本周总结：周一长阴线下跌后迅速连续反弹四个交易日，终端成材需求转好带动情绪回暖，双焦受强补库预期支撑
　　下周关注：独立焦化增产情况，钢焦采购价格博弈，策克口岸通关情况，海外焦煤价格，焦化厂与钢厂利润，成材表需
　　策略跟踪：无

研究报告全文：南华期货焦煤焦炭产业周报短期跟随成材走势--2023219南华研究院袁铭资格证号Z0012648刘斯亮资格证号F0309974701本周总结与下周关注目录焦煤短期跟随成材走势Contents0203焦炭短期跟随成材走势01重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议本周总结与下周关注本周总结周一长阴线下跌后迅速连续反弹四个交易日终端成材需求转好带动情绪回暖双焦受强补库预期支撑下周关注独立焦化增产情况钢焦采购价格博弈策克口岸通关情况海外焦煤价格焦化厂与钢厂利润成材表需策略跟踪无02周度策略单边基差月间价差焦煤观望观望观望焦炭观望观望观望焦炭-焦煤观望03重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤数据总览估值2月17日上周同期周涨跌供应本期上期环比同比数据频率焦煤23051897184057精煤日均产量万吨62786010446636周焦煤23091762174121洗煤厂开工率77317257653855周焦煤基差106163-57甘其毛都口岸2023进口量万吨308263575-76227累计值焦煤05-091359936焦煤总进口量万吨64649573221278-1366月蒙3精煤17701840-70国有重点煤矿产量万吨16755501630910274-034月沙河驿蒙5217021700库存本期上期环比同比数据频率主焦煤低硫23742398-24气煤196319630港口库存1127411671-340-6625周瘦煤21692197-28独立焦化企业库存9588897127-128-2589周肥煤237223720247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存8229681873052-1356周13焦煤21922222-30矿山企业库存2541025000164065周双焦汽运价格介休洗煤厂精煤库存15459152991054464周180185-5丰南区双焦汽运价格孝义总库存222230223501-057-2206周190205-15日照港运费价格查干哈达堆29027020监管区库存2290322600134-周场甘其毛都口岸-853-800-53总库存铁水产量14481470-150-2947周澳煤进口利润04重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭数据总览估值2月17日上周同期周涨跌数据频率供应本期上期环比同比数据频率焦炭23052832273795日独立焦化企业日均产量万吨66716647036916周焦炭23092704262678日焦炭基差35129-95日独立焦化企业产能利用率72347242-011116周焦炭05-0912811117日钢厂样本焦化厂日均产量万吨47414716053354周日照港准一2700268020日钢厂样本焦化厂产能利用率87138667053153周冶金焦一级272027200日理论焦炭周产量万吨7988479541043675周冶金焦二级255225520日冶金焦准一级湿熄259225920日需求本期上期环比同比数据频率冶金焦准一级干熄293529350日日均铁水产量万吨23081228660941369周现货理论焦化利润顶装焦-268-31042日高炉开工率795478421431431周现货理论焦化利润捣固焦-207-25347日高炉产能利用率857584930971367周盘面05焦化利润按131-144-16219日铁水焦炭理论消耗量10580784800310941369周独立焦化企业吨焦平均利润7-8996周库存本期上期环比同比数据频率独立焦化企业库存万吨1224612526-224-2594周钢厂盈利率36279周247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存万吨6501665166-023-1319周螺纹钢电炉利润-181-25977日247家钢厂样本焦化厂库存可用天数12811297-123-2434周螺纹钢高炉利润-96-11015日港口库存万吨16360153106862136周热轧卷板毛利-132-16634日冷轧卷板毛利-131-14614日全样本库存万吨9362293002067-1076周唐山钢坯利润822854日全样本库存日均铁水产量811813-027-1877周05重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤周度综述现货观察现货受到动力煤以及蒙煤高通关影响现货下跌为主短期补库需求释放较慢现货表现偏弱偏空本周总结供应煤矿与洗煤厂复产较快产量季节性上行偏快蒙煤通关车辆维持在900-1000车左右策克口岸增量明显澳煤进口利润偏低发运暂未起量中性需求独立焦化与钢厂焦化的焦煤可用天数已经接近2022年最低位在铁水上行周期存在较强的补库预期偏多库存总库存下降上游累库焦化厂去库钢厂焦化有一定补库但不明显总库存铁水走低偏多利润独立焦化利润迅速转好澳洲峰景硬焦煤提涨进口利润继续下降中性基差蒙5计算目前2305基差100左右需要注意蒙3价格下跌后按照蒙3精煤测算基差为负中性盘面主要反映终端的需求释放预期短期基建集中开工带动黑色整体走强焦煤补库需求虽然还未释放但下游库存库用天数已经压制到去年最低位钢厂铁水增产的背景下焦煤需求有支撑但是短期独立焦化厂虽然利润迅速转好但是增产略显犹豫供应端主要的利空是策克口岸的进口增量但观点是盘面预期铁水的强势可以进行消化主要矛盾依然在于终端需求的持续性需要注意地产端需求的拖累短期焦煤供需双增3月前终端需求很难证伪钢厂与独立焦化补库需求有望支撑主焦煤现货价格但是部分配煤可能受到动力煤影响而走跌策略观望风险煤矿安全检查蒙煤通关情况钢厂铁水产量焦化厂复产情况澳煤进口利润焦炭提降博弈下游补库不及预期终端工地需求06重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭周度综述现货观察现货日照港准一微涨但是成交偏弱中性本周总结供应钢厂与独立焦化均提产且日均产量高于去年同期焦化厂产量释放偏慢中性需求本周铁水产量继续提升且高于去年同期钢厂进一步提产受到原料与利润的制约有现实补库的需要偏多库存全样本库存微增下游去库港口库存增加贸易商有一定集港投机行为总库存铁水下降偏多利润钢厂焦化厂利润博弈持续受到焦煤下跌带动利润转好中性基差2305基差35市场对于提降博弈较为乐观焦化厂在钢厂提产周期议价权可能更强中性从现货来看现货弱于期货预期2月17日港口进口炼焦煤现货市场弱稳运行钢焦企业原料煤需求仍然不显贸易商情绪下挫出货受阻整体成交情况一般估值来看基差与利润估值中性供应来看由于焦煤成本下移焦化厂利润迅速转好但是产能利用率与产量并未充分释放需求来看盘面主要反映终端的需求释观点放预期短期基建集中开工带动黑色整体走强焦炭库存依然集中在上游钢厂铁水增产的背景下焦炭供需偏紧预计焦炭短期跟随成材走势偏强震荡但是需要关注终端需求的持续性中期需求依然可能被证伪策略观望风险蒙煤通关情况钢厂铁水产量焦化厂复产情况澳煤进口利润焦炭第三轮提降成材需求预期证伪07重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议01周末要闻与下周关注目录焦煤短期跟随成材走势Contents0203焦炭短期跟随成材走势08重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦煤估值-价差2309基差元吨2305基差元吨25008002300004500024007002200004000023003500060021000022003000050020000021002500020004001900002000019003001800001500018001700002001000017001001600005000160015000150000000202211182023118202211142023114基差右轴蒙5精煤仓单成本焦煤2309基差右轴蒙5精煤仓单成本焦煤2305焦煤期限结构焦煤05-09季节性29004002700300250020023001002100019001700-1001500-200020304050607080910111201917101711171217117217317417092023-02-172022-02-1720182019202020212022资料来源钢联万德彭博南华研究焦煤估值-价格与利润焦煤运费元吨澳煤进口利润元吨270350200030025015002501000230200500210150100019050-5001700-10002023-01-042023-01-052023-01-062023-01-072023-01-082023-01-092023-01-102023-01-112023-01-122023-01-132023-01-142023-01-152023-01-162023-01-172023-01-182023-01-192023-01-202023-01-212023-01-222023-01-232023-01-242023-01-252023-01-262023-01-272023-01-282023-01-292023-01-302023-01-312023-02-012023-02-022023-02-032023-02-042023-02-052023-02-062023-02-072023-02-082023-02-092023-02-102023-02-112023-02-122023-02-132023-02-142023-02-152023-02-162023-02-17-1500双焦汽车运输价格介休丰南区日-2000双焦汽车运输价格介休日照港日112131415161718191101111121双焦汽车运输价格孝义日照港日双焦汽车运输价格孝义古冶区日20192020202120222023炼焦煤蒙古产运费价格查干哈达堆场甘其毛都口岸日主要煤种现货均价元吨情绪指数300060240055250023005045200022004015003521001000302000255002019000151018002022-12-302023-01-062023-01-132023-01-202023-01-272023-02-032023-02-102023-02-17焦煤11家期货公司市场情绪指数周焦煤38家煤矿企业市场情绪指数周焦煤16家投资公司市场情绪指数周焦煤31家钢铁企业市场情绪指数周中硫主焦煤价格指数中国日变频周最后一条0102023-02-172023-02-10DCE焦煤主力合约收盘价日变频周最后一条资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-库存上游库存中国矿山焦煤库存万吨上游库存山西矿山焦煤库存万吨上游库存山东矿山焦煤库存万吨400200250350180160300200140250120150200100150801006010040505020000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023日期矿山总库存山西山东安徽河北河南2023-02-172541765159412622023-02-102507215761322023-02-0324484691564138422023-01-272421701562511622023-01-20249867151606103622023-01-132522375162492322023-01-06261688016667682011资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-库存焦煤港口库存万吨焦煤库存结构万吨90018008001600700140060012005001000400800300600200400100200001121314151617181911011111212022-07-082022-08-082022-09-082022-10-082022-11-082022-12-082023-01-082023-02-0820192020202120222023钢厂库存港口库存煤矿库存洗煤厂库存230家独立焦化企业焦煤库存万吨247家钢厂焦煤库存万吨2100130019001200170011001500100013001100900900800700111313241515316307308299281028112712277001121314151617181911011111210122019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-产量洗煤厂精煤库存万吨洗煤厂原煤库存万吨5003004502504003502003001502502001001505010050001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023洗煤厂开工率洗煤厂精煤日均产量吨天90808575807075657060655560505545504045354030112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121013202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动-进口炼焦煤总进口吨月澳洲进口量吨700120060010005008004006003004002002001000013122833143053163073183193010311130123120192020202120222019202020212022蒙古进口量吨俄罗斯美国加拿大总进口量吨4000000450000035000004000000350000030000003000000250000025000002000000200000015000001500000100000010000005000005000000131228331430531630731831930103111301231011213141516171819110111112101420192020202120222019202020212022资料来源钢联南华研究焦煤驱动库存消费比焦煤总库存万吨焦煤总库存日均铁水产量4500344000293500243000191425009200011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120192020202120222023201820192020202120222023247家钢厂库存平均可用天数天独立焦化企业库存平均可用天数天242422222020181816161414121210101121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111210152019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源钢联南华研究01周末要闻与下周关注目录焦煤短期跟随成材走势Contents0203焦炭短期跟随成材走势016重要声明本报告内容及观点仅供参考不构成任何投资建议焦炭估值基差与月差焦炭价格基差元吨2305基差季节性元吨320060016003100500140030004001200290028003001000270020080026001006002500240004002300-1002000-2005207209201120120320基差右轴山西准一级焦折仓单焦炭2305201820192020202120222023焦炭期限结构焦炭05-095003100400290030027002002500100230009181018111812181182183184182100-100020304050607080910111201-2000172023-02-172022-02-1720182019202020212022资料来源钢联南华研究焦炭估值现货价格港口价日照港准一级元吨港口价天津港准一级元吨5000450045004000400035003500300030002500250020002000150010001500500100001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212019202020212022202320192020202120222023产地价格准一级焦炭元吨4500400035003000250020002022-03-182022-05-182022-07-182022-09-182022-11-182023-01-18冶金焦准一级湿熄吕梁冶金焦准一级干熄邢台018冶金焦准一级湿熄唐山资料来源钢联南华研究焦炭估值利润与比值焦炭出口利润元吨盘面焦化利润元吨独立焦化企业吨焦平均利润元吨12008001200100060010004008008002006006000400-200400200-400200-60000-800-200-200-1000-400112131415161718191101111121-400112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023焦煤05焦炭05焦炭05螺纹05焦炭05铁矿051095508550908075450807407065063506055305052504504042519619719819919101911191219119219319419519619719819919101911191219119219319419520620720820920102011201220120220320420201820192020201820192020201820192020019202120222021202220212022资料来源钢联南华研究