【市场回顾】周三国债期货窄幅震荡，尾盘回落收跌。
　　【资金市场】:公开市场共有1070亿逆回购到期，央行开展40亿7天逆回购，当日净回笼资金1030亿元。隔夜加权利率继续上行，但绝对水平依旧偏低，且交易所资金价格相对稳定，流动性整体保持充裕水平。
　　【行情研判!:隔夜美联储主席鲍威尔国会证词表示“将进一步加息以实现2%通胀目标，最终利率水平可能高于上次会议时的预期，如有必要将加快加息步伐。"发言公布后3月FED会议加息5Obp概率来到7O%以上，"硬着陆"预期下，美债收益率大幅上行，2年期美债收益率上行至5%以上，与10年期利率倒挂幅度超过10Obp，美元指数强势上涨。外部流动性紧缩预期深化，将一定程度上影响国内的出口预期，同时制约货币政策空间。短期内，由于大会仍在进行时，市场尚在寻找主线的过程中，午后A股*数字经济'概念板块带动指数上行，债市同步回落，股债跷跷板效应依旧明显。由情绪主导的预期变化在短时间内将债券价格推升到了阶段性高点，建议及时止盈。等待新的方向。
　　

研究报告全文：1070407103023FED50bp702510100bpATFTS100105100780100720-002-003-002505103807748595-9150-136919438164812987395568419215636合约走势150000000持仓变动10150101001000000001010010090500000001005010080000001000010070-50000000995010060990010050-100000000-1500000002023021420230215202302162023021720230218202302192023022020230221202302222023022320230224202302252023022620230227202302282023030120230302202303032023030420230305202303062023030720230308TFTTSRHS20230213TSTFT1000000000主力合约成交量主力合约持仓量200000000060000000080000000016000000005000000006000000004000000001200000000400000000300000000800000000200000000200000000400000000000001000000000000000000TSTFTTFTTSRHS2年期活跃券基差1020TS-TF跨品种价差1010040060100803510150500301006025040101010040200301005015100201002010001000220028200005RHS价差右元TS2306CFETF2306CFE5年期活跃券基差2TS-T跨品种价差1212101030351111101010053030090910003025080807079953020060699030150505230002220022RHS价差右元TS2306CFET2306CFE162010年期活跃券基差2TF-T跨品种价差151020102418141015102210201316101012101810051114101610001010141209995101208109901010220017220025RHS价差右元T2306CFETF2306CFE22742550270128442873-098004-159-099-0991Y3Y5Y7Y右10Y右曲线形态27298300525288002523-0527821-102682019-151725815-201Y3Y5Y7Y10Ybp右2023-03-072023-03-06中美利差bpbp美债10-2利差5003000040020000200001500030010000100002000005000100-10000000000-20000-5000-10000-15000中美利差RHS美债10Y国债10YDR001142319552747046-25457DR007188257093121-11051DR01420431145246082390R00115221932644129343775R007206920655394-43226R01422525368846412bp银存间资金价格走势资金日变动353030002920002320171000110000510-100000-2000DR001DR007DR014DR021DR1MDR2MDR3MDR001DR007DR014bp右2023-03-072023-03-06千元bp质押式回购成交量资金分层120000000000000750010000000000000055008000000000000035006000000000000015004000000000000020000000000000-50000000-25002022-12-052023-01-052023-02-052023-03-05DR001R001隔夜七天