研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary10Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereweakthismorningAsianIGoverallwidened5-15bpsTMTnamesLENOVOBABATENCNTwidenedmorethanFinancialsNewissueGlennKoCFA高志和BNKEA67527widened10bpsAT1werealmostunchanged85236576235glennkocmbicomhkChinaEconomyInflationdeclinesasaggregatedemandremainsweakCMBIexpectsChinasinflationmayfurtherdeclineinnext2-3monthsbeforepickingupfrom2H23WemaintainourforecastforCPIgrowthat22andPPIgrowthat-05in2023SeebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩research85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkAGILEAsperthelatestCCASSrecordchangetheChenfamilytransferredc36stakeswithmarketvalueofcHKD36bncRMB32bntoHSBCWealthRecalledthatAgilewillhaveanonshorebondsofRMB145bnJerryWang王世超puttableon9Apr23TheprincipalandaccrualinterestwillbeRMB15bnin85237618919aggregatejerrywangcmbicomhkTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点YesterdayAsiaIGspacewasrelativelyfirmOntheprimarysidenewUSD500mnBNKEA27sthatpricedatCT3210CT2177open15bpstighterwithverystrongPBbuyingandwastradedactivetwo-waybetweenT163-165beforelunchItretracedabitpostLondoncameintocloseatT168BenchmarkIGsopened1-3bpstighteramidstreetpushingbutgavebackthegaininthePMsessionamidweakmacrosentimentFlowsturnedbettersellingonrecentissuessuchasHSBC616129NC28ChinafinancialswerefirmwithsupportfromChineseAMsPropsThereweretwowayflowsonBankT2ssuchasCCBBCHINAICBCASwhichclosedunchangedInChinaSOEsTMTssentimentstabilizedasthemarketwaswaitingfortheFebruaryUSlabormarketreportthisFridayandCPIdatanextweekWesawbankaccountsbuyingonSOEsSINOPEcurveclosedunchangedto3bpstighterHAOHUAcurvetightened1-3bpswithits30sclosedatT201TMTsectorwerestrongerTENCNT29s30stightened2-4bpstoT135andT157respectivelyBABAcurvegotbalancedtwo-wayinterestsInIGpropertiesLNGFORsVNKRLEswidened10-20bpsonlightflowsChineseHYpropertyspacewereweakpostthemultipledowngradesCOGARDsnotablymoved2-3ptslowerFTLNHD25s26sweredown15ptsGRNLGRsdropped15-25ptswhileAGILE25s26sweretradedunchangedto05ptloweratmid-50sHoweverlowcashpricestaledpapersZENENT23s24swere1-45ptshigherIndustrialnamesunderperformedFOSUNIsweredownaround05ptCARINCrecoveredWednesdayslossesandclosed175ptshigherat9675MacaugamingspacewasunchangedIndianandIndonesianspaceweremutedPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk110Mar2023IntheAsiaAT1PerpLGFVspacesactivitiesremainedontheslowersideOvernightratesretracedaround5-10bpsdespitestrongerthanexpectedADPdataMarketwascautiouswithallfocusonFridayNFPBankAT1spacehadsomeshortcoveringinterestsgiventherecentweaknessAT1sbroadlyclosedunchangedto0125-025pthigherwithsomebetterbuyingflowsonthebig5banksAT1sBCHINA36PerpBOCOM38Perpwastradedrelativelyfirmat9615and9495respectivelyNewHSBC8Perpwas0375ptlowerNewCTIHperpwereunchangedat1001510025ElsewhereHYSANcurvewasmarked05-125pthigherLGFVspaceremainedquietbutwithmoredemandonqualitynamesfromChineseAMsShandongnameswerestillactivelytradedandperformedstableQDJZWDsQDHTCOsdrifted0125ptlowerwithsmallsellingonfrontendbutwerewelldigestedLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeZENENT121209132355344COGARD518011427607-30CARINC93403312496717COGARD42020626610-29YNPOWE412PERP97014COGARD714040826645-28ZENENT121204232452311COGARD558121526617-28HYSAN35506163583013COGARD54052725674-28MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsretreatedalotyesterdaySP-185Dow-166andNasdaq-205droppedasmarketsareworriedaboutNFPdatawhichmaybehigherthanforecastof225kasFeb23ADPwasstrongerthanexpectedTheUStreasuryyieldsoveralldownyesterdayyieldcurvesbullsteepenedthatthe251030yieldsreached490422393388respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaEconomyInflationdeclinesasaggregatedemandremainsweakChinasCPIgrowthwasfarbelowexpectationsinFebruaryasconsumerdemandremainedweakandthefluctuationofporksupplycauseditspricecollapseDurablepricescontinuedtodeclinewhilehousingrentandservicecostmildlyimprovedPPIfurtherdeclinedasglobaldemandforgoodsremainedweakwhilestrongserviceinflationcausedstrongerFedtighteningWeexpectChinasinflationmayfurtherdeclineinnext2-3monthsandthenpickupin2H23-2024astheeconomycontinuestorecoverThereflationshouldbemildforChinaasdomesticdemandrecoveryisinagradualmannerandoverseaseconomymayseearecessionTheweakreflationindicatesthatChinacontinuestohavenegativeoutputgapthisyearThecountryhastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytosupportthegrowthCPIgrowthdroppedtothelowestsincelastFebruaryCPIincreased10YoYinFebruarydownfrom21inJanuaryMeanwhiletheYoYgrowthofcoreCPIdeclinedfrom1to06indicatingconsumerdemandremainedweakByiteminflationinstapleslikemilkalcoholicdrinksandmedicinesmildlyclimbedasdemandincreasedHoweverpricesindurableslikehomeappliancesvehiclesandtelecomequipmentcontinuedtodeclinefromtheYoYperspectiveasthedemandremainedweakInflationineducationhomeserviceremainedlowwhilehousingrentcontinuedtodeclineaslabormarketwasnotstrongFromtheMoMperspectiveCPIdeclined05inFebruaryafterrising08inJanuarySpecificallyporkandtourismpricesdeclinedsignificantlywhilethepriceinvehiclefuelmilkandalcoholdrinksroseMoM210Mar2023PPIfurtherdeclinedascommoditiespricesretreatedwithexpectationsofstrongerFedtighteningandhigherrecessionriskPPIdropped14YoYinFebruaryafterdecreasing08inJanuaryFromtheMoMperspectivePPIheldflatinFebruarycomparedtoadeclineof04inJanuaryGlobalcommoditiespricescontinuedtodeclineasinvestorsexpectedstrongerFedtighteningandhigherrecessionriskaheadInFebruarynon-metalmineralproductsrubberplasticproductsandgeneralequipmentdropped0703and02MoMrespectivelyAsthereopeningimprovedtrafficmobilityanddemandforenergyPPIincrudeoilnaturalgasrose17MoMwhilepetroleumcoalprocessingpriceincreased06MoMHowevercoalpricesdroppedby22MoMinFebruaryasChinaexpandedcoalimportstolowerenergycostsWemaintainforecastforCPIgrowthat22andthatforPPIgrowthat-05in2023TheCPIgrowthmayremainlowinMarchandAprilandthengraduallyclimbastheeconomycontinuestoresumeWeexpecttheCPIgrowthtoreach22in2023and25in2024ThePPImayfurtherdeclineinthenexttwomonthsbeforegraduallyimprovingin2H23WeexpectthePPItodrop05in2023andrise16in2024ChinahastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostgrowthChinasweakreflationindicatesitsgrowthremainsfarbelowpotentialthisyearThecountryhastomaintaineasingcreditpolicytoboostgrowthThepolicymakersmayfacethepressuretoeasepolicyagainafterafewmonthsasthedomesticrecoverypacemayslowandoverseaseconomybracesforarecessionClickhereforfullreportAGILEThelatestCCASSrecordchangeTheChenfamilytransferredc36ofthefamilysstakesinAgileon8Mar23toHSBCWealthThefamilyhas626stakesinAgileAspertheCCASSrecordstakesunderHSBCWealthincreasedto505from145startedfrom8Mar23ThemarketvalueofadditionalstakeswithHSBCWealthisworthcHKD36bnbasedonthelastcloseAssumingaLTVof50thec36stakescouldbeusedtosecurefinancingofcHKD18bnorRMB16bnRecalledthatAgilewillhaveanonshorebondsofRMB145bnputtableon9Apr23TheprincipalandaccrualinterestwillbeRMB15bninaggregateOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere132creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB130bnAsforMonth-to-date724creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB622bnraisedrepresentinga18yoyincrease310Mar2023ADEINMediareportedthatAdanihasrepaidallloansbackedbygroupcompaniessharesCIFIHGMediareportedthatCIFIHoldingsplanstosellseveralcommercialpropertyassetsinShanghaiincludingheadquartersFTHDGRFantasiaHoldingsnotesUSD4bnoffshoredebtrestructuringagreementbecameeffective9MarchGCLNEGCLNewEnergyexpectsFY22netlosswidenedtoatleastRMB13bncUSD1867mnduetoimpairmentlossJDJDcom4Q22revenuerose7yoytoUSD424bnandEBITDAup1133yoytoUSD13bnKAISAGKaisaProsperitysharetradingtoresumeon10Mar23followingfulfillmentofHKExsharetradingresumptionguidanceitexpectsFY22revenuetodropupto35yoyprofitincrease60yoytoRMB90mnLOGPHMediareportedthatLoganadvisorscirculatedraftproposingseven-yeartermforrestructuredUSD362bnoffshorebondssixyearsformostotheroffshoredebtLVGEMLVGEMreachedanagreementtoexchange50ofLVGEM12031023fortwo-yearprivateplacementnotesSMCPMSanMiguelCorpreceivesboardapprovalforprivateplacementof270mnseries2preferredsharesSUNACSunacaimstosignrestructuringagreementwithad-hocbondholdergroupinthisweekVNKRLEChinaVankeCFOsaidthecompanyhaspreparedforUSDbondspaymentdueAprilMayCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownrisk410Mar2023TheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport5