铜：美元指数延续走强，海外库存减少，铜价转涨，昨日伦铜收涨2.11%至9055美元/吨，沪铜主力收至69230元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存减少1000至64975吨，注销仓单比例降低，Cash/3M贴水30.8美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上海地区现货由升水转为贴水50元/吨，换月前价差较大使得基差报价转为贴水，贴水情况下贸易商收货意愿尚可。进出口方面，昨日铜现货进口亏损扩至600元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价持平。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差缩至1580元/吨，废铜替代优势降低。价格层面，美国通胀数据强于预期对市场冲击偏中性。海外铜矿供应干扰边际减轻，供应端忧虑有所缓解，海外库存去化或放缓。国内随着铜价回调和需求回暖，供应过剩格局缓解，短期价格预计将继续考验需求端支撑，持续反弹动力不强。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：68000-69600元/吨。

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230217铜美元指数延续走强海外库存减少铜价转涨昨日伦铜收涨211至9055美元吨沪铜主力收至69230元吨产业层面昨日LME库存减少1000至64975吨注销仓单比例降低Cash3M贴水308美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货由升水转为贴水50元吨换月前价差较大使得基差报价转为贴水贴水情况下贸易商收货意愿尚可进出口方面昨日铜现货进口亏损扩至有色金属小组600元吨左右洋山铜溢价持平废铜方面昨日国内精废价差缩至1580元吨废铜替代优势降低价格层面美国通胀数据强于预期对市场冲击偏中性海外铜矿供应干扰边际减轻供应吴坤金端忧虑有所缓解海外库存去化或放缓国内随着铜价回调和需求回暖供应过剩格局缓解短从业资格号F3036210期价格预计将继续考验需求端支撑持续反弹动力不强今日沪铜主力运行区间参考68000-交易咨询号Z001592469600元吨0755-23375135wukjwkqhcn铝沪铝主力合约报收18485元吨截止昨日下午三点上涨118SMM现货A00铝报均价王震宇18430元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-80铝期货仓单221039吨较前一日下降115吨LME铝库存从业资格号F3082524597825吨下降4325吨SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存1216万吨较上周四库存增加增加260755-23375132万吨较本上周一库存量减少02万吨较去年2月份历史同期库存增加177万吨较春节前119wangzywkqhcn号库存累计增加472万吨电解铝锭库存本周出现库存拐点本周四库存较周一相比已出现降幅且环比上周来看库存虽仍有增幅但增加幅度明显放缓且铝棒库存以出现连续两周开始降库本周最新库存2023万吨较上周四库存下降121万吨2023年1月份31天国内电解铝钟靖从业资格号F3035267产量3418万吨环比下降06同比增长67日均产量环比下降642吨至1103万吨日沪铝0755-23375125预计震荡运行主力合约参考运行区间18200-18800zhongjwkqhcn锡沪锡主力合约报收213430元吨上涨146截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单下降92吨现为8288吨LME库存减少75吨现为3070吨长江有色锡1的平均价为213500元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收198250元吨1月份国内精炼锡产量为11990吨较去年12月份环比减少2461同比减少11771月国内精炼锡产量实际表现低于预期沪锡震荡行情预计延续主力参考运行区间205000-220000镍周四LME镍库存减1134吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格涨244沪镍主力合约跌003国内基本面方面周四现货价格报207500212800元吨俄镍现货对03合约升水5400元吨金川镍现货升水7900元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口盈亏平衡附近短期淡季弱需求现实下国内供应边际增长过剩压力不减镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持平稳增长趋势综合来看季节性需求淡季继续影响短期镍铁和精炼镍实际基本面不锈钢需求方面本周无锡佛山社会库存再度累库需求弱现实和经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内产业链需求回升拐点和淡季产业链弱需求现实博弈对原料价格影响中期关注中国和印尼中间品和镍板新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000225000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年2月16日日频数据2023年2月17日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜64975100092751427315024200978991325305264114341315290107667657791136铝5978254325145750243839752689847565221039115486369107517040775767810820锌298504775657522032725105669284556102226185967365301657457508252453铅2470020053752176127550867538372585733122051197100457357368562469镍4543211342874633221003380104220847612209086832023年2月16日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期68516USDCNY即期686821个月美元LIBORNA3个月美元LIBORNA2023年2月17日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价3000002000065005300009000048000080000250000550015000430000450070000380000200000100003500330000600001500005000250028000050000230000100000150040000018000050030000130000500005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-072022-092021-042021-052021-062021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价250000070140000350440012000030060390020000001000002505020080000340015000001504060000100290040000100000030502000024002000500000-5019001020000-1000040000-15014002023-012021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-02SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量250000250002001700018000016000020000160002000001001500014000015000012000015000010000140001000005000-10010000013000800000-200600005000120005000040000-300110001000020000015000-4001000002021-082022-112021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-122023-012023-02镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价5700030000060800020005200060004700025000050150040004200010002000004020003700005003200015000030270002000022000100000204000-500170006000120005000010-1000800070000010000-1500沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90060009001000400008508502000-10000800800-2000-2000750-3000-4000750-4000-6000700-5000700-8000650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价9502000105010001000100090000950-1000850-1000900-2000850-2000800-3000800-3000750-4000750-4000-5000700700-5000-6000650650-7000600-60002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02