根据Broker和CFETS数据源,成交高于估值个券中,“22云能投MTN007”与“21昆明新都PPN002”债券估值价格偏离幅度较大。低估值成交个券中,“20随州城建MTN001”估值价格偏离程度最大。卖价高于估值个券中,“21凤城河PPN001”估值价格偏离幅度最大。估值收益率高于8%的个券中,地产债排名靠前。
城投债个券流动性评分最小值和均值有所上升。产业债个券流动性评分最小值和均值有所上升。成交估值偏离主要分布在[-5,0)区间。高估值信用债成交笔数占比有所下降,高估值AA城投债及地产债成交笔数占比有所上升。分行业看,综合行业净价偏离幅度最大。信用债平均成交期限下降,其中城投债的成交期限有所下降,产业债的成交期限保持不变。AA城投债剩余期限均值环比下降幅度最大。永续债成交笔数下降。 风险提示:统计出现遗漏,高估值个券出现信用风险。 研究报告全文:证券研究报告固定收益研究2023年3月10日3月10日信用债异常成交跟踪信用市场日度跟踪2023-03-10摘要根据Broker和CFETS数据源成交高于估值个券中22云能投MTN007与21昆明新都PPN002债券估值价格偏离幅度较大低估值成交个券中20随州城建MTN001估值价格偏离程度最大卖价高于估值个券中21凤城河PPN001估值价格偏离幅度最大估值收益率高于8的个券中地产债排名靠前城投债个券流动性评分最小值和均值有所上升产业债个券流动性评分最小值和均值有所上升成交估值偏离主要分布在-50区间高估值信用债成交笔数占比有所下降高估值AA城投债及地产债成交笔数占比有所上升分行业看综合行业净价偏离幅度最大信用债平均成交期限下降其中城投债的成交期限有所下降产业债的成交期限保持不变AA城投债剩余期限均值环比下降幅度最大永续债成交笔数下降风险提示统计出现遗漏高估值个券出现信用风险尹睿哲S1090518110001yinruizhecmschinacomcn李豫泽S1090518080001liyuzecmschinacomcn敬请阅读末页的重要说明固定收益研究表1成交高于估值个券Broker数据源成交高于估值个券Broker数据源主体流剩余期限估值价格偏成交净价估值收益率成交收益估值收益评级主当日成简称行业动性评年离元偏离bp率率体债项交笔数分22云能投MTN007161Y-05398763591580544AAA综合S97782G21汴投1259D-023100313024510480AA城投D2041120潍坊03146D2Y-02199734979480430AAAAAA城投B8001120大连城乡MTN001129D-01699844453540495AAAA城投D4530122高安01233Y-0139785584519513AAAAA城投C5847123豫资01298Y-01210013379345341AAA城投C5847219宜昌城控MTN003109Y-00810207612302296AAAA城投A9244421涪陵07137Y2Y-00810041493380375AA城投A9397123成都香城CP001342D-00810022909370361A-城投C5160122徐州新盛MTN001182Y-0079998414316312AAA城投A9490420湖城03273D2Y-00710097583309303AA城投A9368121成高01117Y2Y-00610064424302298AAAAA城投C6319222株发03256Y2Y-0069902211438436AAAA城投A9380121德财01102Y2Y-00610059393403399A-城投B8367123豫水利MTN001297Y-0069991196333331AAA城投B8429123即墨城投PPN001354D-00510154304380377A城投A8774120南京空港MTN002178D-00410047684295288AAAAA城投C6596121赣州发展MTN002197Y365D-00410186178340338AAAAAA城投S9586118江岸国资MTN001157D-00410113279289286AAAA城投C5847118福建漳州MTN0016D-00410003443250246AAAA城投S9526122漳州交通MTN005463Y-0049762107402401A城投A8677122孝感02261Y2Y-0049734160500498AA城投A9133122吉利MTN001205Y-0049892231386384AA汽车A9264222南新01188Y2Y-00410029120462461AA城投A9233221粤能源MTN001150Y-00410025233292290AAA-公用事业B7651120浦建01196Y-00310021129316315AAAA城投C6008122江公01209Y-0039989126344343AAAA城投C6962118浙能源MTN0014D-003100011048230220AAAAAA城投S9636121滁州城投MTN001105Y2Y-00310092215302300AAAA城投S9636523华润置地SCP001126D-0039978600280274AA房地产A9164318电投13255D-00310093035277277AAAAAA公用事业S9974122国投K1221Y-0039938114304303AAA综合A9390113中电投134D-00310085043268268AAAAAA公用事业S9974120招商蛇口MTN002B245Y-00310205070300299AAAAAA房地产A9462122盐城城资PPN002188Y-0029967144398397AAA城投A9198218浙能源MTN003188D-00210095048272272AAAAAA城投S9636120新密0137D-002100021489580565AA城投D2136122湘建工SCP001科创票据129D-0029965926318309AA城投B7775121商资03279D5Y-00210004050490490AAAA城投A9145121淮南矿MTN001315D-00210117045290290AAAAAA煤炭A94931资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明2固定收益研究表2成交高于估值个券CFETS数据源成交高于估值个券CFETS数据源主体流剩余期限估值价格偏成交净价估值收益率成交收益估值收益评级主当日成简称票息行业动性评年离元偏离bp率率体债项交笔数分21昆明新都PPN002231D-3499573584161321737620AA城投D4111223宝城投MTN001199Y365D-19998107901794715720AAAAA城投B7338622自贡国资MTN001214Y2Y-15097852797691663630AAAA城投B7190523大足发展CP001362D-148986016154801640649AAA-1城投C5293823宿州城投MTN001284Y-136101195272503451550A城投A9331123青岛城阳MTN001294Y-131100014921495445495A城投D4246222伊宁国资MTN002176Y365D-11399405917773714750AAAA城投C5047121河钢集MTN007174Y-11299306814452384410AAAAAA钢铁S9909119城陵矶MTN001114Y-107100339963630530663AAAA城投D4169122益阳城投PPN002110Y365D-10699226838640572600AA城投D4532219磁湖高新MTN002180Y-08999085368654600600AAAA城投B7815222益阳城投PPN001105Y365D-08899516622635569610AA城投D4532116雅安MTN002293D-0869670115891038923606AAAA城投D4626222巢湖城镇PPN001199Y2Y-0839835186466464420A-城投B8489222建德国资MTN001276Y-08199983197480448480A-城投A8584121濮阳开州债02552Y-07799662587708683699AAAAA城投D3366323昆交投PPN002196Y-074100104221754711760AAA城投C5548823长发集团SCP001266D-071994810175554452480AAA城投A8839123中原发展PPN001199Y365D-070100003805492454492AA城投C5097223新郑投资MTN002197Y3Y-069100104108556514558A城投A9450121通泰PPN001155Y-06797704790910862750A城投C5430122新海连MTN008244Y-06796552967523494370AA城投A9459421远洋控股PPN001317D-06784501074826382530460AAA房地产C5341522泰达投资SCP011168D-0659754158291148990590AAA城投C5585123长寿开投PPN001309D4Y-0649918823670661650AA城投B7963220龙南建投债01456Y-06199422756723696700AA-AAA城投D2702620会昌停车NPB472Y-061101152564649624700AA-AAA城投0620宜春创投绿色债452Y-061103732689532505700AAAA城投A8564722云能投MTN007161Y-05398763591580544499AAA综合S9778123武清国资CP001350D-05099215613814758728AA城投A8624821南太湖PPN001142Y-050100093700516479525AAAA城投C6997223驻马店投MTN001199Y365D-049100002667518491518A城投A9087422豫航空港PPN001163Y-04997663282654621500AAA城投S9867219淄博城运PPN002177Y-04899242898515486470AAA城投A8752423沧州交通PPN001乡村振兴185Y365D-046100593802477439500AA城投B7023323延安城投PPN001364D-046100004883650601650AA城投B70831018蚌埠投资PPN002263D-046100656419595531700AA城投B7839217淄博资运MTN002162Y-045100952948480451544AAAA城投A8752421如皋城发PPN001156Y-045100493010445415480AA城投C5015323玄武高新MTN001349D2Y-04299903902356317352A-城投B84352资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明3固定收益研究表3成交低于估值个券成交低于估值个券剩余期限估值价格偏成交净价估值收益率成交收益率估值收益率评级主主体流动当日成简称票息行业年离元偏离bp体债项性评分交笔数20随州城建MTN00120D2Y10410110-214530-1782364479AAAA城投A8757122海恒01201Y2Y0689905-3569405441355A城投D4696123萧山经开债499Y2Y0509984-1256371384367AAAAA城投A8657223常城建MTN001496Y03110111-711365372390AAA城投S9761222宣控04256Y0269770-1074414425318AA城投B8222122科城K2178Y02510299-1659410427590AA城投A8686122宣控03234Y0229869-1010407417348AA城投B8222122兴泸04465Y2Y0219802-518396401349AA城投A9140320长春轨交MTN003B210Y0219993-1061513524510AAAA城投B7536120华发02196Y0209998-1195530542530AAAAAA房地产A8703122江津02235Y2Y0209757-886465474354AA城投A8728120陕煤一402Y8Y01810153-516352357394AAAAAA煤炭S9916121特房03121Y2Y01710099-1623330346418AAAA城投C5847121铁建房产MTN001358D2Y01510110-1567300316417AAAAAA房地产A9333121宣州国资PPN001乡村振兴149Y01510018-1075414425428AA城投C6372119中铁03102Y01410005-1561360376366AAA房地产A9333122高教投资PPN003267Y0149669-525485490350AA城投D4652122赣州城投PPN001187Y2Y0149976-786388396375AA城投S9699219嵊州02135Y0139968-1080378389355AA城投A8856122赣城02273Y2Y01210110-563435441480AAAAA城投S9699122朝阳国资MTN001253Y0129872-491323328270AAAAAA城投S9630123亦庄投资MTN001科创票据299Y0129992-438327331324AA-城投A9063321桂投资MTN002128Y01210163-1088363374498AAAAAA城投S9616122HDGJ02252Y0129893-512302307258AAA公用事业S9860122中山火炬PPN001196Y0129864-586431437357AA城投D4231122漳九01186Y2Y0119958-658331338308AAAAAA城投S9701119邯纾01161Y01110098-871475484543AAAA城投B70771G21长建2182Y2Y01110093-729424431480AAAA城投A8827221肇庆国联MTN002117Y2Y01110086-991309319386AAAA城投B8163122太原国投MTN001207Y2Y01010019-519337342347AA城投A9459123洛建03196Y01010151-686495502579A城投A9357221之江02133Y2Y01010033-868340349368AA城投B8223322宜春交通MTN001202Y01010029-519345350360AAAA城投A9032120风电04202Y00910076-550300306340AAAAAA公用事业A9187121恒健V1338Y00910042-326321324335AAAAAA城投S9783123淮安经开CP001343D00910045-1091430441482AA城投C6817123合川城投SCP001260D00910022-1058396407429AA城投B8160122晋能煤业PPN006360D365D00910080-1046325335410AAA煤炭S9922121南通高新MTN002164Y00910077-594320326370A城投A9413120首开MTN00248D2Y0099995-6118300361270AAAAAA城投S96981资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明4固定收益研究表4卖价高于估值个券卖价高于估值个券剩余期限估值价格偏抛售净价估值收益率卖价收益率评级主体主体流动性评简称票息行业年离元偏离bp债项分21凤城河PPN001147Y-9613381740372974436420A城投A887819苏电05110D-884058825950078290492730A商贸零售D184623今世缘MTN001296Y-836210000070400400AA食品饮料B848822吴中城投MTN001195Y-665733128003688342310A城投A927321GLP07112Y2Y-476996706687756440AAAAAA交通运输D382823苏州生态PPN001359D-4769100002012358358AAA-1城投B743421GLP03364D-44639396423921110437AAAAAA交通运输D382821GLP01321D-427996987645760398AAAAAA交通运输D382818瑞专债01186D5Y-34851005623018519648AAAA城投B735820融侨01104D2Y-25712900277440275929650AAAA房地产D2075赣水投1A1755Y-122498456367410305AAAAAA城投A897820渝旅债51D2Y-1164100012418368394AAAAA城投C637821梁溪经发PPN00150D1Y-1151100049138413460AA城投B755321赣建0335D1Y-8311000414599569670AAAA城投A884822鲁商SCP01336D-79799964283610580AA商贸零售D364220荆州海投债34D4Y-795999721230629630AAAA城投D354822光明MTN001212Y-762921040117700286AA食品饮料S980122济南城投MTN001A项目收益434Y-722919619119556343AAAAAA城投S9683崇安寺A1731Y-6779744830396325AAAAA城投B755323滨投01198Y365D-6708773406341400650AA城投D237222中节江西ABN001优先1434Y-624769456383环保D069华发RH1A1734Y-5699318942603539AAAAAA房地产A870320盐投0124D2Y-5611000315102544645AAAA城投A869021华瑞优1663Y-5429916405514460AAA城投S982920高密04178Y365D-5198282364381900680AA城投D170221金牛环境MTN002114Y2Y-514959749232800417AA城投A940121工投03181Y2Y-4619337297051200776A-城投D209720随州城建MTN00120D2Y-456999518311547479AAAA城投A875720滨城01223Y-3679263330581300650AAAA城投D237221潍滨02152Y-3589246273011300730AA城投D179522黔水01236Y2Y-3248882164581272700AA城投D126323先行控股SCP001204D-313972160130900381AA城投S971822新发01415Y-31196478410475380AAA城投S964321西安建工MTN001144Y-2999060242291300550AAAA建筑装饰D4012九江2优B1913Y-2939624968423375AAAA城投B763119昆租02150Y2Y-2469326186631150645AAAA城投C514220西苑0217D2Y-245999122744710580AAAAA城投D276822咸金06179Y2Y-230983314207800700AA电子D467422登建01276Y4Y-19398487861710650AAAAA城投D188422东营02278Y2Y-192101217599570620AA城投D3688资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明5固定收益研究表5估值收益率高于8以上的个券估值收益率高于8以上的个券剩余期限估值价格偏成交净价估值收益率成交收益评级主体主体流动简称票息行业年离元偏离bp率债项性评分21旭辉02137Y2Y-6643500-6799034511420AAAAAA房地产C539221融信03118D3Y-5422800-59219036225650AAAAAA房地产D252221GLP03364D-5309250599931286437AAAAAA交通运输D382820旭辉0180D2Y-5124483-43067285030380AAAAAA房地产C539221GLP05104Y-4709300504781192440AAAAAA交通运输D382820旭辉02222Y-3663500299347006450AAAAAA房地产C539221昆明新都PPN002231D-3499573584161321620AA城投D411119津投08610Y-313792365871000530AAAAAA城投S993621旭辉01101Y2Y-2543710-12398794801440AAAAAA房地产C539215远洋03244Y-2226893117622289500AAAAAA房地产C534123大足发展CP001362D-148986016154801649AAA-1城投C529319碧地03255D-1468750246902567498AAAAAA房地产B791416腾越02225D-1198800247492669450AAAAA房地产C511721碧地03188D2Y-0899050-139281867433AAAAAA房地产B791416雅安MTN002293D-0869670115891038606AAAA城投D462623武清国资SCP002254D-069994510720831750AA城投A862419昆租02150Y2Y-0689500-15148812645AAAA城投C514221通泰PPN001155Y-06797704790910750A城投C543021远洋控股PPN001317D-0678450107482638460AAA房地产C534122津城建CP028225D-065975611691850449AAA城投S993622泰达投资SCP011168D-0659754158291148590AAA城投C558520兴安债428Y-064905034781327800AAAA城投D315621旭辉03188D2Y-0614000-23187605130390AAAAAA房地产C539222大连万达MTN002166Y365D-0549550-7112874680AAAAAA房地产B760623武清国资CP001350D-05099215613814728AA城投A862420碧地04238D2Y-0408899-135232898415AAAAAA房地产B791419远洋01103Y-039840050962498550AAAAAA房地产C534121碧地02127Y2Y-0378110-1114481212480AAAAAA房地产B791420柳发01233D2Y-0249650-36517819670AAAA城投D456323泰达投资SCP002218D-022982252601004695AAA城投C558522建湖城投PPN003113Y-02199082040835750AA城投C533017昆投02222D-016965326521134550AAAA城投C696223泰达投资SCP004156D-007986831341020698AAA城投C558523曲文投SCP001152D-00798811896872580AA城投C545223惠民城建PPN001194Y365D-0059390-11285946700AA城投C554520银川通联MTN00173D-00499052656810350AAAA城投B744522西宁城投SCP00238D-003993845431082515AA城投C536616金地02103Y-0039490390887350AAAAAA房地产C551919北辰科技MTN002158Y-00295341941079750AAAA城投C5058娄底万宝19PPN001128Y-0019842126881750AA城投D3619资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明6固定收益研究图1个券流动性评分最小值图2个券流动性评分均值个券流动性评分均值MA5个券流动性评分最小值MA5以当日成交信用债为样本以当日成交信用债为样本城投-ave产业-ave城投-min产业-min45944092353090258820158610845082221422312242022610227292291922111022122923224221422312242022610227292291922111022122923224资料来源qeubee招商证券资料来源qeubee招商证券图3当日信用债成交估值偏离分布城投产业当日信用债成交估值偏离分布城投产业城投债成交笔数产业债成交笔数250200150100500-20-20-15-15-10-10-5-500200551010151520资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明7固定收益研究图4高估值信用债成交笔数及其占当日信用债成交总笔数比例的时间序列图高估值信用债成交笔数及其占当日信用债成交总笔数比例的时间序列图城投债高估值成交笔数产业债高估值成交笔数占当日信用债成交总笔数比例MA5右轴600403550030400成交笔数25高估值占比300201520010100500221422215223222242622622278228122291922102722121231623217资料来源qeubee招商证券图5高估值AA城投债及地产债成交笔数及其占当日信用债成交总笔数比例的时间序列图高估值AA城投债及地产债成交笔数及其占当日信用债成交总笔数比例的时间序列图AA城投债高估值成交笔数地产债高估值成交笔数非城投占当日信用债成交总笔数比例MA5右轴704603503高估值占比成交笔数40230220110100221422215223222242622622278228122291922102722121231623217资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明8固定收益研究图6各行业产业债成交偏离价均值及成交笔数各行业产业债成交偏离价均值及成交笔数净价偏离-ave右轴成交笔数左轴300062500420002150001000250040综合电子汽车钢铁机械设备家用电器基础化工通信建筑装饰商贸零售传媒有色金属食品饮料石油石化公用事业建筑材料交通运输农林牧渔社会服务电力设备煤炭房地产006资料来源qeubee招商证券图7信用债成交期限变化信用债成交期限变化MA5信用债总加权剩余期限年城投债加权剩余期限年产业债加权剩余期限年302520151005221422215223222242622622278228122291922102722121231623217资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明9固定收益研究图8分等级信用债剩余期限均值环比变化时间序列图分等级信用债剩余期限均值环比变化时间序列图MA5AAA城投年AA城投年AA城投年AAA产业年AA产业年AA产业年15100500051015221422215223222242622622278228122291922102722121231623217资料来源qeubee招商证券图9永续债成交总笔数及高估值成交情况永续债成交总笔数及高估值成交情况AAA城投高估值成交笔数AA城投高估值成交笔数AAA产业高估值成交笔数AA产业高估值成交笔数永续债成交总笔数MA511010090807060504030201002214222152232322428226822713228172292222113221282311323224资料来源qeubee招商证券敬请阅读末页的重要说明10固定收益研究分析师承诺负责本研究报告的每一位证券分析师在此申明本报告清晰准确地反映了分析师本人的研究观点本人薪酬的任何部分过去不曾与现在不与未来也将不会与本报告中的具体推荐或观点直接或间接相关尹睿哲中国人民大学金融学博士研究生IMI国际货币研究所研究员2018年加入招商证券现任招商证券研发中心首席债券分析师李豫泽同济大学产业经济学硕士2017年加入招商证券现任招商证券研发中心债券分析师曾为新财富水晶球金牛奖固收团队成员招商证券债券信用评分符号和定义等级符号定义A3偿债主体还债务的能力极强基本不受不利经济环境的影响信用风险极低投资A2偿债主体偿还债务的能力很强受不利经济环境的影响较小信用风险很低档A1偿债主体偿还债务的能力较强较易受不利经济环境的影响信用风险较低B3偿债主体偿还债务的能力一般受不利经济环境影响较大信用风险一般B2偿债主体偿还债务的能力较弱受不利经济环境影响很大有较高信用风险投B1偿债主体偿还债务的能力较大地依赖于良好的经济环境信用风险很高机档C3偿债主体偿还债务的能力极度依赖于良好的经济环境信用风险极高C2偿债主体在破产或重组时可获得保护较小基本不能保证偿还债务C1偿债主体不能偿还债务注债项符号含义与主体符号含义一致重要声明本报告由招商证券股份有限公司以下简称本公司编制本公司具有中国证监会许可的证券投资咨询业务资格本报告基于合法取得的信息但本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证本报告所包含的分析基于各种假设不同假设可能导致分析结果出现重大不同报告中的内容和意见仅供参考并不构成对所述证券买卖的出价在任何情况下本报告中的信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议除法律或规则规定必须承担的责任外本公司及其雇员不对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失负任何责任本公司或关联机构可能会持有报告中所提到的公司所发行的证券头寸并进行交易还可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行业务服务客户应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突本报告版权归本公司所有本公司保留所有权利未经本公司事先书面许可任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版复制引用或转载否则本公司将保留随时追究其法律责任的权利敬请阅读末页的重要说明11
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