研究报告全文：14Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaPolicyNewcabinetseekstorestorebusinessconfidenceChinasnewcabinetleadersheldapressconferenceafterthecloseoftheNPCBingnanYEPhDsessionyesterdayPremierLiQiangoutlinedthreemajortasksforthenew85237618967cabinetaspeopleswell-beinghigh-qualitydevelopmentandreformsopeningyebingnancmbicomhkofChinaeconomyThepremiersoughttoboostbusinessconfidencewiththepromiseofunswervingsupportfortheprivatebusinessThenewcabinetseemspragmaticasmostleadershaverichworkexperienceinthesoutheasternprovincesorstrongindustrialtechnologybackgroundThepublicinstitutionalreorganizationindicatesChinesepolicymakersfocusontechnologyinnovationfinancialriskreliefanddigitaleconomydevelopmentinfutureThenewcabinethasthreemajortasksinnextfiveyears-Thefirstistoimprovepeopleswell-beingbymeetingpeoplesaspirationsLisaidmostpeopledonotkeeptheireyesonGDPgrowtheverydayastheyaremoreconcernedabouttheirdailylifelikehousingemploymentincomeeducationhealthcareandenvironmentalconditionThisdoesnotmeanthatChinanolongerneedsGDPgrowthbutthegrowthneedstobemoreinclusivesothatitcanimprovepeopleswell-beingandbenefiteveryoneThereforethecabinetwillpaymoreattentiontoinclusivegrowthandsocialdevelopmenttoimprovepeopleslivelihood-Thesecondistoboosthigh-qualitydevelopmentwithsciencetechinnovationmodernindustrialsystemandgreentransformationChinahastoaccelerateinnovationupgradeindustryandboostgreendevelopmenttoassuresustainablegrowthduetoagingpopulationclimbinglaborcostshighdebtburdenandrisingdemandforbetterenvironmentalcondition-ThelastistofirmlypushforwardreformsandopeningofChinaseconomytoboostbusinessconfidenceandstrengthenthegrowthmomentumNewpremierseekstoboostbusinessconfidence-FirstlyPremierLiQiangmadethecommitmenttoachievingthe5GDPgrowthtargetthisyearHeacknowledgedChinawillnotfinditeasytoachievethegrowthtargetduetouncertaintyinglobaleconomyandChinashugeGDPamountasahighbaseHoweverthepremiervowedtousemacropoliciesdemandboostmeasuresreforminnovationandriskreliefpoliciestomeetthegrowthtarget-SecondPremierLipledgedtoprovideunswervingsupportfortheprivatebusinesswithmeasurestoensurefaircompetitionandprotectpropertyrightsHesaidthePartyscommitmentinthisregardisunequivocalandsteadfast-ThirdlythepremiershowedthewillingnessofMainlandChinatorestartcross-straitvisitseconomiccooperationandculturalcommunicationwithChineseTaipei-LastPremierLialsoextendedconciliatoryremarkstowardsWashingtonandappealedformoregoodwillbetweenChinaandtheUSwhileblamingsomeAmericanvoicesforattemptingtodecouplethetwocountriesNewcabinetseemspragmaticasmostleadershaverichworkexperienceinSoutheastChinaorstrongindustrialtechnologybackgroundPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk14Mar2022-AtthepremierlevelLiQiangDingXuexiangandHeLifengworkedinthesoutheastprovincesforalongtimewithapro-businessreputationwhileZhangGuoqingandLiuGuozhonghadthemilitaryoraerospaceindustrialbackgroundAttheministerlevelmostleadersalsousedtoworkinEastandSouthChinaorhadastrongbackgroundinindustrialsortechnologyThisarrangementshowsthecabinetwillfocusonboostingeconomicgrowthtechinnovationindustrialupgradeswhiletheCCCPCwilldealwithSino-USstrategiccompetitionandsystematicriskpreventionWenotetheNPCvotedtoretainYiGangandLiuKunasthePBOCgovernorandMinisterofFinancerespectivelyTheirrespectiveleadershipinthecentralbankandMoFmaybeextendedforafewmonthstoseekasmoothtransitionduringtheperiodwithfinancialregulatoryreformsandcabinetreorganizationThepublicinstitutionalreorganizationindicatesChinasfocusontechinnovationfinancialriskreliefanddigitaleconomyinfuture-ThefirstimportantreorganizationisrelatedtosciencetechnologymanagementsystemTheCentralCommitteeoftheCommunistPartyofChinaCCCPCwillsetuptheCentralScienceTechnologyCommissiontoguidestrategiesandleverageresourcestoboostsciencetechnologyinnovationTheMinistryofScienceTechnologyMSTinthecabinetwillberestructuredwithlessroleindistributionofgovernmentRDfundsandmorefocusonstrategyplanspolicesandincentivemechanismstoboostoriginalinnovationinkeyareasCorporateswillplayamoreimportantroleindecidingtheflowofRDresourcesinfuture-ThesecondreformisonthefinancialregulatorysystemTheCCCPCwillsetuptheCentralFinancialWorkCommissiontooverseepoliciesfunctionsandkeypersonnelissuesinthefinancialsystemThePartytriestoassertmorecontroloverthestate-ownedpartofthesystemtomakesureitisinlinewiththecountrysstrategicgoalssystematicriskpreventiontechinnovationself-relianceindustrialupgradingandinclusivedevelopmentwithcommonprosperityIntheministryleveltheNationalFinancialRegulatoryAdministrationNFRAwillreplaceChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionCBIRCandtakeovercertainfunctionsofthePBOCregulationoverfinancialgroupcompaniesandfinancialconsumerprotectionandChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommissioninvestorprotectionChinasnewregulatorysystemmaybeabitsimilartothatinUKorAustraliaThecentralbankisresponsibleformonetarypolicyandmacroprudentialregulationtheNFRAisinchargeofinstitutionalfunctionandbehaviorregulationsoverbanksinsurersandfinancialconsumerprotectionandtheCSRCwilldealwithcapitalmarketregulationWhatisspecialforChinaisthesecuritiesregulatorhasaprominentresponsibilityinsupportingthecapitalfundraisingofhard-techandhigh-endmanufacturingsectorswhichareimportantforChinasstrategiccompetitionagainsttheUSTheNFRAwillenhanceverticalregulationoversmallregionalbanksbyboostingthecapacityofitsbranchesTheNFRAwillmonitorregionalfinancialriskmorecloselyinfutureInadditionthepolicymakersrequirelocalbankstofocusonregionalorcommunitydevelopmenttofacilitateinclusivedevelopmentasitmaybecomemoredifficultforregionalbankstoexpandtheirbusinessesacrossprovincesorregionsinfutureTheNFRAwillnottakepartinthepersonnelmanagementoverthefournationalAMCsassomecentralstate-ownedfinancialgroupsmaytakeoverthoseAMCswithassetandbusinessrestructuring-ChinawillsetuptheNationalDataBureauNDBtoratchetupdigitaleconomydevelopmentTheNDBwillpromotedatainfrastructureconstructionandintegrationsharingdevelopmentutilizationofdataresourcesacrossthecountryBytakingoverseveralregulatorsdata-relatedregulationresponsibilitiesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE214Mar2022theNDBcouldmaketheregulationpolicymoreconsistentandclearerforprivateandinternationalbusinessesinChinaThereformindicatesChinasfirmdeterminationtoboostthedevelopmentofdigitaleconomyandsmartsocietyinfutureTheChinesepolicymakersconsiderdataasanewfactorfortheproductionfunctionwhichcanboosttechinnovationandtotalfactorproductivityPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE314Mar2023Figure1NewPremiersStateCouncilorsNameAgePositionPossibleDutyKeywordsLiQiang64PremierinchargeofthecabinetZhejiangExecutivevicepremierinchargeofNDRCMoFDingXuexiang61EngineeringSecretaryofthepresidentenvironmentalprotectionetcVicepremierinchargeoffinancialsystemindustrialsHeLifeng68FujianNDRCtransportationtechnologyChangchunInstituteofOpticalMechanicsNanjingUniversityofZhangGuoqing59VicepremierinchargeofagriculturecommercetradeetcScienceandTechnologyVicepremierinchargeofeducationhealthcarecultureNanjingInstituteofTechnologyArtillerySystemFuseDesignandLiuGuozhong61sportsetcManufacturingWangXiaohong66StatecouncilorMinisterofPublicSecurityFujianpublicsecurityBeijingNationalUniversityofDefenseTechnologyXichangSatelliteLiShangfu65StatecouncilorMinisterofNationalDefenceLaunchCenterQinGang57StatecouncilorMinisterofForeignAffairsUKUSMachineryandEquipmentManufacturingStateCouncilNDRCWuZhenglong59SecretaryGeneraloftheStateCouncilJiangsuShenYiqin64StatecouncilorFemaleBaiEthnicHeritageSourceXinhuaNewsAgencyFigure2PublicinstitutionalreorganizationSourceXinhuaNewsAgencyCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE414Mar2023Figure3NewMinistersMinistryMinisterAgeKeywordsMinistryofForeignAffairsQinGang57UKUSNationalDevelopmentandReformCommissionZhengShanjie61FujianZhejiangAnhuiMinistryofElectronicsIndustryChinaNationalSoftwareChinaElectronicsMinistryofScienceTechnologyWangZhigang65TechnologyGroupTsinghuaUniversityNationalEthnicAffairsCommissionPanYue63OverseasChineseAffairsOfficeUnitedFrontWorkDeptJiangsuMinistryofStateSecurityChenYixin64ZhejiangCentralPoliticalLawCommissionMinistryofJusticeHeRong60ChinaUniversityofPoliticalScienceandLawSupremePeoplesCourtShaanxiOverseasChineseAffairsOfficeoftheStateCouncilCentralOrganizationMinistryofHumanResourcesSocialSecurityWangXiaoping59DepartmentLawMinistryofEcologyandEnvironmentHuangRunqiu60GeologyandenvironmenttheCentralCommitteeoftheJiusanSocietyMinistryofTransportLiXiaopeng64ShanxiChinaHuanengGrouppowerengineeringMinistryofAgricultureandRuralAffairsTangRenjian61GansuGuangxiagricultureMinistryofCultureandTourismHuHeping60TsinghuaShaanxiMinistryofVeteransAffairsPeiJinjia60FujianTaiwanaffairsPeoplesBankofChinaYigang65USIMFPekingUniversityMinistryofNationalDefenceLiShangfu65NationalUniversityofDefenseTechnologyXichangSatelliteLaunchCenterAcademiaSinicacomputerscienceelectricalengineeringintelligentcontrolMinistryofEducationHuaiJinpeng60BeijingUniversityofAeronauticsandAstronauticsCOMACChinaAerospaceScienceandTechnologyGroupShanghaiSpaceMinistryofIndustryandInformationTechnologyJinZhuanglong59AgencyWingedMissileDesignBeijingUniversityofAeronauticsandAstronauticsTheMinistryofPublicSecurityWangXiaohong66FujianpublicsecurityBeijingShanghaiMechanicalengineeringChinaArmamentGroupMinistryofIndustryMinistryofCivilAffairsTangDengjie59andInformationTechnologyFujianMinistryofFinanceLiuKun66GuangdongBudgetaryAffairsCommissionXiamenUniversityStateLandAdministrationnaturalresourcesmanagementgeographyPekingMinistryofNaturalResourcesWangGuanghua60UniversityMinistryofHousingandUrban-RuralDevelopmentNiHong60AnhuiseniorengineerHarbinInstituteofTechnologyMinistryofCommerceWangwentao59ShanghaiShandongNationalHealthCommissionMaXiaowei63HealthcareMinistryofEmergencyManagementWangXiangxi61CoalminingChinaEnergyInvestmentseniorengineerShanghaiMunicipalCommissionforDisciplineInspectionNationalSupervisoryNationalAuditOfficeHouKai61CommissionMinistryofWaterResourcesLiguoying60SeniorengineerYellowRiverwaterconservancySourceXinhuaNewsAgencyCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE514Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6