>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – NBS 2M23 data： Strong as expected-230315
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研究报告全文：15Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorNBS2M23dataStrongasexpectedOUTPERFORMMaintainNBS2M23salesvaluecameflattishYoYinlinewithourforecastHoweveritbeatChinafundsexpectationandstronglybeatforeignfundsexpectationthusdrivingtodayssectorrallyLookingatMarchweChinaPropertySectorexpectevenstrongerMarchdatapositivesalesYoYas1MTDsalesof30majorcitiesalreadyrecorded24growthYoY2OursalesleadingindicatorJeffreyZengGAINwasoneofthehighestinFebindicatingverypromisingMarch3Recent85239163727jeffreyzengcmbicomhkchannelcheckinmajorcitiessuggestssalesmomentumtocontinueonstabilizedpropertypriceandhistoricallylowmortgagerateFurthertoAprMaysalesareMiaoZhanglikelytostaypositiveaswellonaverylowbaseWethinkallthesewoulddrive85237618910themarkettoraisepropertysalesforecastOur23Esalesforecastflattishvszhangmiaocmbicomhkmarket-7YoYAmidtherecentpressureonpropertystocksweseeopportunitiestobuyDevelopersCRLYuexiuLongforBinjiangHuafaPropertyBellaLi85237576202managementYuexiuServiceCOPHBinjiangServiceCRMixcPropertybellalicmbicomhkagencyBEKENBSpropertydataof2M23continuouslyrecoveringinvestmentandnewstartscompletionperformedbetterondeliverysecuringpolicies-Propertyinvestmentrecoveredto-6YoYin2M23vs-12-20YoYinDecNov2022partlydrivenbythecontinuousandsharplynarroweddeclineinnewstarts-9YoYvs-44-51inDecNov2022-PropertysalesvalueturnedYoYflattishin2M23vs-28YoYinDec22whichwaswellexpectedgivenstrongdatareleasedbydevelopersreportHighfrequencydatawasalsostrongSecondaryhomesaleswentup88YoYMTDinMarandkeptYTDsaleshighat52YoYasof14MarThishasthepull-upimpactonnewhomesalesthatsaw24YoYriseMTDinMarandnarrowedtheYTDsalesdeclineto-7YoYInparticularnewhomesalesinTier3cities7YoYYTDpickedupfasterthanTier1-2cities-11YoYduetomuchlowerbaseGoingforwardweexpectsalesmomentumtocontinueas1oursalesleadingindicatorandchannelchecksuggestgoodmomentumboostedbyhistoricallylowmortgagerateandstabilizedpropertyprice2Policywouldremainsupportiveevidencedbycity-levelrelaxationsinHangzhou-Completiongrowthwasstrongat8YoYin2M23ThecompletedGFAsaw8increaseYoYvs-7inDec2022WethinkthisismainlybecausethedirectfundingsupportfromthecentralgovernmentandlocalbanksRMB550bnintotalareshowingtheresultsWeexpectcompletiongrowthtobein2023Easstatedinrevio-CompletedbutunsoldinventorygrowthisslowingdownTheoverallunsoldresidentialinventorywas327mnsqmup15YoYvs18YoYinDec2022WethinkthisisduetothesalesnewstartscausinginventorydigestionPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk15Mar2023Figure1Quickviewofnationalpropertydatain2M23SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure2LeadingindicatorGAINindicatesastrongMarchsalesSourceCompanyCRICCMBIGMFigure3Primarymarketweeklyunitssoldin30citiesSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE215Mar2023Figure4SecondarymarketweeklyGFAsoldin8citiesSourceWindCMBIGMFigure5PropertysectorcompsSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE315Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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