>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – Property+ Weekly： Facts proved that market is over worried-230310
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研究报告全文：10Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorPropertyWeeklyFactsprovedthatmarketisOUTPERFORMoverworriedMaintainMarchMTDsalescontinuedtosurprisemarketonthepositivesidewithnewhomesecondaryhomesalesup2182YoYThisisinlinewithoursalesChinaPropertySectorleadingindexGAINandourforecastupgradereportthatsalesismoreJeffreyZengsustainablethanwhatmarketthinksThesolidhousingrecoveryhasalso85239163727acceleratedthepriceofbasicmaterialslikeCement3WoWRebar1jeffreyzengcmbicomhkWoWGlass02andAluminum03WethinkmarketisoverconcernedonsalessustainabilityandlesspolicyeasingwhichgivesagoodMiaoZhangopportunitytoplayonthecontinuouslybetter-than-expecteddataandbuyquality85237618910namesWecontinuetolikeCRLandYuexiuLongforBinjiangHuafazhangmiaocmbicomhkPropertysalesinMarchfurtheracceleratedYoYAsof8Marsecondaryhomesaleswentup82YoYinMarchThishasthepull-upimpactonnewBellaLihomesalesthatsaw21YoYinMarchandYTDsalesdeclinenarrowingto85237576202-10YoYInparticularnewhomesalesinTier12citiesisleadingthesalesbellalicmbicomhkgrowthat22YoYinMarchwhilegrowthinTier34citieswasalsosolidat19YoYduetolowbaseGoingforwardweexpectsalesmomentumtocontinueas1oursalesleadingindicatorandchannelchecksuggestgoodmomentumboostedbyhistoricallylowmortgagerateandstabilizedpropertyprice2policywouldremainsupportiveasshownbelowPolicyremainssupportivewithcity-levelrelaxationalmosteverydayOn9MarFujianprovinceDalianandZhumadianHenanalltogetherannouncedrelaxingmeasurestosupportpropertysalesEspeciallyFujianprovinceplanstoissuehousingcouponstoboostshantytownredevelopmentandconsiderstoliftpurchasingrestrictionsinsomeareastogetherwithlowmortgagerateanddownpaymentratioWethinkthislevelofhousingsupportwouldhelpreversemarketslowexpectationonpolicyeasingCementpriceup2WoWNationalcementpricewentupstrongly2343WoWMoMtoRMB467mtasof8Marorup5afterCNYThisisinlinewiththestorageratiodropto615-2pptasof5MarItwasmainlycausedbythedemandrecoveryinregionslikeGuangdongLiaoningandShaanxitogetherwithmaterialcosthikecoalWethinkthecontinuousimprovementonpropertysalesandconstructionpeakseasonwouldfurtherpushupthecementpriceSteelrebarpriceup12WoWMoMatRMB4357mtasof9MarThisfollowsthesimilartrendofthecementpriceThereasonbehindisbecausethedemandpickuphasoutpacedtheresumptionrateofmillersAsthedownstreamdemandlikepropertywouldcontinuetoimproveitcouldcontinuetogivesupporttothesteelrebarpriceOthermaterialspriceforbothaluminumandfloatglassstabilizedafterthedeclineof15and04WoWlastweekWebelievethestrongsalesrecoveryandbettercashcollectionfordevelopersaswellassupportfromhomecompletionfundswillfurtherdrivethecompletiondemandandthepriceofrelatedmaterialsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk10Mar2023Figure1MarchMTDnewhomesalessurged21YoYvs-14-21-25in2M23Dec-22Nov-22SourceWindCMBIGMFigure2MarchMTDSecondaryhomesalessurged82YoYvs4642-12in2M23Dec-22Nov-22SourceWindCMBIGMFigure3NewhomesalesinTier12citiessaw22YoYinMarchMTDSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE210Mar2023Figure4NewhomesalesinTier3citiessaw19YoYinMarchMTDSourceWindCMBIGMFigure5LeadingindicatorsuggestsstrongsalesinMarchSourceNBSCMBIGMFigure6AvgpriceofbulkcementPO425nationwideSourceMySteelCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE310Mar2023Figure7NationalcementstorageratioSourceWindCMBIGMFigure8SteelrebarpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMFigure9AluminumingotpriceSourceMySteelCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE410Mar2023Figure105mmplainfloatglasspriceSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE510Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
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