>> 国泰君安-机械行业双周报:工程机械行业有望复苏,科学仪器行业受政策支持-230301
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国泰君安 |
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自动化设备行业预期向好,工业机器人发展迅速。根据睿工业数据,2022年中国工业机器人销量超过28万台,同比增长10%。工业机器人的快速发展主要受益于新能源车、锂电、光伏、医疗等新兴行业需求拉动。我们认为工业自动化设备或将进入上行周期,我们看好机床行业、注塑机行业、压铸机行业的机会。 1月工程机械销量下滑,但全年内需有望复苏。受疫情及春节假期影响,中国1月挖掘机销量同比下滑33.1%,环比下滑38.1%。随着疫情影响消退及房地产受政策支持,工程机械相关订单逐步恢复。《工程机械杂志》预估2月挖掘机销量将增长。海外市场需求强于内需,主要是由于东南亚市场工程建设需求大,欧美地区需求维持稳定。中国工程机械企业有望受益于海外市场的持续需求。 科学仪器行业获国家政策支持,国产替代加速。中共中央政治局提出要早日实现用中国自主的研究平台、仪器设备来解决重大基础研究问题。目前中国科学仪器行业主要依赖进口,2016-2019年中国大型科研仪器整体进口率达70.60%,国产替代需求强烈。 风险因素:经济复苏不及预期。
研究报告全文:股票Research研究TableBasicInfoEquitySectorReportMachinerySectorAlexBai白舸行业报告机械行业85225097202gebaigtjascomhk1March2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdatetheConstructionMachineryIndustryIsExpectedToRecovertheScientificInstrumentIndustry行业SupportedbyPolicies双周报工程机械行业有望复苏科学仪器行业受政策支持报Theautomationequipmentindustryisexpectedtoimproveand告SectorReportindustrialrobotsaredevelopingrapidlyAccordingtoMarketingTableInvestInfoIntelligenceResourceChinasindustrialrobotsalesexceeded280000unitsRatingOutperformin2022anincreaseof10YoYTherapiddevelopmentofindustrialrobotsMaintainedhasmainlybeendrivenbydemandfromemergingindustriessuchasnew评级跑赢大市维持energyvehicleslithiumbatteriesphotovoltaicsandmedicalcareWebelievethatindustrialautomationequipmentmayenteranupwardcycleandHangSengCompositeIndustryIndex-weareoptimisticaboutopportunitiesinthemachinetoolindustryinjectionIndustrialsvsHangSengIndexmoldingmachineindustryanddie-castingmachineindustry恒生综合行业指数-工业vs恒生指数SalesofconstructionmachineryfellinJanuarybutdomesticdemand100ofreturnisexpectedtorecoverthroughouttheyearAffectedbythelocalCovid00epidemicandtheSpringFestivalholidaysalesofexcavatorsinChinafellby100证331YoYand381MoMinJanuaryWiththeimpactoftheepidemic告subsidingandsupportfromrealestatepoliciesordersrelatedtoconstruction200券machinerygraduallyrecoveredCMEpredictedthatsalesofexcavatorsin300研报FebruarywillincreaseDemandinoverseasmarketswasstrongerthan400究究domesticdemandmainlyduetohighdemandforengineeringconstructionin500ResearchReporttheSoutheastAsianmarketwhiledemandinEuropeandtheUnitedStates报研600remainedstableChineseconstructionmachinerycompaniesareexpected告Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23券tobenefitfromcontinueddemandinoverseasmarketsHSIIndexHSCIINIndexEquityThescientificmachineryindustryissupportedbynationalpoliciesand证domesticsubstitutionisacceleratingThePoliticalBureauofChinaSourceHangSengIndexGuotaiJunanInternationalproposedtouseChinasindependentresearchplatformsinstrumentsandequipmenttosolvemajorbasicresearchproblemsassoonaspossibleAtpresentChinasscientificinstrumentindustrymainlyreliesonimportsFromTa2016to2019theoverallimportrateoflarge-scalescientificresearchbleinstrumentsinChinareached7060andthereisagrowingdomesticLeftMsubstitutiontrendargiRiskfactorsEconomicrecoverymaybeweakerthanexpectedn自动化设备行业预期向好工业机器人发展迅速根据睿工业数据2022年中国工业机器人销量超过28万台同比增长10工业机器人的快速发展主要受益于新能源车锂机电光伏医疗等新兴行业需求拉动我们认为工业自动化设备或将进入上行周期我们械看好机床行业注塑机行业压铸机行业的机会行业1月工程机械销量下滑但全年内需有望复苏受疫情及春节假期影响中国1月挖掘机销量同比下滑331环比下滑381随着疫情影响消退及房地产受政策支持工程MachinerySector机械相关订单逐步恢复工程机械杂志预估2月挖掘机销量将增长海外市场需求强于内需主要是由于东南亚市场工程建设需求大欧美地区需求维持稳定中国工程机械企业有望受益于海外市场的持续需求科学仪器行业获国家政策支持国产替代加速中共中央政治局提出要早日实现用中国自主的研究平台仪器设备来解决重大基础研究问题目前中国科学仪器行业主要依赖进口2016-2019年中国大型科研仪器整体进口率达7060国产替代需求强烈风险因素经济复苏不及预期SeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3ConstructionMachineandEquipmentandMachineConstructioniCovidlocalyearthethroughoutrecovertoexpectedisdemanddomesticbutJanuaryinfellmachineryconstructionofSalesthemachineindustrytoolinjandcaremedicalbelieveWethatindustrialautomationequipmententermayanupwardandcycleweareoptimisticabouttherobotsindustrialInteautomationTheSeinvestmentopportunitiesbroughtaboutbythestrengtheningofChinasmanufacturingindustryChinasadvancedsubstitutionpolicysupporthasmanufacturingindustryindustrytoolcycleupwardanentermayequipmentautomationindustrialthatbelieveWepenetrationrateofsingledietheoflandscapecompetitiveTheChineseofcooperatednumberawithfordemanddrivenhaswhichdevelopingindustryautomobileisrapidlymaintainmanufacturersvehicleenergynewChinasscientificresearchinstrumentsinChinareached7060andthereaispossibleasAtpresentChinasscientificinstrumentindustrymainlyonreliesimportsFrom20162019toovetheproblemresearchbasicmajorsolvetoequipmentandinstrumentsplatformsresearchindependentChinasusetoproposedChinaacceleratingissubstitutiondomesticandpoliciesnationalbysupportedismachineryindustryscientificThemarketsrStatesUnitedthetoduemainlydemanddomesticthanpcotepdmcusdnadsupportandsubsidingepidemictheofmpactelgneResourcelligencethelastpagepidemicandtheSpringFestivalholidaysalesholidayFestivalSpringtheandepidemicinjectionmoldingmachineindustryanddieandindustrymachinemoldinginjectionehaforequipmentemainedstableChineseconstructionmachinerycompaniesareexpectedtobenefitfromcontinueddemandinoverseasindemandcontinuedfrombenefittoexpectedarecompaniesmachineryconstructionChinesestableemainedsdisclaimermainlyCiasnutilooaeecee2000ntn02aicesf0ohrpdeeomnofdevelopmentrapidTheYoY10ofincreasean2022inunits280000exceededsalesrobotindustrialChinas-piecedieectionmoldingmachineindustryanddiebeennutysxetdoimprovetoexpectedisindustrysingle-drcastingsolutionsivenbydemandfromdemandbyiven-vehiclemanufacturerscastingmachineindustryisstableandleadingcomleadingandstableisindustrymachinecasting-predictedthatsalesofexcavatorsinFebruarywillincreaseDemandinoverseasmarketswasstrongerwasoverseasmarketsinDemandincreasewillFebruaryinexcavatorsofsalesthatpredictedhighpieceVehiclemanufacturersandpartssuppliersareactivelyinvestinginnewtechnologiesandprocessesandactivelyehiclenewaretechnologiesmanufacturersandinvestingsupplie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