研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary13Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报Marketswereoveralltwo-waybalancedthismorningAsianIGwidened5-10bpsasUSTratesdroppedChinanameswidenedc5bpsnon-ChinaGlennKoCFA高志和nameswidened5-10bpsandsellingflowsweremainlyonfinancials85236576235glennkocmbicomhkChinaPolicyCreditgrowthreboundedamideasingcreditpolicySeebelowforcommentsfromoureconomicresearchChinesePropertiesMoredifferentiatedcontractedsalesamongstCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩developers37developersrecordedRMB5395bncontractedsalesintotal85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkrepresenting143yoydropSeebelowTradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点JerryWang王世超85237618919LastFridayAsiaIGspaceopenedinarisk-offmoodonthebackthecollapsejerrywangcmbicomhkofSVBUSTyieldstightened20-25bpsfromThursdaycloseasthemarketexpectedratehikeshouldtakeapausetoavoidfurtherspilloverofthecollapseofSVBNewBNKEA27sopened10bpswiderunderlargesellingpressuredespitebuyingflowsfromPBsKBANK28swidened5bpsandCICCHK26Nedged3bpswiderAwayfromthenewissuefrontflowswereunderbettersellingdrivenbyprofittakingInfinancialsleasingspacewidened5-10bpswhilebankT2sended3-5bpswiderAMCsremainedunderbettersellingonGRWALLHRINTHHRINTHcurveledthefalltoclose1-2ptslowerandits29sweremarkeddownaround3ptsincashpricesCCAMCLweretradedmoreresilientwithitslongendwidened10bpsChinaTMTsalsonotablyunderperformedwhileSOEswereatouchweakerTENCNT30s31sweretraded15bpswidertoT170HAOHUASINOCHwidened5-10bpsandotherSOEswereonly1-5bpswiderElsewhereKoreaspacewasoverall2-5bpswiderwithKHFCHYUELEunderperformedKoreaBankT2sKEBHNBWOORIBwereunderbettersellingSGspacehadthesimilarthemeasKoreawithitsT2sectorwidened5-10bpsChinaHYspaceheldrelativelystableandclosedunchangedto1ptlowerCOGARDsFUTLANsFTLNHDsdropped2-3ptsSINOCEsweredown1-2ptsThelongendofDALWANsmoved15ptslowerAGILEGRNLGR25s26sweredown05-15ptsFrontendofCENCHIsCHINSCswereunderbetterbuyingMacaugamingspacewassubduedwithMPELSANLTDSTCITY28-30sdriftedaround15ptslowerElsewhereFOSUNI26-27scloseddown15ptsHILOHO24sEHOUSE23swerebidup05-15ptsInIndiaspaceVEDLNsandrenewableswereunchangedto05ptlowerMoodysdowngradedVRLsCFRtoCaa1fromB3withnegativeoutlookIndonesianspacewassilentIntheAsiaAT1PerpLGFVspacessentimentwaslargelyfirmonFridaybyvirtueofunexpectednarrowedratesovernightAT1spacewere01-025pthigheronratesmovementandPerpsclosed025-0375pthigheronChineseRMbuyingBCHINA36PerpBOCOM38PerpwerestablewithrobustPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk113Mar2023demandICBCAS32Perpwastradedup02pttobequotedat9225925NewHSBC8Perpwasinitiallydownto100125posttheSVBheadlinesHoweveritretrievedsomeintradaylosseswithPBFMaddingtoclosearound1005still05ptlowerthantheThursdaycloseNewCTIHperpwereunchangedat10035ElsewhereROADKGperpsweremarked05pthigherOverallflowwaslightandskewedtobettersellingandalleyesonNFPonFridaynightLGFVspaceremainedrelativelystableonFridayinlightofunexpectednarrowedratesLGFVflowswerequietwhileShandongnameswerestillactivelytradedSHUGRPSHGUOHwereindicated0125ptloweramidmixedtwo-wayLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeSINOPE4609124895422HRINTH412052929773-30CHIOLI31803023577922HRINTH378111329733-29SINOPE36808084981921COGARD518011725657-29CITLTD48504254697522COGARD612040824773-28CITLTD47802044196422COGARD318102225590-27MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketscontinuedtodroponlastFridaySP-145Dow-107andNasdaq-176wereaffectedbybankruptofSVBTheUSFeb23NFPwasreleasedas311khigherthanexpectationof225kwhileunemploymentrateincreasedto36from34AlbeitNFPdataishigherthanforecastthemarketsexpectFEDmaymoderateitsinterestratehikepaceafterSVBsfailureUStreasuryyieldsdownonlastFridayyieldcurvesbullsteepenedthatthe251030yieldsreached460496370370respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaPolicyCreditgrowthreboundedamideasingcreditpolicyChinareportedunexpectedlystrongcreditgrowthinFebruaryascreditdemandfromlocalgovernmentsSOEswasstrongwhilethatfromhouseholdsgraduallyrecoveredTherecentincreaseofmoneymarketratesindicatesanormalizationofliquidityconditionfromexcessiveeasingtomildeasingasnewcreditsupplyandhousingmarketrecoverybeatexpectationsin2M23WebelievemoneymarketrateshavealreadyreturnedtoreasonablelevelsThePBOChastomaintainreasonableampleliquidityconditionandeasingcreditpolicytorelievedebtriskandboostthegrowthTherecentfailureofSiliconValleyBankhascausedcontagiousrisk-offsentimentandincreasedglobalmarketvolatilityThePBOCmaytemporarilyincreaseliquiditysupplytooffsetitsspillovereffectonChinasfinancialmarketChinasnewcreditfurtherbeatexpectationsinFebruaryTotalsocialfinancingrose1597YoYinFebruaryafterdeclining31YoYinJanuaryOutstandingsocialfinancingpickedup99YoYatend-Februaryafterrising94YoYatend-JanuaryM2supplygrewatoneofthefastestpacessince2016at129YoYatend-FebruaryTheYoYgrowthofnewRMBloanstotherealsectorjumpedfrom174inJanuaryto1004inFebruarythankstostrongloansupplytocorporatesandreboundinginmortgageloanstohouseholdsMeanwhilegovernmentbondfinancingincreased199YoYafterdropping313YoYinJanuaryindicatingstrongborrowingdemandfromlocalgovernmentsbecauseoftheirdifficultfiscalconditionaswellasthepro-growthpolicyshiftfromthetopCorporatebondfinancingalsoimprovedbyslightlyrising09YoYinFebruaryafterplunging745YoYinJanuaryaslargecorporatescapexdemandstartedtoimproveNewforeign213Mar2023currencyloansreboundedtoapositivenumberforthefirsttimesincelastAprilafterthelatestroundofrenminbirallyNewtrustloansalsoturnedpositiveforthefirsttimeinrecenttwoyearsindicatingareliefofcreditriskinpropertydevelopmentprojectsLocalgovernmentsandSOEshadstrongcreditdemandwhilemortgageloansimprovedwithhousingmarketrecoveryNewmediumlongtermloanstoenterprisesrose1197YoYinFebruaryafterclimbing667YoYinJanuarySOEslocalgovernmentfinancingvehiclesandmanufacturingmayhavecontinuedtodominateinthenewloanstoenterprisesinFebruaryAccordingtoChinaBankingandInsuranceRegulatoryCommissionnewloanstoinfrastructureleasingbusinessserviceincludingindustrialparksandmanufacturingsectorsaccountedfor62intotalnewloansinJanuaryBanksbilldiscountfinancingremainednegativeinFebruaryasthestrongloandemandfromSOEsandlargecompaniescrowdedoutfinancingtosmallandmediumprivatebusinessesTheborrowingofhouseholdsindicatedarecoveryinhousingmarketandconsumptionexpenditureinFebruaryNewmediumtolongtermloanstohouseholdsmainlymortgagefinancingreachedRMB863bninFebruarycomparedtoRMB459bninthesameperiodlastyearNewshort-termloanstohouseholdsalsoimprovedsharplyfromanegativenumberlastFebruarytoRMB1218bnthisFebruaryChinawillmaintaineasingcreditpolicytorelievedebtriskandboostthegrowthTherecentincreaseofmoneymarketratesindicatesanormalizationoftheliquidityconditionfromexcessiveeasingtomildeasingasnewcreditsupplyandhousingmarketrecoverybeatexpectationsin2M23WebelievemoneymarketrateshavealreadyreturnedtoreasonablelevelsandthePBOCwillsharplytightenthemonetarypolicyaheadChinasGDPgrowthremainsbelowthepotentialgrowthasthereflationpressureisquitelowMeanwhilethepropertysectorandlocalgovernmentsstillfacestressThePBOChastomaintainreasonableampleliquiditysupplyandeasingcreditpolicytoboostthegrowthandrelievedebtriskthisyearTherecentfailureofSiliconValleyBankhascausedcontagiousrisk-offsentimentandincreasedglobalmarketvolatilityThePBOCmaytemporarilyincreaseliquiditysupplytooffsetitsspillovereffectonChinasfinancialmarketClickhereforfullreportChinesePropertiesMoredifferentiatedcontractedsalesamongstdevelopersIn2M2337developersunderourradarexclCAPGasnodatadisclosedreportedcontractedsalesofRMB5395bnintotalrepresenting143yoydropThatsaid10outof37developerspostedyoycontractedsalesgrowthin2M23whilemostofthedevelopersreportedmomcontractedsalesgrowthasJan23saleswereaffectedbytheearlierCNYholidayState-ownedquasi-sovereignandnon-distresseddevelopersareamongsttheoutperformersin2M23withYUEXIURMB226bn187yoyCRHZCHRMB402bn60yoyCHIOLIRMB406bn59yoyandLONGFORRMB183bn40UnderperformersareRONXINRMB23bn-84yoyLOGPHRMB33bn-75yoyandJIAYUARMB07bn-74yoy313Mar2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFUETDConstructionDevelopmentState-owned603yr7575---CapitalInvestmentOperationOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineToday413Mar2023NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere97creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB79bnAsforMonth-to-date816creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB704bnraisedrepresentinga86yoyincreaseADEINMediareportedthatAdaniGroupseekslendersapprovaltosellupto5stakeinAmbujaCementforUSD450mnAdaniGroupfullyprepaidshare-backedfinancingaggregatingtoUSD215bnCIFIHGCIFIHoldingsexpectstorecordlossofuptoRMB14bnforFY22CIFIalsodisclosedthatthekeytermsoftheholisticoffshoredebtrestructuringare1nohaircut2voluntarydebttoequityorCBsswap3cashcouponcut4maturityextensionofnolongerthan7years5upfrontcashfeeand6creditenhancementCOGARDCOGARDexpectsturntolossforFY22EDUMoodysaffirmedNewOrientalEducationBa1ratingandchangedoutlooktostablefromnegativeGRNCHGreentownsubsidiarybuybackRMB27876mnofitsonshorebondsfromopenmarketGreentownServiceexpectsFY22profittodropupto40yoyJINGRUJingruiHoldingstosellcommercialbuildinginShanghaitoCCBforRMB1324mnLIHHKLifestyleChinaexpectstoturntolossforFY22LOGPHLoganhascirculatedoffshorerestructuringdrafttobondholdersitexpectstorecorduptoRMB9bnnetlossforFY22LVGEMLVGEMhaspaidLVGEM12031023ROADKGRoadKingInfrastructureexpectsFY22netprofittodropupto78yoytoHKD430mn-480mnduetoexchangelossSMCPMSanMiguelCorpannouncesindicativepriceforprivateplacementof270mnseries2preferredsharesatPHP75pershareVEDLNMediareportedthatVedantaResourceschairmanaimsforzerodebtinmediumtermintalkswithbanksincludingforUSD1bnloanwithinterestratebetween8and10MoodysdowngradeditsCFRtoCaa1andplacednegativeoutlookYLLGSPMoodysaffirmedYanlordBa2Ba3ratingandchangedoutlooktonegativeCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreport513Mar2023ImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritie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