研究报告全文：能源化工期权日报期权研究2023年2月17日星期五基本面信息橡胶截至2023年2月10日上期所天然橡胶1962822808吨仓单1851202808吨20号胶库存32548-1854吨仓单277612985吨交易所青岛库存9521068万吨甲醇库存方面港口库存总量报7151万吨环比169万吨企业库存环比-204万吨报4677万吨利润方面煤炭下跌企业利润小幅回升绝对值仍处于低位水平传统需求方面甲醛醋酸开工回升氯化物开工回落总体出现回升卢品先PVC库存方面去年华东库存持续维持高位10月之后的去库是因为PVC开工下降供应下降以及市场对未来需求的预期令中下游开始拿货但没有实际需求所以现在PVC开工提升库存大幅累积当前华东华南PVC库投研经理存4475万吨今年以来累库19万吨库存压力较大0755-23375252lupxwkjyqhcom期权分析及策略建议从业资格号1橡胶期权F3047321橡胶RU2305高位回落后连续大幅下跌延续两周多以来的空头下行跌幅016报收于12545期权隐含波交易咨询号动率下降091报收于2036持仓量PCR较低位置窄幅盘整报收于058操作建议沪胶延续短期趋势方向的空头Z0015541下跌趋势橡胶期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如RU2305期权SRU2305P1225010SRU2305P1250010和SRU2305C1275010SRU2305C13000102甲醇期权甲醇MA304延续两周以来的空头下行趋势先后跌破21天均线和55天均线而后维持一周以来的弱势盘整涨幅004报收于2614期权隐含波动率上升035报收于2014持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于057操作建议甲醇高位回落后连续震荡下行近一个月以来形成倒V型走势短期趋势空头下行趋势甲醇期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR持续下降至较低水平构建卖出偏空头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如MA304期权SMA304P255010SMA304P250010和STMA304C265010SMA304C2600103PTA期权PTATA304高位回落后连续两周弱势下行而后维持一周以来的弱势震荡涨幅029报收于5494期权隐含波动率持续上升002报收于2165持仓量PCR不断下降报收于064操作建议PTA高位回落后延续近两周以来的弱势偏空头逐渐下跌而下方有60天均线支撑形成中期趋势向上短期趋势偏空头的行情走势PTA期权隐含波动率小幅下降持仓量PCR急速下跌至较低位置构建卖出看涨看跌期权偏空头组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如TA304期权STA304P530010STA304P540010和STA304C550010STA304C5600104塑料期权塑料L2305倒V型市场行情走势形态而后延续两周以来的弱势盘整震荡涨幅002报收于8196期权隐含波动率下降014报收于1616持仓量PCR小幅下降报收于078操作上建议塑料前一周高位回落后连续弱势下行上周以来维持在20天均线和60天均线之间盘整震荡塑料期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于100以下构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如L2305期权SL2305-P-800010SL2305-P-810010和SL2305-C-820010SL2305-C-8300105聚丙烯期权聚丙烯PP2305春节过后冲高回落连续近两周以来的大幅下跌上周以来空头压力线下弱势盘整涨幅046报收于7832期权隐含波动率下降051报收于1553持仓量PC小幅下降报收于089操作上建议聚丙烯一个月以来形成倒V型走势上周以来矩形区间震荡聚丙烯期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR持续下降构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则平仓离场如PP2305期权SPP2305-P-770010SPP2305-P-780010和SPP2305-C-790010SPP2305-C-7800106PVC期权PVCV2305前一周连续报收大阴线后上周以来空头压力线下区间盘整震荡本周以来逐渐回暖上升而上方有前期高点压力涨幅011报收于6338期权隐含波动率下降096报收于2038持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于047操作上建议PVC维持一周多以来20天均线以来窄幅区间盘整震荡逐渐回升PVC期权隐含波动率小幅波动持仓量PCR维持在较低水平构建卖出宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值若市场行情快速大涨或大跌突破区间上下限则平仓离场如V2305期权SV2305-P-610010SV2305-P-600010和SV2305-C-630010SV2305-C-6240010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿RURU23051254500-2000-016254331965MAMA23042614001000047201881PTATA2304549400160002919035213LPGPG230450940094001883833826LL2305819600200002268511000PPPP23057832003600046328012787PVCV2305633800700011766624266数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日RU23051250041900322001259722000175200672023-04-24MA230426005550345026211850071700152023-03-03TA23045500102008500551766001212300152023-03-03PG2304510085001720050135980121-8100192023-03-07L23058200183001880081953400042-100532023-04-10PP23057800180501710078102450031-2250532023-04-10V23056300196501615063353500056-300532023-04-10数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWRU2305216116552036-091222823132143MA2304206919802034035237227651979TA2304221820802165002258030632098PG2304267626912684-023303034032657L2305171515071616-014175318421664PP2305165214711553-051171218031622V2305212918872038-096228324052160数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化RU23051255840940330044430925703058-002MA23047176045371063-0046186435559057-003TA2304225903139136062-00813564787085064-005PG23041026610301100-014129838347064-004L23051148810509091-0111436811265078-008PP2305578269341200101642414696089-002V230524935150560600036457730280047-000数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1橡胶主力合约走势图14000成交量万6013500收盘价50130001256500401250030120002011500101100002022-10-102022-10-212023-02-032023-02-162022-08-082022-08-112022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-132022-10-182022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-122022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-082023-02-13图2甲醇主力合约走势图2900成交量万3002800收盘价2700225256900260015025002400752300220002022-08-112022-12-122023-02-132022-08-082022-08-162022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-192023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-16图3PTA主力合约走势图6500320成交量万收盘价60002405518005500160500080450002022-08-162022-12-122023-01-192022-08-082022-08-112022-08-192022-08-242022-08-292022-09-012022-09-062022-09-092022-09-152022-09-202022-09-232022-09-282022-10-102022-10-132022-10-182022-10-212022-10-262022-10-312022-11-032022-11-082022-11-112022-11-162022-11-212022-11-242022-11-292022-12-022022-12-072022-12-152022-12-202022-12-232022-12-282023-01-032023-01-062023-01-112023-01-162023-01-312023-02-032023-02-082023-02-132023-02-16标的价量关系图4LPG主力合约走势图600018成交量万收盘价165500141210500045960086450042400002022-10-262022-12-072023-01-192022-08-082022-08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