【基本面信息】
铜:产业层面,昨日LME库存减少175至64100吨,注销仓单比例提高至37.9%,Cash/3M贴水10美元/吨。国内方面,昨日上海地区现货贴水缩窄至50元/吨,持货商挺价意愿较强,买盘积极性环比减弱。进出口方面,昨日国内现货铜进口亏损扩至750元/吨左右,洋山铜溢价持平。 铝:SMM现货A00铝报均价18330元/吨。A00铝锭升贴水平均价-110。铝期货仓单202515吨,较前一日下降973吨。LME铝库存554900吨,减少4475吨。2023年2月27日,SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存126.8万吨。 黄金:截至2月28日(周二),全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)SPDRGold Trust黄金持仓量为29427686.3盎司或915.3吨,较前一交易日减少74383.01盎司或2.31吨,幅度为0.25%。 铁矿石:港口现货成交情况一般,现货价格持稳,钢厂按需采购。近期海外发运和到港量处于相对偏低水平,未来几周有到港量有望回升,目前港口库存仍在持续累库,港口现货资源充足。近几周钢厂利润虽有所回升,但也只是部分钢厂处于盈亏平衡线,其余钢厂仍处于亏损状态,所以钢厂铁矿石库存一直处于低位,补库意愿较低。 研究报告全文:金属期权日报期权研究2023年3月1日星期三基本面信息铜产业层面昨日LME库存减少175至64100吨注销仓单比例提高至379Cash3M贴水10美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货贴水缩窄至50元吨持货商挺价意愿较强买盘积极性环比减弱进出口方面昨日国内现货铜进口亏损扩至750元吨左右洋山铜溢价持平铝SMM现货A00铝报均价18330元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-110铝期货仓单202515吨较前一日下降973吨LME铝库存554900吨减少4475吨2023年2月27日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1268万吨卢品先黄金截至2月28日周二全球最大黄金上市交易基金ETFSPDRGoldTrust黄金持仓量为294276863盎司或9153吨较前一交易日减少7438301盎司或231吨幅度为025投研经理铁矿石港口现货成交情况一般现货价格持稳钢厂按需采购近期海外发运和到港量处于相对偏低水平0755-23375252未来几周有到港量有望回升目前港口库存仍在持续累库港口现货资源充足近几周钢厂利润虽有所回升但也lupxwkjyqhcom只是部分钢厂处于盈亏平衡线其余钢厂仍处于亏损状态所以钢厂铁矿石库存一直处于低位补库意愿较低从业资格号期权分析及策略建议F30473211铜期权交易咨询号沪铜CU2304前一周企稳回升后连续上涨偏多头上涨上周以来冲高回落震荡下行而止跌反弹上升上方有前Z0015541期高点压力下方有中期趋势线方向向上涨幅150报收于69760期权隐含波动率下降019报收于1807持仓量PCR有所上升报收于165操作建议沪铜CU2304上周快速上涨后高位盘整震荡下跌回落后快速反弹上涨形成上方有压力下方有支撑的偏多头上行期权隐含波动率持续下降期权持仓量PCR则快速上升构建卖出看涨看跌偏多头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓逐渐离场如CU2304SCU2304P68000SCU2304P69000和SCU2304C70000SCU2304C710002铝期权沪铝AL2304前一周以来超跌反弹逐渐回暖上升而后受阻回落上周延续上方有压力的弱势偏空头跌幅024报收于18435期权隐含波动率下降104报收于1392持仓量PCR小幅上升报收于090操作建议沪铝AL2304延续空头压力线下弱势盘整震荡期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR有所反弹上升构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如AL2304SAL2304P1820010SAL2304P1830010和SAL2304C1840010SAL2304C18500103锌期权沪锌ZN2304上周以来超跌反弹连续上涨回暖上升而后上升受阻55天均线压力回落延续前期偏空头市场行情趋势涨幅024报收于23190期权隐含波动率上升001报收于1693持仓量PCR窄幅盘整报收于110操作建议沪锌ZN2304延续前期弱势偏空头趋势期权隐含波动率持续下降回落后窄幅波动沪锌期权持仓量PCR小幅盘整构建卖出宽跨式期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如ZN2304SZN2304P23000SZN2304P22800和SZN2304C23400SZN2304C232004黄金期权黄金AU2304维持近三周以来低位弱势盘整震荡涨幅047报收于41452期权隐含波动率小幅下降050报收于1127期权持仓量PCR报收于074操作建议黄金AU2304维持近三周以来的宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR窄幅盘整构建卖出偏多头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓离场如AU2304SAU2304-P-40010SAU2304-P-40810和SAU2304-C-41610SAU2304-C-424105铁矿石期权铁矿石I2305前一周连续报收阳线突破上涨上周高位盘整震荡有所回落而趋势线方向仍向上涨幅023报收于88900期权隐含波动率上升006报收于3084期权持仓量PCR小幅上升报收于371操作建议铁矿石I2505多头趋势方向高位盘整震荡有所回落而趋势线方向斜率仍为正期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR维持较高水平构建反向比率价差认购期权组合策略获取方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则平仓离场如I2305BI2301-C-92020和SI2305-C-88010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CUCU2304697600010300015085229269ALAL23041843500-4500-024150913945ZNZN230423190005500024101911793AUAU23044145219204792838282II230588900200023466441379数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日CU230470000754001698006905672800107-70400272023-03-27AL23041840030100234001846775000413200272023-03-27ZN23042320038800422002316623300102-2400272023-03-27AU2304416302628413056014-178272023-03-27I230589032703370889140016000412023-04-10数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWCU2304160719361807-019182219171727AL2304151212591392-104151815871450ZN2304169216941693001183919291749AU2304118410461127-050120112771125I2305277232453084006332935303128数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化CU23041769927445155-0231344522177165008AL230414647133670910122530822720090001ZN2304836910488125-09688269673110-001AU230437332597070-0371675712337074-002I2305337276533919401391744340483371006数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1铜主力合约走势图7500025成交量万收盘价69050007000020650001560000105500055000002022-11-102022-12-192023-02-022022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-28图2铝主力合约走势图2000040成交量万收盘价19500351846000190003018500251800020175001517000101650051600002022-09-052022-09-192023-01-102023-01-302022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-082022-09-142022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-132023-01-182023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-28图3锌主力合约走势图2600050成交量万收盘价25000402400030230002315500202200021000102000002023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-28图4黄金主力合约走势图30成交量万收盘价42041264405203901037536002022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-28图5铁矿石主力合约走势图1000140成交量万收盘价888501209001008008070060406002050002022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-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02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-28黄金期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓黄金期权持仓量PCR黄金期权隐含波动率095430OIPCR4126425090CLOSE4200854102008007540007039015065380060100553700503602022-08-182022-11-022022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-172022-10-252022-11-102022-11-182022-11-282022-12-062022-12-142022-12-222022-12-302023-01-102023-01-182023-02-022023-02-102023-02-202023-02-282023-02-202022-08-302022-09-092022-09-222022-10-112022-10-212022-11-022022-11-142022-11-242022-12-062022-12-162022-12-282023-01-102023-01-202023-02-082022-08-18IMPVMA20UPLOW铁矿石期权持仓分布铁矿石期权持仓分布图铁矿石期权持仓变化图6000020005000015004000010003000050020000010000-5000-10007807807201100480480510540570600630660690720750810840870900930960990104011004805105405706006306606907507808108408709009309609901040OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC铁矿石期权最大未平仓铁矿石认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价10009509008508007507006506005505002022-09-192022-12-062023-02-072022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-102023-02-152023-02-202023-02-232023-02-28铁矿石期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓铁矿石期权持仓量PCR铁矿石期权隐含波动率88850410950OIPCR70360CLOSE90060310850502608004021075030160700201106500606002022-10-172022-11-282022-08-182022-08-262022-09-052022-09-142022-09-222022-09-302022-10-252022-11-022022-11-102022-11-182022-12-062022-12-142022-12-222022-12-302023-01-102023-01-182023-02-022023-02-102023-02-202023-02-282023-02-202022-08-302022-09-092022-09-222022-10-112022-10-212022-11-022022-11-142022-11-242022-12-062022-12-162022-12-282023-01-102023-01-202023-02-082022-08-18IMPVMA20UPLOW免责声明五矿期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构已具备有商品期货经纪金融期货经纪资产管理期货交易咨询等业务资格本刊所有信息均建立在可靠的资料来源基础上我们力求能为您提供精确的数据客观的分析和全面的观点但我们必须声明对所有信息可能导致的任何损失概不负责本报告并不提供量身定制的交易建议报告的撰写并未虑及读者的具体财务状况及目标五矿期货研究团队建议交易者应独立评估特定的交易和战略并鼓励交易者征求专业财务顾问的意见具体的交易或战略是否恰当取决于交易者自身的状况和目标文中所提及的任何观点都仅供参考不构成买卖建议版权声明本报告版权为五矿期货有限公司所有本刊所含文字数据和图表未经五矿期货有限公司书面许可任何人不得以电子机械影印录音或其它任何形式复制传播或存储于任何检索系统不经许可复制本刊任何内容皆属违反版权法行为可能将受到法律起诉并承担与之相关的所有损失赔偿和法律费用五矿期货分支机构深圳总部业务一部深圳市南山区滨海大道3165号五矿金融大厦13-16层电话400-888-5398电话0755-83252740业务二部业务三部电话0755-88917165电话0755-83752356业务四部业务五部电话010-68331868-183电话028-85053476深圳营业部北京分公司深圳市福田区福华三路1006号诺德大厦30D1北京市海淀区首体南路6号新世纪世行饭店写字楼1253室电话0755-83752310电话010-68332068上海分公司成都分公司上海市浦东新区向城路288号国华人寿金融大厦902903成都高新区天府大道北段1288号1幢3单元12层12041205电话021-58784529电话028-86131072青岛分公司北京营业部山东省青岛市东海西路35号太平洋中心1写字楼409北京市丰台区广安路9号院6号楼408409电话0532-85780820电话010-64185322广州营业部湛江营业部广东省广州市天河区珠江西路17号广晟国际大厦24楼2407广东省湛江市开发区乐山东路35号银隆广场12层A1210室电话020-29117582电话0759-2856220天津营业部西安营业部天津市滨海高新区华苑产业区梅苑路5号金座广场2101-陕西省西安市新城区纬什街新科路1号楼一层2102电话029-87572985电话022-23778878宁波中山西路营业部重庆营业部浙江省宁波市海曙区布政巷16号12楼1205室重庆市江北区江北城西大街25号11-1电话0574-87330527电话023-67078086郑州营业部南通营业部郑州市未来路69号未来大厦16层1612号江苏省南通市青年东路81号南通大饭店B楼财富中心2003室电话0371-65619030电话0513-81026105杭州民心路营业部台州爱华路营业部浙江省杭州市江干区万银大厦1408室浙江省台州市椒江区爱华新台州大厦8-A电话0571-81969926电话0576-89811511济南营业部昆明营业部山东省济南市历下区山大路201号天业科技商务大厦401云南省昆明市盘龙区北京路612号银海国际公寓D座3201室427室电话0871-63338532电话0531-83192255大连营业部唐山营业部辽宁省大连市沙河口区会展路大连国际金融中心A座大连期河北省唐山市路北区军鑫里凤城国贸1楼21层2104号货大厦2001号电话0315-5936395电话0411-84800452武汉营业部湖北省武汉市江岸区三阳路8号天悦星辰A栋26楼2602室电话0755-23375007
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