铜：中国制造业PMI均回到荣枯线以上且好于预期，海外交易所铜库存续降，昨日铜价延续反弹，伦铜收涨1.65%至9128美元/吨，沪铜主力收至70010元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存减少900至63200吨，注销仓单比例提高至41.0%，Cash/3M贴水10美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上海地区现货贴水持平于50元/吨，持货商挺价情绪仍存，下游询盘尚可。进出口方面，昨日国内现货铜进口亏损扩至1000元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价持平。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差缩窄至1730元/吨，废铜替代优势略降。价格层面，海外供应减少的担忧和国内需求预期回暖推动价格反弹，但美国经济数据偏强和地缘局势可能升级的背景下，市场风险情绪或受影响，叠加国内库存水平中等偏高，铜价持续拉涨难度大。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：69000-70500元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230302铜中国制造业PMI均回到荣枯线以上且好于预期海外交易所铜库存续降昨日铜价延续反弹伦铜收涨165至9128美元吨沪铜主力收至70010元吨产业层面昨日LME库存减少900至63200吨注销仓单比例提高至410Cash3M贴水10美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货贴水持平于50元吨持货商挺价情绪仍存下游询盘尚可进出口方面昨日国内现货铜进口有色金属小组亏损扩至1000元吨左右洋山铜溢价持平废铜方面昨日国内精废价差缩窄至1730元吨废铜替代优势略降价格层面海外供应减少的担忧和国内需求预期回暖推动价格反弹但美国经吴坤金济数据偏强和地缘局势可能升级的背景下市场风险情绪或受影响叠加国内库存水平中等偏从业资格号F3036210高铜价持续拉涨难度大今日沪铜主力运行区间参考69000-70500元吨交易咨询号Z00159240755-23375135wkjwkqhcn铝沪铝主力合约报收18650元吨截止昨日下午三点上涨108SMM现货A00铝报均价王震宇18440元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-90铝期货仓单201883吨较前一日下降632吨LME铝库存从业资格号F3082524550100吨下降4800吨2023年2月27日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1268万吨较上周四交易咨询号Z0018567库存增加2万吨较1月底库存月度增加282万吨较2022年2月份历史同期库存增加151万吨0755-23375132较春节前119日库存累计增加524万吨本周电解铝锭库存仍是小幅增加趋势较上周四wangzywkqhcn223日库存增加2万吨增幅放缓2023年1月份31天国内电解铝产量3418万吨环比下降06同比增长67日均产量环比下降642吨至1103万吨日国内PMI超预期带动铝价强钟靖从业资格号F3035267势反弹沪铝预计震荡偏强运行主力合约参考运行区间18200-188000755-23375125zhongjwkqhcn锡沪锡主力合约报收209820元吨上涨028截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单上升193吨现为8279吨LME库存减少10吨现为2940吨长江有色锡1的平均价为205750元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收191500元吨1月份国内精炼锡产量为11990吨较去年12月份环比减少2461同比减少11771月国内精炼锡产量实际表现低于预期加工费持续走低压制冶炼厂生产意愿沪锡震荡行情预计延续主力参考运行区间200000-220000镍周三LME镍库存减54吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格涨044沪镍主力合约跌117国内基本面方面周三现货价格报195900202100元吨俄镍现货对换月04合约升水5350元吨金川镍现货升水8250元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口盈亏平衡附近短期国内供应和需求边际修复但过剩压力不减镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持平稳增长趋势综合来看需求回暖但短期镍铁和精炼镍实际基本面走强仍待观察不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存去库需求弱现实和经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内产业链需求回升拐点对原料价格支撑中期关注中国和印尼中间品和镍板新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000225000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年3月1日日频数据2023年3月2日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜632009002590040981650249598789914301422054293798803551507677687821406铝550100480010615019304648295920756520188363248401467559030774764814954锌33225125250075227001209772845559191572165580141101557477518282559铅25100051502052100480065383429990919152158195507087178573201镍44094541860422214002514104215450129704133442023年3月1日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期68854USDCNY即期687951个月美元LIBOR466943个月美元LIBOR497102023年3月2日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价3000002000065005300009000048000080000250000550015000430000450070000380000200000100003500330000600001500005000250028000050000230000100000150040000018000050030000130000500005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-072022-092021-042021-052021-062021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价2500000701400004004400120000603003900200000010000050800002003400150000040600001002900400001000000302000002400205000000-100190010200000040000-20014002023-012021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-02SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002021-092022-092022-112023-012021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-122023-02SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002022-092022-112023-012021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-122023-02SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量2500002500020017000180000200001600001600020000010015000140000100001500001200001500005000140001000000-10080000100000500013000-200600001000012000500001500040000-300110002000020000025000-4001000002021-082022-112021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-122023-012023-02镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价570003000006040002000520004700025000050200015004200001000200000403700020005003200015000030270004000022000100000206000-500170001200050000108000-100070000010000-15002021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90060009001000400008508502000-10000800800-2000-2000750-3000-4000750-4000-6000700-5000700-8000650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-12锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价95020001050010001000900-10000950850-1000900-2000-2000850800-3000-3000800750-4000750-4000-5000700700-5000-6000650650-7000600-60002021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-122021-042021-082021-122022-042022-082022-12汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02