研究报告全文：SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorldNewenergyCompanyResearch13Mar2023ProfitsdownbutstabilizinggoingforwardOutperformUnchangedXinyiEnergy03868HKMarketData10Mar2023XinyiEnergyreportedFY22revenueofHK232bn081YoYandprofitattributabletoshareholdersClosingpriceHK237wasHK097bn-2117YoYlowerthanourexpectationsCommittedtothepromiseofsuper-highHSCEI6646proportionofdividendsthecompanyplanstopaydividendofHK551maround4AugofHK0074per52-weekhighLowHK467198shareandthefull-yeardividendreachHK111bn-114YoYbutdividenddistributionstillaccountsthMarketCapHKm17634for100ofthedistributableincomewithadividendyieldof63basedonstockpriceon10MarchSharesoutstandingm7440InstalledcapacityfailedtomeetexpectationsIn2022thecompanypurchased520MWPVpowerExchangeRateRmb-HK114plantswhichfailedtoreachinstallationtargetof1GWmainlyduetotheseriousepidemicin1H22poorlogisticsandhighPVmodulepriceswhichaffectedcompanysinstallationspeedBytheendof2022PricePerformanceChartthecompanyhasacumulativecapacityofthesolarpowerstationsof3014MW209YoY40ProfitdeclineduetotaxcutsandsubsidypoliciesexpiringFrom2021thecentralgovernmentno20longersubsidizenewly-filedcentralizedindustrialandcommercialdistributedphotovoltaicprojectsand0implementgridparityInadditionXinyisearlyprojectsbefore2019nolongerenjoythepreferentialtax-20periodofthepolicyofThreeexemptionsandThreehalvingresultinginanincreaseincompanysincome-40taxrateIn2022XinyisincometaxexpensesamountedtoHK0298bnwiththeeffectiveincometaxrateof234482pptsYoYWebelievethatthecompanyscurrentincometaxrateiscloseto25-60XinyiEnergyHSCEIandtheimpactoffuturesubsidyreductiononprofitswillbereducedConsideringthatPVpowerhaspowergenerationpriorityandguaranteedconsumptionasthemarketizationofgreenpowercontinuesSourceWINDtodeepenwethinkcompanysincomefromparityprojectswillincreasedrivingthecompanysprofitabilitytoreboundAnalystAdheringtothedirectionoflargeparityprojectsandactivelyexploringdistributedprojectsIn2023WangLuXinyiplanstoacquirelarge-scaleparityprojectsof700-1000MWfromitsparentcompanyXinyiSolarA0230516080007Energyandindependentthirdpartycompaniesamongwhich300MWinHainanhasbeenacquiredinwangluswsresearchcomFebruaryThecompanyacquireddistributedPVprojectof447MWin2022LastyearnewlyinstalleddistributedPVcapacityreached511GWinChinaaccountingfor58ofthetotalinstalledPVcapacityChenChuyaoSinceXinyihasrichexperienceinPVprojectoperationweexpectdistributedPVwillbecomecompanysA0230521110001seconddevelopmentcurvechencyswsresearchcomSubsidypaidbacksmoothlyandadequatecashflowguaranteesprojectdevelopmentThecompanyAssociatehas19projectsof1724MWthatincludedinthesubsidylistofrenewableenergyprojectsAsof31DecZhuHe2022thecompanysreceivablesofelectricitypriceadjustmentreachedHK3127bnadecreaseofA0230122060007nearlyHK2bnfromHK5020bnin1H22indicatingthatthecompanyreceivedasignificantamountofzhuheswsresearchcomsubsidyin2H22Asof31Dec2022thecompanyscashinhandamountedtoHK1791bnConsideringthatthereducingimpactofepidemicanddecreasingpriceofPVmodulesin2023theabundantcashContactflowwillhelpXinyitoexpandinstalledcapacitysmoothlyWangLuMaintainOutperformConsideringtheweakeningofelectricitypriceadjustmentincomeinthefuturewangluswsresearchcomwerevisedownournetprofitforecastfromHK1343bntoHK1115bnin23EfromHK1555bntoHK1255bnin24EandforecastnetprofitofHK1332bnin25EwithEPSforecastsofHK015in23EHK017in24EandHK017in25EWearestilloptimisticaboutstabledividendreturnsduetotheincreaseininstalledcapacityWeexpectthecompanytosticktoitsstrategyofdistributing100ofdistributableincomeandexpectXinyisDPSofHK0173in23Eanddividendratereach73correspondingtothelatestsharepriceMaintainOutperformratingRisksExpectationofinterestriseTheprojectdevelopmentspeedmaybenotasfastasexpectedFinancialsummaryandvaluationFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueHKm22972315249227492981GrowthYoY33370817621031847NetprofitHKm1232971111512551332GrowthYoY3365-211714821254611EPSHKm017013015017017ROE982827916924874PEx137178158143137PBx1315141312NoteEPSiscalculatedasthenetprofitattributabletoshareholdersdividedbytotalsharecapital本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给华宸未来使用1SWSResearchCoLtd99EastNanjingRoadShanghai862123297818wwwswsresearchcomBringingChinatotheWorld投资要点信义能源披露2022年全年业绩公司营业收入2315亿港元同比增长081公司权益人应占溢利971亿港元同比减少2117低于我们此前的预期公司承诺超高比例派息计划在8月4日或前后每股派发74港仙预计将派发股息551亿港元全年派发股息1113亿港元同比下降114但股息分配仍占可分配收入的100以3月10日股价计算公司2022年股息率达63公司全年装机未达预期2022年全年信义能源共收购520MW光伏电站未达到1GW装机目标主要系2022年上半年全国多地疫情严重物流不畅叠加组价价格处于高位影响公司装机速度截至2022年底公司持有的太阳能电站累计核准容量达3014MW同比增长209减免税以及补贴政策到期导致利润下滑2021年起所有新备案的集中式工商业分布式光伏项目中央财政不再补贴实行平价上网此外公司2019年之前的早期项目已不再享受三免三减半政策的税收优惠期导致公司真实税率进一步提升2022年公司所得税开支达298亿港元实际所得税率达2344同比2021年增加82个百分点我们认为公司目前所得税率已接近25未来补贴退坡对利润影响将减小考虑到光伏绿电具备优先发电及保障消纳的特性随着绿电市场化水平持续深入公司平价项目收益有望增加带动公司盈利水平回升坚定大型平价项目发展方向并积极探索分布式项目公司在2023年计划向母公司信义光能及独立第三方收购700-1000MW大型平价光伏项目其中海南300MW已于二月完成收购同时公司在2022年收购447MW分布式光伏项目2022年中国分布式光伏新装机量达511GW占比光伏装机量的58公司具有丰富光伏项目运营经验分布式光伏有望成为公司第二发展曲线补贴回款顺利充沛现金流保障项目开发能力公司共有19个项目纳入可再生能源项目补贴列表总核准容量达1724MW截至2022年12月31日公司电价调整应收款项3127亿港元较年中的5020亿港元减少近20亿港元表明2022年下半年公司收回大量补贴回款截至2022年12月31日公司在手现金达1791亿港元考虑到2023年全国疫情影响减弱光伏组件价格有所下降公司充沛的现金流将有助于公司实现装机容量的顺利扩张维持增持评级基于补贴红利减弱长期将降低公司电价调整收入我们下调预测公司2023-2024年归母净利润至11151255亿港元下调前分别为13431555亿港元新增2025年盈利预测至1332亿港元EPS分别为015017和017港元股我们仍然看好公司因装机规模带来的稳定高股息回报我们预计公司将坚持分派100可分派收入的策略2023年每股股息达173港仙股息率对应当前股价可达73维持增持评级本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给华宸未来使用2风险提示海外加息预期新增装机速度低于预期OctoberJanuary122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchCompanyResearchCompanyfinancialsConsolidatedincomestatementHKDm202120222023E2024E2025ERevenue22972315249227492981CostofSales-617-681-732-822-926GrossProfit16791634175919272056OtherOperatingIncome2329343840OtherOperatingNetIncome-22-19-19-19-19AdministrationExpense-55-72-67-74-86ProfitfromOperation16261573170718721990InvestmentIncome19218177FinanceExpense-188-270-252-209-215ProfitbeforeTax14561304147316801782Incometax-222-298-353-420-446NetProfitIncludingMinorityInterest12351006111912601337MinorityInterest33445NetProfitExcludingMinorityInterest1232971111512551332SourceCompanyfilingsSWSResearch本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给华宸未来使用3Pleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers1OctoberJanuary122015122010BuildingFoodMaterialsBeverageCompanyCompanyTobaccoResearchCompanyResearchInformationDisclosureUndertakingsoftheAnalystIWeamareconferredtheProfessionalQualityofSecuritiesInvestmentConsultingIndustrybytheSecuritiesAssociationofChinaandhaveregisteredastheSecuritiesAnalystIherebyissuethisreportindependentlyandobjectivelywithduediligenceprofessionalandprudentresearchmethodsandonlylegitimateinformationisusedinthisreportIamalsoresponsibleforthecontentandopinionsofthisreportIhaveneverbeenamnotandwillnotbecompensateddirectlyorindirectlyinanyformforthespecificrecommendationsoropinionshereinDisclosurewithrespecttotheCompanyThecompanyisasubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritiesThecompanyisaqualifiedsecuritiesinvestmentconsultinginstituteapprovedbyChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissionTheaffiliatesoftheCompanymayholdortradetheinvestmenttargetsmentionedinthisreportinaccordancewiththelawandmayalsoprovideorseektoprovideinvestmentbankingservicesforthesetargetsTheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdisclosurewithinitssphereofknowledgeTheclientsmaycontactcomplianceswsresearchcomfortherelevantdisclosurematerialsorlogintowwwswsresearchcomfortheanalystsqualificationsthearrangementofthequietperiodandtheaffiliatesshareholdingsIntroductionofShareInvestmentRatingSecurityInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupofthesecurityandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthisreportwedefinethetermsasfollowsBUYSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20upsideOutperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20upsideHoldSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10downsideto10upsideUnderperformSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratebetween10-20downsideSELLSharepriceperformanceisexpectedtogeneratemorethan20downsideIndustryInvestmentRatingWhenmeasuringthedifferencebetweenthemarkupoftheindustryindexandthatofthemarketsbenchmarkwithinsixmonthsafterthereleaseofthereportwedefinethetermsasfollowsOverweightIndustryperformsbetterthanthatofthewholemarketNeutralIndustryperformsaboutthesameasthatofthewholemarketUnderweightIndustryperformsworsethanthatofthewholemarketWewouldliketoremindyouthatdifferentsecurityresearchinstitutionsadoptdifferentratingterminologiesandratingstandardsWeadopttherelativeratingmethodtorecommendtherelativeweightingsofinvestmentTheclientsdecisionstobuyorsellsecuritiesshallbebasedontheiractualsituationsuchastheirportfoliostructuresandothernecessaryfactorsTheclientsshallreadthroughthewholereportsoastoobtainthecompleteopinionsandinformationandshallnotrelysolelyontheinvestmentratingstoreachaconclusionTheCompanyemploysitsownindustryclassificationsystemTheindustryclassificationisavailableatoursalespersonnelifyouareinterestedHSCEIisthebenchmarkemployedinthisreportDisclaimerThisreportispublishedbySWSResearchCoLtdsubsidiaryofShenwanHongyuanSecuritieshereinafterreferredtoastheCompanyinmainlandChinaexcludingHongKongMacaoandTaiwanandtobeusedsolelybytheclientsoftheCompanyincludingQualifiedForeignInstitutionalInvestorsandotherqualifiedclientsinaccordancewiththelawTheCompanywillnotdeemanyotherpersonasitsclientnotwithstandinghisreceiptofthisreportTheclientsunderstandthatthetextmessagereminderandtelephonerecommendationarenomorethanabriefcommunicationoftheresearchopinionswhicharesubjecttothecompletereportreleasedontheCompanyswebsitehttpwwwswsresearchcomTheclientsmayaskforfollow-upexplanationsiftheysowishSaveandexceptasotherwisestipulatedinthisreportthecontactoruponthefirstpageofthereportonlyactsastheliaisonwhoshallnotprovideanyconsultingservicesThisreportisbasedonpublicinformationhowevertheauthenticityaccuracyorcompletenessofsuchinformationisnotwarrantedbytheCompanyThematerialstoolsopinionsandspeculationscontainedhereinarefortheclientsreferenceonlyandarenottoberegardedordeemedasaninvitationforthesaleorpurchaseofanysecurityorotherinvestmentinstrumentsThematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinonlyreflectthejudgmentoftheCompanyonthedaythisreportisreleasedThepricesvaluesandinvestmentreturnsofthesecuritiesorinvestmentinstrumentsreferredtohereinmayfluctuateAtdifferentperiodstheCompanymayreleasereportswhichareinconsistentwiththematerialsopinionsandestimatescontainedhereinTheclientsshallconsidertheCompanyspossibleconflictofinterestswhichmayaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandshallnotbasetheirinvestmentdecisionssolelyonthisreportTheclientsshouldmakeinvestmentdecisionsindependentlyandsolelyatyourownriskPleaseberemindedthatinanyeventthecompanywillnotsharegainsorlossesofanysecuritiesinvestmentwiththeclientsWhetherwrittenororalanycommitmenttosharegainsorlossesofsecuritiesinvestmentisinvalidTheinvestmentandservicesreferredtohereinmaynotbesuitableforcertainclientsandshallnotconstitutepersonaladviceforindividualclientsTheCompanydoesnotensurethatthisreportfullytakesintoconsiderationoftheparticularinvestmentobjectivesfinancialsituationsorneedsofindividualclientsTheCompanystronglysuggeststheclientstoconsiderthemselveswhethertheopinionsorsuggestionshereinaresuitablefortheclientsparticularsituationsandtoconsultanindependentinvestmentconsultantifnecessaryUndernocircumstancesshalltheinformationcontainedhereinortheopinionsexpressedhereinformsaninvestmentrecommendationtoanyoneUndernocircumstancesshalltheCompanybeheldresponsibleforanylosscausedbytheuseofanycontentshereinbyanyonePleasebeparticularlycautioustotherisksandexposuresofthemarketviainvestmentIndependentinvestmentconsultantshouldbeconsultedbeforeanyinvestmentdecisionisrenderedbasedonthisreportoratanyrequestofexplanationforthisreportwherethereceiverofthisreportisnotaclientoftheCompanyTheCompanypossessesallcopyrightsofthisreportwhichshallbetreatedasnon-publicinformationTheCompanyreservesallrightsrelatedtothisreportUnlessotherwiseindicatedinwritingallthecopyrightsofallthematerialshereinbelongtotheCompanyIntheabsenceofanypriorauthorizationbytheCompanyinwritingnopartofthisreportshallbecopiedphotocopiedreplicatedorredistributedtoanyotherpersoninanyformbyanymeansorbeusedinanyotherwayswhichwillinfringeuponthecopyrightsoftheCompanyAllthetrademarksservicemarksandmarksusedhereinaretrademarksservicemarksormarksoftheCompanyandnooneshallhavetherighttousethematanycircumstanceswithoutthepriorconsentoftheCompanyPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimers2