研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldConsumerDiscretionaryCompanyResearchSolidperformance8February2023BUYYumChina09987HKYUMCUSMaintainMarketData7February2023YumChinareported4Q22revenueofUS21bn-9YoYandadjustedoperatingprofitofUS40mClosingpriceHK4706152YoYinlinewithourexpectationWemaintain2023EEPSforecastofUS1872024EHSCEI7232forecastofUS236andintroduce2025EforecastofUS261WeraisetargetpricefromHK468toHK565andwith201upsidepotentialwemaintainBuyrating52-weekhighLowHK500027889MarketCapHKm196911ResilientperformanceIn2022deliverycontributed39ofsalesup4pptsYoYincluding38ofSharesoutstandingm421KFCssalesand43ofPizzaHutssalesTogetherwithtake-awayoff-premisebusinesscontributed70ofKFCssalesand52ofPizzaHutssalesDuringtheChineseNewYearholidaythecompanysExchangeRateUS-HK84same-storesalesincreasedmid-singledigitYoYyetremainedbelowthe2019levelPricePerformanceChartSteadystoreexpansionThecompanyhadanetincreaseof538storesduring4Q22and1159stores10duringfullyear2022Itexpectstoopenc1100to1300netnewstoresin20230SharerepurchasesanddividendsThecompanyrepurchasedc12msharesofitscommonstockfor-10US52mduring4Q22atanaveragepriceofUS4413pershareAsofDecember312022-20cUS12bnremainedavailableforfuturesharerepurchasesunderthecurrentauthorizationAcash-30dividendofUS013persharewasalsodeclaredupfromthepreviousUS012-40-50MaintainBuyWecontinuetolikethecompanysinnovationabilityflexibleoperationmodeofdiversifiedstoretypesandtakeawaybusinessaswellasanindustry-leadingsupplychain09987HKHSCEIHImanagementanddigitalsystemWeraisetargetpricefromHK468toHK565andwith201upsidepotentialwemaintainBuyratingSourceBloombergRisksSlower-than-expectedstoreopeningstheresurgenceofCovid-19outbreaksslower-than-expecteddevelopmentofnewbrandsnegativenewsandfoodsafetyincidentsFinancialsummaryandvaluationAnalyst202120222023E2024E2025EJiaMengdiRevenueUSm98539570107361195213078GrowthYoY19-312119A0230520010002AdjustednetprofitUSm5254427869941097jiamdswsresearchcomGrowthYoY-15-16782610EPSUS125105187236261ZhaoLingyiROE7691111A0230518100003PEx4857322623NoteNetincomeiscalculatedasnetlossprofitfortheperiodadjustedbyaddingbackfairvaluechangesoffinancialliabilitiesatfairzhaoly2swsresearchcomvaluethroughprofitorlosslistingexpensesequity-settledshare-basedpaymentexpensesinterestonredeemablecapitalcontributionincomefromoutputvalue-addedtaxexemptionanduncreditableinputvalue-addedtaxSWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorld百胜中国4Q22实现收入21亿美元同比下降9经调整经营利润为4000万美元同比增长152符合我们的预期我们维持23年每股盈利预测187美元维持24年预测236美元引入25年预测261美元目标价由468港币上调至565港币对应201的上升空间维持买入评级具备韧性的表现2022年外卖业务贡献了百胜中国39的销售额同比增长4其中外卖业务贡献肯德基收入的38和必胜客收入的43外卖加外带的店外业务贡献了肯德基销售额的70和必胜客的52春节期间公司的同店销售额同比增长中单位数但是仍低于2019年的水平门店稳步扩张公司四季度净新增538家门店全年净新增1159家门店2023年公司预计净新增约1100至1300家新店股票回购及股息公司四季度以5200万美元回购了约120万股普通股每股均价4413美元截至12月31日公司有约12亿美元的回购授权可用于未来股票回购四季度同时宣派每股现金股息013美元高于上一季度的012美元维持买入评级我们持续看好公司的创新能力多种店型以及外卖业务打造的灵活的运营模式以及领先的供应链管理和数字化系统目标价由468港币上调至565港币对应201的上升空间维持买入评级风险提示门店扩张速度不及预期疫情反复新品牌孵化低于预期负面新闻及食品安全事件JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchCompanyfinancialsConsolidatedincomestatementUSm202120222023E2024E2025ETotalrevenues98539570107361195213078Companyrestaurantexpenses773478198367925210181Generalandadministrativeexpenses564581570595629Franchiseexpenses645252831Expensesfortransactionswithfranchiseesandunconsolidatedaffiliates649642665669686Otheroperatingcostsandexpenses6580252525Closuresandimpairmentexpensesnet3450333127Totalcostsandexpensesnet8467917796841060011579OperatingProfit1386629105213521499Interestincomenet6057575757IncomeBeforeIncomeTaxes1392626110914091556Incometaxprovision-369-157-277-352-389NetIncomeloss-includingnoncontrollinginterests102347083210571167NetIncomeloss-YumChinaHoldingsInc9904427869941097BasicEPS125105187236261SourceCompanydataSWSResearchConsolidatedcashflowstatementUSm20212022E2023E2024E2025ENetincomeincludingnoncontrollinginterests102347083210571167Depreciationandamortization516593656723763Amortizationofoperatingleaseright-of-useassets0503557614648Closuresandimpairmentexpenses3450333127Changesinaccountsreceivable-5-29-12-12-11Changesininventories-1634-18-46-47Changesinnon-currentoperatingleaseliabilities-461-480-54422652496Othernet-620000NetCashProvidedbyOperatingActivities1131907163948685305Capitalspending-689-999-904-986-920Purchasesofshort-terminvestments-6114-20-1-121NetCashUsedinInvestingActivities-855-1000-904-987-1041Cashdividendspaidoncommonstock-2030000Dividendspaidtononcontrollinginterests-570000NetCashProvidedbyUsedinFinancingActivities-31366-19-2924-2924NetIncreaseinCashandCashEquivalents-22-287159571340CashandCashEquivalentsBeginningofYear11581136110818242781CashandCashEquivalentsEndofYear11361108182427814121SourceCompanydataSWSResearchConsolidatedbalancesheetUSm20212022E2023E2024E2025ECashandcashequivalents11361108182427814121Short-terminvestments28602860286028602860Accountsreceivablenet6796107120131Inventoriesnet432398416462509TotalCurrentAssets47164639539864187809Propertyplantandequipmentnet22512325257428372837Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchOperatingleaseright-of-useassets26122960327636103610Goodwill21422142214221422142TotalAssets1322313568148911650917900Accountspayableandothercurrentliabilities23322113226125012752Incometaxespayable5151515151TotalCurrentLiabilities23862168231625552806Non-currentoperatingleaseliabilities22862590286731603160Otherliabilities592413480509481TotalLiabilities53015192568462456468CommonStock44444TreasuryStock-803-803-803-803-803Additionalpaid-incapital46954695469546954695Retainedearnings28923334412051136211TotalEquityYUMChinaHoldingInc705674988284927710375TotalEquity7908837692071026411432TotalLiabilitiesRedeemableNoncontrollingInterestandEquity1322313568148911650917900SourceCompanydataSWSResearchPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2JanuaryOctober122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogenerateadownsideof10-20SELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers3