【基本面信息】
　　橡胶：截至2023年2月24日，上期所天然橡胶库存197977(-201)吨，仓单186970（1390）吨。20号胶库存35875（2117）吨，仓单27106（454）吨。
　　甲醇：库存方面，港口库存总量报72.09万吨，环比-3.43万吨。企业库存环比-5.29万吨，报41.12万吨。利润方面，煤炭下跌，企业利润小幅回升，绝对值仍处于低位水平。传统需求方面，甲醛、二甲醚开工回升，氯化物、醋酸开工回落，总体有所回升。
　　 PVC：近期PVC期货反弹主要是受市场经济预期转暖、地产回暖传导至PVC建材需求增加等因素造成，但随PVC期货和现货价格上涨，下游采购企业存在高价抵触情绪，采购意愿减弱。导致PVC现货市场不及期货，再度转为贴水状态。需求端的低迷导致PVC库存难以消化，加之货源充足，PVC基本面依旧孱弱，恐难以支撑价格进一步上涨。
　　

研究报告全文：能源化工期权日报期权研究2023年3月2日星期四基本面信息橡胶截至2023年2月24日上期所天然橡胶库存197977-201吨仓单1869701390吨20号胶库存358752117吨仓单27106454吨甲醇库存方面港口库存总量报7209万吨环比-343万吨企业库存环比-529万吨报4112万吨利润方面煤炭下跌企业利润小幅回升绝对值仍处于低位水平传统需求方面甲醛二甲醚开工回升氯化物醋酸开工回落总体有所回升卢品先PVC近期PVC期货反弹主要是受市场经济预期转暖地产回暖传导至PVC建材需求增加等因素造成但随PVC期货和现货价格上涨下游采购企业存在高价抵触情绪采购意愿减弱导致PVC现货市场不及期货再度转为贴水状投研经理态需求端的低迷导致PVC库存难以消化加之货源充足PVC基本面依旧孱弱恐难以支撑价格进一步上涨0755-23375252lupxwkjyqhcom期权分析及策略建议1橡胶期权从业资格号橡胶RU2305高位回落后连续大幅下跌延续一个多月以来低位弱势盘整震荡涨幅076报收于12600期F3047321权隐含波动率下降087报收于2053持仓量PCR较低位置窄幅盘整报收于050操作建议沪胶高位回落后维持交易咨询号一个月以来的弱势偏空头宽幅矩形区间盘整橡胶期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建卖出Z0015541看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如RU2305期权SRU2305P1250010SRU2305P1225010和SRU2305C1275010SRU2305C13000102甲醇期权甲醇MA304上周以来逐渐反弹回暖上升连续报收阳线突破上涨本周以来冲高回落震荡下行跌幅037报收于2662期权隐含波动率上升058报收于1968持仓量PCR窄幅盘整报收于058操作建议甲醇上周超跌反弹连续上涨先后站上21天均线和55天均线而后冲高回落连续报收阴线市场转为短期偏弱势甲醇期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR小幅盘整构建卖出偏空头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如MA305期权SMA305P265010SMA305P260010和STMA305C275010SMA305C2700103PTA期权PTATA304上周以来超跌反弹连续大幅上涨后高位震荡涨幅105报收于5764期权隐含波动率下降027报收于2127持仓量PCR大幅上升报收于081操作建议PTA上周超跌反弹回升后围绕20天均线上下波动上方有前期高点压力逐渐弱势下行PTA期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR维持较低水平构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏中性组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如TA305期权STA305P570010STA305P560010和STA305C580010STA305C5900104塑料期权塑料L2305前一周以来企稳60天均线回暖上升逐渐反弹上涨突破20天均线上周以来高位盘整震荡后继续突破上涨涨幅068报收于8411期权隐含波动率上升023报收于1493持仓量PCR小幅下降报收于073操作上建议塑料上周先扬后抑形成高位区间震荡行情偏多头市场行情塑料期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR维持较低水平构建卖出偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓离场如L2305期权SL2305-P-830010SL2305-P-840010和SL2305-C-850010SL2305-C-8600105聚丙烯期权聚丙烯PP2305前一周止跌反弹逐渐回暖上升连续偏多头上涨而上升受阻回落连续报收阴线形成短期弱势偏空头涨幅044报收于7921期权隐含波动率下降044报收于1422持仓量PC小幅下降报收于070操作上建议聚丙烯低位反弹后连续报收阳线而后上升受阻回落连续报收阴线跌破21天均线延续短期弱势偏空头趋势聚丙烯期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR持续下降构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如PP2305期权SPP2305-P-790010SPP2305-P-780010和SPP2305-C-810010SPP2305-C-8000106PVC期权PVCV2305前一周以来空头压力线下区间盘整震荡上周逐渐回暖上升突破上涨而后高位盘整震荡本周以来连续报收阴线下跌市场延续偏弱势行情涨幅066报收于6412期权隐含波动率上升103报收于1840持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于048操作上建议PVC前一周低位反弹回暖连续报收阳线偏多头上行上周以来延续上升趋势而涨幅收窄形成高位盘整行情走势PVC期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如V2305期权SV2305-P-630010SV2305-P-620010和SV2305-C-650010SV2305-C-640010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿RURU230512600009500076255431943MAMA2304266200-1000-03711723133PTATA2304576400600010517254919LPGPG23045038004800096118811854LL23058411005700068271911357PPPP23057921003500044331013053PVCV23056412004200066681321701数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日RU2305125003720028500125879300074-1300542023-04-24MA2304265033008502675050002125022023-03-03TA230458002750590057691345023945022023-03-03PG2304505075806000506614020285278062023-03-07L23058400146001550083917150086-2000402023-04-10PP23057900141501340079084300055-1350402023-04-10V23056400138001370064012200034-1100402023-04-10数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWRU2305219416462053-087214622082084MA2304201418971968058205721751939TA2304195123372127-047222423372110PG2304264228992750032277228752669L2305156113961493023163017241536PP2305147513621422044158916911487V2305193516541840103208122401923数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化RU23051658557580350055296726269050-000MA230413330384681064-0177742244675058-007TA2304308530258213084014149700120938081014PG230433482241080720092243814228063017L2305124638679070-0121758112851073-002PP23051600314236089-0072409416926070-013V23052522812758051-0396991933677048-001数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1橡胶主力合约走势图14000成交量万6013500收盘价50130001256000401250030120002011500101100002022-10-212022-11-032023-02-162023-03-012022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-262022-10-312022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-212023-02-24图2甲醇主力合约走势图2900成交量万3002800收盘价2700263400225260015025002400752300220002022-08-242022-12-232023-02-242022-08-192022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-03-01图3PTA主力合约走势图6500320成交量万收盘价60005746002405500160500080450002022-08-292022-12-232023-02-082022-08-192022-08-242022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-01标的价量关系图4LPG主力合约走势图600018成交量万收盘价161455005071001210500086450042400002022-11-082022-12-202023-02-082022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-01图5塑料主力合约走势图900070成交量万收盘价608500508398004080003075002010700002022-08-242022-10-262022-12-202022-08-192022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-01图6PP主力合约走势图900080成交量万收盘价70850060507910008000403075002010700002022-08-242022-10-262022-12-202022-08-192022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-01图8PVC主力合约走势图7200160收盘价收盘价14067001201006200806398006057004020520002022-09-202022-11-242022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-01橡胶期权持仓分布橡胶期权持仓分布图橡胶期权持仓变化图1400050012000400300100002008000100600004000-1002000-2000-30011750117509900990010250107501125012250127501325013750142501475015250157509900102501075011250117501225012750132501375014250147501525015750OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC橡胶期权最大未平仓橡胶认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价17000160001500014000130001200011000100002022-09-012022-09-232022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-01橡胶期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓橡胶期权持仓量PCR橡胶期权隐含波动率08014000OIPCR34CLOSE070135003212560003006013000049602805012500262404012000220301150020020110002022-11-112022-08-192022-08-292022-09-062022-09-152022-09-232022-10-102022-10-182022-10-262022-11-032022-11-212022-11-292022-12-072022-12-152022-12-232023-01-032023-01-112023-01-192023-02-032023-02-132023-02-212023-03-012023-02-212022-08-312022-09-132022-09-232022-10-122022-10-242022-11-032022-11-152022-11-252022-12-072022-12-192022-12-292023-01-112023-01-302023-02-092022-08-19IMPVMA20UPLOW甲醇期权持仓分布甲醇期权持仓分布图甲醇期权持仓变化图2000070001800060001600050001400040003000120002000100001000800006000-10004000-20002000-30000-4000310032002150220022502300235024002450250026002700280029003000OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC甲醇期权最大未平仓甲醇认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价32003000280026002400220020002022-09-232022-11-162023-01-192022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-162023-02-212023-02-242023-03-01甲醇期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓甲醇期权持仓量PCR甲醇期权隐含波动率2002900OIPCR50CLOSE280016040270012030260008020263400250004024001000023002022-09-232022-11-292023-02-032022-08-192022-08-292022-09-062022-09-152022-10-102022-10-182022-10-262022-11-032022-11-112022-11-212022-12-072022-12-152022-12-232023-01-032023-01-112023-01-192023-02-132023-02-212023-03-012023-02-212022-08-312022-09-132022-09-232022-10-122022-10-242022-11-032022-11-152022-11-252022-12-072022-12-192022-12-292023-01-112023-01-302023-02-092022-08-19IMPVMA20UPLOWPTA期权持仓分布PTA期权持仓分布图PTA期权持仓变化图30000150002500010000500020000015000-500010000-100005000-150000-200005000500046004600470048004900520054005600580060006200640066004600470048004900500052005400560058006000620064006600OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGECPTA期权最大未平仓PTA认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价8000750070006500600055005000450040002022202320222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202220222022202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023-------------------------------------------11020808080909090909090910101010101011111111111112121212121212010101010101020202020203--------------------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