研究报告全文：MN15Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePAGoodDoctor1833HKTemporarypainsinstrategictransitionTargetPriceHK2424Better-than-expectednarrowingofnetlossin2022PAGoodDoctorPreviousTPHK2815PAGDreported2022revenueofRMB6160mndownby16YoYandUpDownside327adjustednon-IFRSnetlossofRMB848mnnarrowedby40YoYPAGDsCurrentPriceHK1826revenueslightlymissedourforecastconsensusby2845respectivelywhileadjustednon-IFRSnetlossbeatourforecastconsensusby124ChinaHealthcare203respectivelythankstothecontinuousmarginimprovementsandcostJillWUCFAsavingsunderitsStrategy20ContinuumIn2022grossprofitmarginGPM85239000842increasedby41pptsmainlysupportedbytheGPMimprovementof42pptsjillwucmbicomhkfromitshealthservicesegmentSellingandmarketingexpenseratiodroppedby60pptsin2022duetotheinherentcostsavingsandeconomiesofscaleBenchenHUANGCFAhuangbenchencmbicomhkfromprovidinghealthmanagementservicestocorporateclientsEncouragingbusinessdevelopmentsin2022PAGDsStrategy20StockDataContinuumhaddeliveredpositiveresultsin2022despitebusinessMktCapHKmn197366Avg3mthstoHKmn209interruptioncausedbyCOVIDlockdownsThecumulativenumberof52wHighLowHK31651370corporateclientsservedbyPAGDreached978asofDec2022vs520asTotalIssuedSharesmn10809ofDec2021andcovered3mnpaidemployeeswithinthosecorporateSourceFactSetclientsvsmorethan1mnasofDec2021indicatinganincreasingShareholdingStructureacceptanceofPAGDshealthmanagementservicesamongcorporatePingAnInsurance394clientsandtheiremployeesNotedthatthenumberofcorporateclientsandSoundaProperties94theirpaidemployeesforPAGDsservicesrepresentedonly3and20SourceHKExofthetotalnumberofcorporatesandtheiremployeeswithinPAGroupsSharePerformancebusinessecosystemleavingampleroomforfurtherbusinessexpansionforAbsoluteRelativePAGDWiththeliftofCOVID-relatedtravelrestrictionsinChinaweexpect1-mth-8306PAGDsoff-linecorporatecustomeracquisitionstofullyresumetoitsnormal3-mth-291-275pacein2023andbeyond6-mth-92-110SourceFactSetMarginimprovementstocontinueunderStrategy20ContinuumGPM12-mthPricePerformanceincreasedto274in2022from233in2021duetoPAGDsproactivereductioninthelow-marginonlinemallbusinessBesidessellingmarketingexpenseratiodeclinedto179in2022from240in2021drivenbytheinherentcostsavingsandeconomiesofscalefromprovidinghealthmanagementservicesforcorporateclientsWeanticipatesimilartrendsinGPMandsellingmarketingexpenseratioin2023andthereaftercontributingtothenarrowingofadjustednon-IFRSnetlossSourceFactSetMaintainBUYWecutourTPfromHK2815toHK2424basedona10-yearDCFmodelWACC111terminalgrowthrate30toreflectourloweredearningsforecastsGoingforwardweexpectPAGDtoregainpositiverevenuegrowthof124135144YoYin2023E24E25Econsideringthepost-pandemicbusinessresumptionandthegrowingpenetrationrateofPAGDsmedicalservicesinChinahealthcareindustryAccordinglyweforecastPAGDsadjustednetlosstobesequentiallynarrowedtoRMB702mnRMB288mnRMB40mnin2023E24E25EEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn73346160692278598989YoYgrowth68160124135144NetprofitRMBmn1538608782379142AdjustednetprofitRMBmn141784870228840EPSAdjustedRMB129078063026004ConsensusEPSRMBnana062031014PSx2428252219Netgearing209267228212210SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk15Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue69227859898978189372na-1146-1615naGrossProfit19972385282723832976na-1620-1987naOperatingProfit-872-467-239-789-313nanmnmnaAdjustednetprofit-702-288-40-645-137nanmnmnaAdjustedEPSRMB-063-026-004-058-012nanmnmnaGrossMargin28843034314530483175na-163ppt-141pptnaOperatingMargin-1259-594-266-1009-334na-251ppt-260pptnaAdjustednetMargin-1014-366-044-826-146na-188ppt-220pptnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue692278598989730385499209-522-807-239GrossProfit199723852827209625672892-473-710-224OperatingProfit-872-467-239-871-490-146nmnmnmAdjustednetprofit-702-288-40-715-33295nmnmnmAdjustedEPSRMB-063-026-004-062-031014nmnmnmGrossMargin288430343145287030023140015ppt032ppt005pptOperatingMargin-1259-594-266-1193-573-159-066ppt-021ppt-107pptAdjustednetMargin-1014-366-044-980-389104-034ppt023ppt-148pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Valuationonrisk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032EEBIT912507279134270516934159825723884Taxrate00000000000000000000EBIT1-taxrate912507279134270516934159825723884DA3334343461104166249349454-Changeinworkingcapital3828373767113181272380495-Capex34343434343434343434FCFF95053631697230472885154125063809Terminalvalue48584Terminalgrowthrate30WACC111CostofEquity140CostofDebt50EquityBeta10RiskFreeRate30MarketRiskPremium110TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150TerminalvalueRMBmn16995TotalPVRMBmn19322NetdebtRMBmn3725MinorityinterestRMBmn6EquityvalueRMBmn23052ofsharesmn1119PricepershareRMBpershare2060PricepershareHKpershare2424SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE215Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue686673346160692278598989Costofgoodssold500256274475492654746162Grossprofit186417071685199723852827Operatingexpenses278433502383286828513065Sellingexpense158717571105117310961164Adminexpense101718461748189519562102Others180253471200200200Operatingprofit9191643698872467239ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV1223966404040NetInterestincomeexpense100159156125126136Pre-taxprofit9411524608787381143Incometax7163000Aftertaxprofit9491539611787381143Minorityinterest014521Netprofit9481538608782379142Adjustednetprofit516141784870228840BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets152561275712464124571297013786Cashequivalents792030653701351037444217Accountreceivables105815541510153217221955Inventories160398246322354394FinancialassetsatFVTPL356649375090509050905090Othercurrentassets255128031917200320602131Non-currentassets330751244678462945804531PPE166140111112113114InvestmentinJVsassos451546357317277237Intangibles10210675655545Goodwill9709701678167816781678Othernon-currentassets161733622458245824582458Totalassets185631788117142170861755018316Currentliabilities266836743483412948805686Short-termborrowings00050010001500Accountpayables186326412349249527463052Othercurrentliabilities80510331133113311331133Non-currentliabilities39121201201201201Obligationsunderfinanceleases39121103103103103Othernon-currentliabilities0097979797Totalliabilities270737953684432950815886Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus206522044020424204242042420424Retainedearnings481963576964766279477986Totalshareholdersequity158331408313460127621247712438Minorityinterest2321689Totalequityandliabilities185631788117142170861755018316PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE315Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation9491539611787381143Depreciationamortization170207190333434Changeinworkingcapital71614550382837Others393216439101817Netcashfromoperations11021403811781358129InvestingCapitalexpenditure738934343434Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments02626000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term2152123787000investmentsOthers27217732284135136146Netcashfrominvesting249731001710100101112FinancingNetborrowings000500500500Proceedsfromshareissues686900000Sharerepurchases0368226000Others534892101010Netcashfromfinancing6922320318490490490NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear496579203065370135103744Exchangedifference3683254000Cashattheendoftheyear792030653701351037444217GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue35568160124135144Grossprofit5928513185194185PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin272233273288303314Operatingmargin1342241131265927Adjnetprofitmargin751931381013704ReturnonequityROE7410344603011GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx050203020202Currentratiox573536302724Receivableturnoverdays454650908908908908Inventoryturnoverdays86181263263263263Payableturnoverdays132814612035203520352035VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPB564814141414SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE415Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5