我们维持1.02港元的目标价，并维持公司“收集”的投资评级。我们预测2023-2025财年的每股盈利为人民币0.053/ 0.063/ 0.075元。考虑到快速发展的“两翼”业务，我们维持“收集”的投资评级。
　　中国铁塔2022财年业绩符合我们的预期。收入同比增长6.5%而股东净利润同比增长19.9%。根据新的服务协议，现有订单的折扣和新订单的共享折扣率上升，将对铁塔业务的收入产生负面影响；我们预计2023年塔类业务收入将录得同比小幅下滑。但由于5G网络扩张稳定，我们预计该业务将在2024年及之后恢复小幅同比增长。
　　我们预计“两翼”业务的增速有望超出市场预期。目前，铁塔智联业务的站址数仅占塔类站址数的一小部分，在数字中国规划等政策的支持和垂直行业巨大的市场需求下，我们预计智联业务将进一步扩展到更多领域和更深度的业务合作。此外，智联业务将继续从单纯提供站址资源向提供综合信息服务转型，将通信塔、通信机房升级为数字塔、数字机房，持续提升单站价值。旗下能源公司目前入选国资委双碳改革企业，有望在双碳目标背景下，立足自身优势，继续巩固在换电市场的龙头地位，同时发挥属地化优势拓展备电业务。
　　催化剂：派息率的上升；“两翼”业务增速快于市场预期。
　　风险提示：“两翼”业务增速慢于预期；5G建设慢于预期。

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitleGinYu余劲同CompanyReportChinaTower00788HK究8675523976686EquityResearch公司报告中国铁塔00788HKginyugtjascomhk3March2023ResultsTableSummaryinLineWithOurExpectationsOutstandingTwoWingsBusinessAccumulate业绩符合我们预期两翼业务表现亮眼收集公WemaintainTPatHK102andmaintaintheCompanysinvestmentrating司asAccumulateWeforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB0053RMB0063RatingTableRankAccumulateRMB0075respectivelyConsideringthefast-growingTwoWingsbusinessweMaintained报maintaintheinvestmentratingasAccumulate告ChinaTowersFY22resultswereinlinewithourexpectationsRevenue评级收集维持increasedby65yoyandshareholdersnetprofitincreasedby199yoyDueCompanyReporttodiscountsonexistingordersandrisingco-locationdiscountrateonnewordersaccordingtothenewserviceagreementsrevenueoftowerbusinesswillbe6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK102negativelyaffectedweexpecttowerbusinessrevenuetorecordaslightyoyHK102declinein2023Butduetostable5GnetworkexpansionweexpectbusinesstoShareprice股价HK0900recoverslightyoygrowthin2024andthereafter告WeexpectthegrowthrateofTwoWingsbusinesstoexceedmarketexpectationsCurrentlythenumberofsitesutilizedinsmarttowerbusiness证Stockperformance报onlyaccountedforasmallportionofthetotalnumberoftowersitesgiventhe股价表现券supportfromdigitaldevelopmentpoliciesandhugemarketdemandfromvertical究TableQuotePic300industriesweexpectsmarttowerbusinesstofurtherexpandtomoreareasand研ofreturngreaterdepthofbusinesscooperationInadditionsmarttowerbusinesswill研200究continuetotransformfromsimplyprovidingsiteresourcestoproviding100券comprehensiveinformationservicesupgradingcommunicationtowersand报communicationequipmentroomstodigitaltowersanddigitalequipmentrooms00证whichwillcontinuetoimprovevaluepersiteItsenergycompanyiscurrently告100EquityResearchReportlistedintheSASACdouble-carbonreformenterpriselistUnderthebackgroundofthedouble-carbontargetbasedonitsownadvantagesitisexpectedto200continuetoconsolidateitsleadingpositioninthebatteryexchangemarketand300meanwhileexpandthepowerbackupbusinessbasedonlocalizationTabadvantages400Mar-22Jun-22Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23CatalystRisingdividendpayoutratiofaster-than-expectedgrowthofTwoleIHSIIndexChinaTowerWingsbusinessnfo1告RiskwarningSlower-than-expectedgrowthofTwoWingsbusinessslower-than-expected5GconstructionTablePriceChange报ChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y我们维持102港元的目标价并维持公司收集的投资评级我们预测2023-2025财年的通股价变动1个月3个月1年究每股盈利为人民币005300630075元考虑到快速发展的两翼业务我们维持收集Abs-2298-22信的投资评级绝对变动研ReltoHSIndex中国铁塔财年业绩符合我们的预期收入同比增长而股东净利润同比增长28-0462行202265199相对恒指变动根据新的服务协议现有订单的折扣和新订单的共享折扣率上升将对铁塔业务的收入产生负AvgSharepriceHK业券089087089平均股价港元面影响我们预计2023年塔类业务收入将录得同比小幅下滑但由于5G网络扩张稳定我SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternational证们预计该业务将在2024年及之后恢复小幅同比增长我们预计两翼业务的增速有望超出市场预期目前铁塔智联业务的站址数仅占塔类站址TelecommunicationsSectorTelecommunications数的一小部分在数字中国规划等政策的支持和垂直行业巨大的市场需求下我们预计智联业务将进一步扩展到更多领域和更深度的业务合作此外智联业务将继续从单纯提供站址资源向提供综合信息服务转型将通信塔通信机房升级为数字塔数字机房持续提升单站价值旗下能源公司目前入选国资委双碳改革企业有望在双碳目标背景下立足自身优势继续巩固在换电市场的龙头地位同时发挥属地化优势拓展备电业务Tab催化剂派息率的上升两翼业务增速快于市场预期风险提示两翼业务增速慢于预期5G建设慢于预期leIYTableearEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEnfo2年结Profit收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率告1231RMBmRMBmRMBxRMBxRMB2021A865857329004213517510830700263539报中2022A9217087870050190164110707003239462023F究96545929700536014711280700364648国2024F10257411056006318912411550700445755铁研2025F1082371315900751900011860000540064塔券Tower00788HKTowerSharesinissuem总股数m1760085Majorshareholder大股东ChinaMobileGroup279TableBaseDataMarketcapHKm市值HKm1584077Freefloat自由流通比率03证3monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数0001686678FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金181China52WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK10500700FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元12SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6TablePageHeaderChinaTower00788HKWereviseupTPatHK102andmaintainChinaTowerstheCompanyinvestmentratingasAccumulateWeforecastFY23-FY25EPStobeRMB0053RMB0063RMB0075respectivelyConsidering1rtheaMfastt-growinghgiRTwoeWingslbaTbusinesswemaintaintheinvestmentratingasAccumulateandTPatHK102OurTPcorrespondsto169x142x119xFY23-FY25PERTheEVEBITDAratiocorrespondingtoourTPis30x26x22xinFY23-FY25respectivelyChinaTowersFY22resultswereinlinewithourexpectationswithactualshareholdersnetprofitonly04lowerthanourpreviousforecastsInFY22duetotheslightincreaseintowerbusinessandtherapidgrowthofindoordistributedantennasystemDASbusinessandsmarttowerbusinessaswellasenergybusinesstheCompanystotaloperatingrevenue3March2023increasedby65yoytoRMB92170millionTheCompanysEBITDAdecreasedslightlyby03yoywhileEBITDAmargindecreasedby46pptyoyto682mainlyduetothesharpincreaseinrepairandmaintenancecostsInFY22shareholdersnetprofitincreasedby199yoytoRMB8787millionWeexpecttowerbusinesstobeaffectedbythenewdiscountrateintheshorttermandwillbestabilizeafterwardsThenewserviceframeworkagreementstookeffecton1January2023Accordingtotheagreementsa24discountwillbegiventothebasepriceofexistingordersandco-locationdiscountshavebeenrevisedupDuetodiscountsonexistingordersandrisingco-locationdiscountrateonnewordersrevenueoftowerbusinesswillbenegativelyaffectedweexpecttowerbusinessrevenuetorecordslightyoydeclinein2023Butduetostable5Gnetworkexpansionweexpectbusinesstorecoverslightyoygrowthin2024andthereafterDuetothestillstrongdeepcoveragerequirementinbuildings2raMtsubwayhgisRaswellelasbaThigh-speedrailtunnelsweexpectDASbusinesstostillmaintainstronggrowthin2023WeexpecttheTwoWingsbusinesstomaintainhigh-speedgrowthandgrowthtobehigherthanmarketexpectationRecentlytheStateCouncilrolledoutaplanfortheoveralllayoutofthecountrysdigitaldevelopmentwhichmentionedtosmooththecirculationofdataresourcesandpromotetheaggregationandutilizationofpublicdataaswellaspromotethedeepintegrationofdigitaltechnologyandtherealeconomyacceleratingtheinnovativeapplicationofdigitaltechnologyinkeyareassuchasagricultureindustryfinanceeducationmedicalcaretransportationandenergyAsanimportantproductionfactorinthedigitaleconomythedatafactorwaspromotedbypoliciesatpresentmoredetailedtechnologyimplementationisunderwayanddatacollectionisthefirststepforthedatafactorindustrychainRelyingonitsextensivesiteresourcesthroughoutthecountrytheCompanyisabletocollectalargeamountofreal-timedataCurrentlythenumberofsitesutilizedinsmarttowerbusinessonlyaccountedforasmallportionofthetotalnumberoftowersitesgiventhestrongsupportfrom00788HKgovernmentandhugemarketdemandfromverticalindustriesweexpectsmarttowerbusinesstofurtherexpandtomoreareasandgreaterdepthofbusinesscooperationthusmaintainingtherapidgrowthrateInadditionrelyingonmultipleadvantagessuchaslocationadvantagesofsiteresourcescomprehensivecapabilityinAIbigdataetcaswellasstrongnetworksecurity中国铁塔protectiontheCompanywillupgradecommunicationtowersandcommunicationequipmentroomstodigitaltowersanddigitalequipmentroomsandsmarttowerbusinesswillcontinuetotransformfromsimplyprovidingsiteresourcestoprovidingcomprehensiveinformationserviceswhichwillcontinuetoimprovethevaluepersiteTheCompanysenergycompanyisChinaTowercurrentlylistedintheSASACdouble-carbonreformenterpriselistUnderthebackgroundofthedouble-carbontargetbasedonitsownadvantagesitisexpectedtocontinuetoconsolidateitsleadingpositioninthetakeawayexpressbatteryexchangemarketandatthesametimeexpandthepowerbackupbusinessinkeyindustriesandgivefullplaytoitslocalizationadvantagesWeexpectthatrevenuefromsmarttowerbusinessandenergybusinesswillmaintainastronggrowthtrendinthefutureCatalystRisingdividendpayoutratiofaster-than-expectedgrowthofTwoWingsbusinessRiskwarningSlower-than-expectedgrowthofTwoWingsbusinessslower-than-expected5GconstructionReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of6TablePageHeaderChinaTower00788HKFigure-1Themulti-purposeuseofthetowersitesFigure-2Someapplication1srcenariosaMthofgsmartiRtowerelbaTbusiness3March2023SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalSourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternational2raMthgiRelbaT00788HK中国铁塔ChinaTowerReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of6TablePageHeaderChinaTower00788HKTable-1PeerscomparisonMarketCapPERPBR1raMROEthgDYiReEVEBITDAlbaTCompanyTickerCurrencyPriceHKDMil23F24F25F23F24F25F23F23F23FHKListedCompaniesChinaTowerCorpLtd-H00788HKHKD090015664814512288070707494327ChinaMobileLtd00941HKHKD6100013588578478910908091068223ChinaUnicomHongKongLtd00762HKHKD60801897088778660504055458113March2023ChinaTelecomCorpLtd-H00728HKHKD42306290701099783080707716337ZteCorp-H00763HKHKD2430016262110394191513na1532187ChinaCommunicationsServi-H00552HKHKD3450241725955550505na8663naHktTrustAndHktLtd-Ss06823HKHKD10460785261591531532222231387491PccwLtd00008HKHKD395030572637399940444324569661SimpleAverage173135187141412896348WeightedAverage1039294090908936932USListedCompaniesAmericanTowerCorpAMTUSUSD197530721999428380351189377202361331952raMthgiRelbaTCrownCastleIntlCorpCCIUSUSD129310439953341364382829210723449176SbaCommunicationsCorpSBACUSUSD25736021825743240834951495111113217SimpleAverage400384361741408616232196WeightedAverage40138036111721913124635192OtherMarketsIndusTowersLtdINDUSTOWINR170250437111648881211918983752CellnexTelecomSaCLNXSMINEUR34350202129nana22311717181402148TowerBersamaInfrastructureTBIGIJIDR211000024528266245na4239na15426122SaranaMenaraNusantaraPtTOWRIJIDR1030000269601371281073127na2403096SimpleAverage1891548062826181202410500788HKWeightedAverage18214016762120184011127OverallAverage25422445138603912339116中国铁塔OverallWeightedAverage22920471049835312639117SourceBloombergChinaTowerReportCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of6TablePageHeaderChinaTower00788HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheet1raMthgiRelbaTIncomeStatementBalanceSheetYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTowerbusiness7585777204767747805479430PPE221419209377196753182764168381DASbusiness434058277476903110246Constructioninprogress147091233911053105239982TSSAIbusiness61318904120541524118308Right-of-useassets3287731578322103285433511Others257235241247253Othernon-currentassets59102560267528983140TotalRevenue865859217096545102574108237TotalNon-currentAssets2749152558542426912290382150153March2023DA4998249532503515169952915Tradeotherreceivables3419442260434454615848707Repairsandmaintenance57967593800482308340CashCashEquivalents64715117152722792842642Employeebenefitsandexpenses687579408786953910174Othercurrentassets76792329244525682696Siteoperationandsupportexpenses51615857627568217252TotalCurrentAssets4834449706611637665494045Otheroperatingexpenses5736793691721036011257Totaloperatingexpenses7355078858825888664989937TotalAssets323259305560303853305693309060OperatingProfit1303513312139581592518300Shorttermborrowings3714225597204781843016587NetFinancecosts37232879209017331338Leaseliabilities69137127677164326111Othergains3031095329312303Accountspayable2526426646272542772828780Accruedexpensesotherpayables634255105771605462842raMthgiRelbaTProfitBeforeTax961511528121961450417264Othercurrentliabilities521278292306322IncomeTax22872741290034494105TotalCurrentLiabilities7618265158605655895058083ProfitAfterTax7328878792971105613159Non-controllingInterest10000Longtermborrowings4157231448305052897927530ShareholdersProfitLoss7329878792971105613159Leaseliabilities1567714947152461555115862BasicEPS00420050005300630075Othernon-currentliabilities474416301241193TotalNon-currentLiabilities5772346811460514477143585TotalLiabilities133905111969106616103721101668TableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementYearend31DecRMBm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FSharecapital176008176008176008176008176008Profitbeforetax961511528121961450417264Reserves1334617583212302596331384DA4998249532503515169952915TotalShareholdersEquity189354193591197238201971207392Netfinancecosts37232879209017331338MinorityInterest0000000788HKOthernon-cashitems103991195810061056TotalEquity189354193591197238201971207392Workingcapitalchange1259122245220971415Interestincomereceived22124102305559TableFinancialRatioFinancialRatios中国铁塔Taxpaid26192741290034494105CashfromOperatingActivities60503634556234563701676122021A2022A2023F2024F2025FEBITDAmargin728682666659658CAPEX3267525990273262821628872Operatingmargin151144145155169ChinaTowerOthers1160150161179180Netmargin859596108122CashfromInvestingActivities3151525840271652803728691ROA2228313643ROE3946485564Changeinborrowings352121669606335733292Netgearing3822681819607Changeincommercialpapers110000000Interestpaidforinterest-bearingliabilities27083003219220391897Paymentsofleaseliabilities99029933990798929888Others4294364686375049131CashfromFinancingActivities2756038970250262300824207NetChangesinCash14281354101551265714714CashatBegofYear5042647151171527227928FXchange10000CashatEndofYear64715117152722792842642SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalReportCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of6TablePageHeaderChinaTower00788HKCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to53March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearch00788HKReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearch中国铁塔ReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaTowerThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReservedReport27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanySeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of6