研究报告全文：MN10Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBiocytogen2315HK2022previewFruitfulBDdealsWeexpecttheCompanysFY22Erevenuetogrow50YoYtoRMB533mnTargetPriceHK4051comparedto40YoYgrowthinFY21WeforecasttheCompanyspre-clinicalPreviousTPHK4385CROservicebusinesstorealizea50YoYrevenuegrowthinFY22EUpDownside621comparedto26YoYgrowthinFY21mainlydrivenbytheincreasingCurrentPriceHK2500demandsfromoverseaspartnerswhowerelessimpactedbyCOVID-19restrictionsin2022WeforecasttheantibodydevelopmentbusinesstomaintainChinaHealthcarestrongrevenuegrowthin2022withaYoYgrowthrateof51inFY22EvsaJillWUCFA116YoYgrowthinFY21drivenbythecontinuousannouncementsofout-85239000842licensingandco-developmentdealsTheslowerYoYrevenuegrowthinjillwucmbicomhkantibodydevelopmentinFY22EcomparedtoFY21wasmainlyduetotheAndyWANGimpactsofCOVID-19interruptionsandincreasingcostofcapitalfor85236576288BiocytogenspotentialpartnersinourforecastWeexpecttheCompanysandywangcmbicomhkFY22EnetlossatRMB567mnInFY23E24EweestimatetheCompanysrevenuetogrow4740YoYandnetlossestoreachRMB357mn204mnStockDatarespectivelyWeexpecttheCompanytoturnprofitablein2025EMktCapHKmn99850Avg3mthstoHKmn256FruitfulBDdealsfueledbyProjectIntegrumAsofJun2022Biocytogen52wHighLowHK235288hasreached28co-developmentdealswithvariousbiotechbiopharmaTotalIssuedSharesmn3994SourceFactSetcompanies11achievedin1H22undertheProjectIntegrumIn2H22theCompanyreachedmoreco-developmentdealsincludingpartnershipswithShareholdingStructureADCTherapeuticsFineImmuneHansohISUSyncromuneetcManagement275BiocytogenlaunchedtheProjectIntegruminMar2020basedonitsSDICShanghai183SourceHKExRenMiceplatformandinvivoefficacyscreeningmethodologyTheProjecttargetstoconcurrentlygenerateandscreenantibodiesagainstover1000SharePerformancepotentialantibodydrugtargetsAsofAug2022theProjecthascompletedAbsoluteRelative980targetknock-outsincluding280targetsenteringantibodyimmune1-mth-12493-mth-37-65stageand40targetsenteringthemolecularscreeningstageThe6-mth-14-73Companycouldcompletetheantibodymoleculeselectionfor200-300SourceFactSetpotentialtargetsperyearwithitsdevelopmentcapacityWeexpectthe12-mthPricePerformanceProjectIntegrumtocontinuouslybeadealenginetodrivetheCompanysfuturerevenuegrowthTounlockthevalueofin-housedevelopedassetsRecentlyBiocytogenout-licensedtheChinarightofYH008PD-1CD40toChipscreen688321CHwithatotalupfrontandmilestonepaymentofuptoRMB596mnTheCompanyhasrichin-housedevelopedclinicalpre-clinicalstageassetswithout-licenseopportunitiesincludingYH003CD40mAbYH008overseasSourceFactSetrightsYH006CTLA-4OX40YH012bsAbADCandYH013bsAbADCYH008PD-1CD40hasenteredPh1trialintheUSandChinawhichRelatedreportmayfacilitatetheex-ChinadealdiscussionsuponthedatareleaseYH003High-throughputantibodydiscoveryisbeingassessedinaPh2MRCTtrialcombowithPD-1forthetreatmentplatformempowersinnovationlink11ofmelanomaandpancreaticductaladenocarcinomawiththeenrolmentinOct2022theUSAustraliaandChinaongoingsmoothlyYH001CTLA-4hasenteredPh2stageassessmentbyTraconintheUSforsarcomatreatmentandBiocytogenisconductingaPh2MRCTtrialitselfforNSCLCandHCCMaintainBUYWeslightlyrevisedourTPtoHK4051fromHK4385basedona14-yearDCFmodelWACC107terminalgrowthrate20EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn2543555337821098YoYgrowth493398502469403NetprofitRMBmn42815456566535732035EPSReportedRMBnana142089051ROE898403468361287RDexpensesRMBmn276558656626659SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk10Mar2023Figure1Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationRMBmn2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035EEBIT-547-326-153151517104414771949244629103257360539264244Taxrate000000150150150150150150150150150150150EBIT1-taxrate-547-326-15312843988712561657207924742769306433373608DA717682889499104109113118122126130133-Changeinworkingcapital-99-70-87-127-207-194-242-229-246-200-152-145-123-116-Capex-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200-200FCFF-775-520-358-1111265929171336174721912538284531443425Terminalvalue40035TerminalvalueRMBmn9616TotalPVRMBmn14407NetdebtRMBmn163MinorityinterestRMBmn5EquityvalueRMBmn14240ofsharesmn399PricepershareRMBpershare357PricepershareHKpershare4051Terminalgrowthrate20WACC107CostofEquity135CostofDebt50EquityBeta100RiskFreeRate300MarketRiskPremium1050TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2SensitivityanalysisHKWACC42339710210711211730555849544436398835982552584708423238183454Terminalgrowthrate204996449140513666332615476743003890353032101045644129374634073105SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIGMestimatesrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue53378210986138791253-13-11-12GrossProfit389583828444647930-13-10-11OperatingProfit54132315043525343NANANANetprofit56735720446028796NANANAEPSRMB142089051115072024NANANAGrossMargin729774497540725073657425047ppt084ppt115pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue53378210985848771233-9-11-11GrossProfit389583828413633898-5-7-7OperatingProfit54132315045427643NANANANetprofit56735720444227259NANANAEPSRMB142089051112068012NANANAGrossMargin729774497540707172187285227ppt231ppt256pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE210Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue1702543555337821098Costofgoodssold7387107144200270Grossprofit97167247389583828Operatingexpenses318525753930906978Sellingexpense2932425376104Adminexpense140245188240219230RDexpense159276558656626659Others21910000Operatingprofit221358506541323150Otherexpense8511839253453Othergainslosses11926191516ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV000000Pre-taxprofit306477546567357204Incometax000000Aftertaxprofit306477546567357204Minorityinterest43490000Netprofit263428546567357204BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets6721148874641716964Cashequivalents246750466156105196Accountreceivables58115183255373520Inventories3815202838Othercurrentassets344254168168168168Contractobtainingcosts202142424242Non-currentassets55111791429155716811799PPE53311361391152116451763Intangibles226444Othernon-currentassets154132323232Totalassets122223272303219923972763Currentliabilities1410328447426481551Accountpayables1888102118164222Taxpayable21427272727Othercurrentliabilities126200000Leaseliabilities90179256256256256Contractliabilities384862253547Non-currentliabilities31854060460411041604Long-termborrowings00005001000Deferredincome919093939393Othernon-currentliabilities227450511511511511Totalliabilities17288681051103015862156Sharecapital37360375375375375Otherreserves5421098877794436233Totalshareholdersequity505145812521169811608Totalequityandliabilities122223272303219923972763PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE310Mar2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation306477546567357204Depreciationamortization284312871082Taxpaid000000Changeinworkingcapital792910997087Others162237622511053Netcashfromoperations37225366568317155InvestingCapitalexpenditure153296199200200200Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term591393650000investmentsOthers3101285535253453Netcashfrominvesting40418884225234253FinancingDividendpaid000000Proceedsfromshareissues50094831148300Others1180920500500Netcashfromfinancing490868219483500500NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear14697466156105Exchangedifference1992460000Cashattheendoftheyear246697466156105196GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenuena493398502469403Grossprofitna719482571499420PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin572659698730745754Operatingmargin1302141414271016413137ReturnonequityROEna898403468361287GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecCurrentratiox053520151517Receivableturnoverdays77996810611000990980Inventoryturnoverdays00337516516516516Payableturnoverdays88022173238300030003000VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE410Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5