166185491956420257Effectivetaxrate73073012200020002000ValuationRatiosXPE260158145124105PB43423834119EVSale0908070623EVEBITDA438251219174647SourceSYWGResearchConsultingCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers3JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20downsideSELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers4