>> 招银国际-Fixed Income Daily Market Update -230309
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研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary9Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报Marketsweretwo-wayamidbettersentimentthismorningAsianIGoveralltightenednewissueBNKEA67527narrowedc15bpsTMTstightened3-GlennKoCFA高志和5bpsandTENCNTswerebetterbuyingWealsosawactivesellingflowon85236576235Perpscallablein2023glennkocmbicomhkSJMHOLWeakFY22resultsasexpectedbutturnedpositiveEBITDAYTDWestillconsiderSJMHOLsoffergoodriskandreturnprofiledespitetheconvictionislowerafterthesharpreboundsinceNov22SJMHOLswereCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩unchangedto025ptbymid-daySeebelow85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkLMRTSPRepurchasedUSD6mnofUSD250mnLMRTSP725061924DowngradedtoCCCbyFitchLMRTSPswereunchangedthismorningJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkAsiaIGspacewasrelativelysilentyesterdayamidUST2Yyieldssurgedto505overnightitshighestlevelsince2007NewissueswerestillactiveasCICCHK26tightened2bpsandHSBC29swereunderbetterbuyingfromPBsKBANK28sweretradedinsmalltwo-wayintherangeofT106-107AwayfromnewissuesmarketwasinadefensivetonepostPowellshawkishspeechonTuesdaynightandIGspreadsopened1-3bpswiderThe10ybenchmarkweretradedabitheavyonRMsellingLonger-tenorChinaSOEscontinuedtoperformsoftlyHAOHUASINOCHmarchedanother3-7bpswiderwhileitsfrontendpapershaddecentsupportwithall-inyieldbuyersloadedupagainChinaTMTsAMCsalsounderperformedTENCNTBABA30s31swereinitiallytraded5-10bpswiderthenrecovered2-5bpstoclose3-5bpswiderHRINTHwidened2-4bpsChinafinancialswererelativelystableBankT2werefirmwithCCBstightened2-5bpsLeasingnamesoutperformedwithBOCAVIICBCILtightened3-9bpsacrossthecurveChinapropertyspacewasunchangedtoatouchweakerCOGARDsmoved05-125ptslowerFUTLANsFTLNHDsweretradeddown075-125ptsMoodysdowngradedSeazensCFRtoB1fromBa3anddowngradeditsseniorbondsratingtoB2fromB1SINOCEswereflatMoodysdowngradedSino-OceansCFRtoBa3fromBa2withoutlookremainednegativeCENCHIsweredown075-15ptsandCIFIHGsedged05ptlowerNon-propertyspaceperformedmixedFSHITZHILOHO24s25sweretraded05-1pthigherwhilstEHICAR26sCARINC24sdroppedaround2ptsMacaugamingspaceretraced1ptofftherecenthighsSTCITYsWYNMACsdrifted05-15ptslowerInIndianspaceAdanicomplexbondswerebettersupportedVEDLNsweredownaround05ptandrenewablesGRNKENsRPVINswereunchangedto05ptlowerIndonesiannamesLPKRIJsLMRTSPsgrindeddown05ptPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk19Mar2023IntheLGFVAsiaAT1PerpspacesactivitiesweremorequietafterthevolatilityinratesovernightFlowswereskewedtobettersellinginlightofthe10-20bpssurgeinUSTyieldsledbylow-yielding6orbelowLGFVsthatleaked0125-075ptlowerNewJJUCID24swaspricedat668openingataround10031005LiquidAT1sSOEPerpsalsounderperformedamidriskoffsentimentbutgenerallyfoundsupportwhilestabilizingabitbeforecloseNewCTIH64Perpmoved0375-0625ptlowerthenChinesesupportre-emergedat10010025NewHSBC8Perppulledback05ptto101amidRMFMbettersellingdespitebetterbuyingfromPBsBenchmarkAT1sICBCAS32BOCOM38Perpsended025lowertobequotedat9225and9475respectivelywhilewealsosawsomeshortcoveringintereststhereMeanwhileHKFFLPerpsweremarkeddown1-15ptsLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeFSHITZ303152594708EHICAR7092126709-20HILOHO93411182452007CARINC934033124950-20CHNAAR51203082492307STCITY6071525934-14FSHITZ4307272498306CENCHI734052424343-13HILOHO93411182451306FIRPAC438091127932-13MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketswereweakyesterdaySP014Dow-018andNasdaq040weredivergentasmarketwerecautiousaheadofimportantNFPdatareleasedinFridayUSADPjobsincreased242kinFeb23rosefrom119kinJan23andhigherthanforecastof200kTheUStreasuryyieldsedgedupyesterdaythe251030yieldsreached505434398388respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点SJMHOLWeakFY22resultsasexpectedbutturnedpositiveEBITDAYTDSJMreportedweakFY22resultsduetothebreakdownofCOVIDstartedmid2022andthestringentquarantinepoliciesinMacauInFY22itsnetgamingrevenuefell366toHKD61bnandnegativeadjpropertyEBITDAwidened1132toHKD28bnreflectedthesignificantdeclineintouristvisitationandgamingrevenueThatsaidits4Q22gamingrevenuerebounded504toHKD14bnqoqwiththerelaxationofquarantinepoliciesMacaureopeningtheborderandremovedquarantinepoliciesinearlyJan23AsperSJMitturnedEBITDApositiveYTDeventhoughGLPremainedinnegativeEBITDAItsYTDrecoveryisbetterthantheoverallMacaulevelandtherecoveryappearstobeacceleratingSJMexpectsGLPtoachieveEBITDAbreakevenby3-4Q23withmorehotelroomsandgamingtablesSofaronly13ie504hotelroomsand150gamingtablesoutof250approvedwereopenedSJMhaspassedthepeakfundingrequirementsSubsequenttothevariousfundingexercisesCBstoandshareholderloansfromSTDMsyndicatedloansandrightsissuelastyearSJMdoesnotneedtoincuradditionaldebtsIthadHKD7bncashonhandasatDec22Itscapitalcommitmentforthecoming10-yearconcessionperiodiscHKD14bnorcHKD14bnpaincludingopexofcHKD6bnandcHKD2bnrefurbishmentofHotelGrandLisboatobefundedwithshareholdersloansobtainedExcludingtheremainingcapexofcHKD1bnforGLPitsongoingcapextobefundedwillbecHKD500mnpaThisshouldbeadequatelycoveredbyitscashonhandandimprovingoperatingcashflowWeliketherecoverystoryanddecliningcapexfundingrequirementsforMacaugamingsectorTheUSDbondsofMacaugamingsectorrebounded10-40ptssinceNov22Whiletheconvictionisloweraswediscussed29Mar2023beforewestillconsiderthesectorofferinggoodcarrywithbondperformancetobesupportedbytheirresumptionofcapitalmarketaccessasreflectedbyWynnMacausCBsissuedlastweekwhichtraded5ptsalreadyFromarisk-returnperspectivewepreferSJMHOLsMPELsandSTCITYsmoreOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFBankofEastAsia5004NC3675T210Baa2BBB-Turkey22506yr937595B3-BOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere148creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB128bnAsforMonth-to-date589creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB488bnraisedrepresentinga122yoyincreaseChinaFeb23CPIis10yoyand-05momADEINMediareportedAdaniGrouphasrepaidaUSD500mnbridgeloandue9MarEXCECPMediareportthatPostalSavingsBankofChinasignedstrategicagreementwithExcellenceGrouptopotentiallyofferRMB10bncUSD144bncreditlineFUTLANMoodysdowngradedSeazenGroupsratingstoB1B2andchangedoutlooktostableGMRLINGMRHyderabadInternationalAirporttoacceptUSD9995mnGMRLIN5375041024intermsofUSD100mntenderofferLMRTSPFitchdowngradedLippoMallsIndonesiaRetailTrusttoCCCThecompanyrepurchasedUSD6mnofLMRTSP725061924MPELMelcoplanstobuyback295stakefromtopshareholderMelcoLeisureandEntertainmentGroupforUSD1698mnROADKGMoodysdowngradedRoadKingsratingstoB1andchangedoutlooktostableSINOCEMoodysdowngradedSino-OceansratingstoBa3andplacednegativeoutlookVNKRLEChinaVankeshareholdersapproveproposalonuptoRMB15bncUSD216bnnon-publicissuanceofAshares39Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport4
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