铜：美元指数走强，隔夜美股小幅上涨，有色金属普遍回落，昨日伦铜收跌1.66%至8868美元/吨，沪铜主力收至68240元/吨。产业层面，昨日LME库存增加2175至65975吨，注销仓单比例降低，Cash/3M贴水30.8美元/吨。国内方面，昨日上海地区现货基差涨至60元/吨，2302合约最后交易日月间价差仍大，盘面回升市场成交转弱。进出口方面，昨日铜现货进口亏损维持500元/吨左右，洋山铜溢价持平。废铜方面，昨日国内精废价差扩至1790元/吨，废铜替代优势提高。价格层面，美国通胀数据强于预期对市场冲击偏中性。海外铜矿供应干扰边际减轻，供应端忧虑有所缓解，海外库存去化或放缓。国内随着铜价回调和需求回暖，供应过剩格局缓解，短期价格预计将继续考验需求端支撑，若需求延续改善，铜价有望企稳。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考：67600-68800元/吨。
　　

研究报告全文：五矿期货商品研究有色金属早报20230216铜美元指数走强隔夜美股小幅上涨有色金属普遍回落昨日伦铜收跌166至8868美元吨沪铜主力收至68240元吨产业层面昨日LME库存增加2175至65975吨注销仓单比例降低Cash3M贴水308美元吨国内方面昨日上海地区现货基差涨至60元吨2302合约最后交易日月间价差仍大盘面回升市场成交转弱进出口方面昨日铜现货进口亏损维持500元吨有色金属小组左右洋山铜溢价持平废铜方面昨日国内精废价差扩至1790元吨废铜替代优势提高价格层面美国通胀数据强于预期对市场冲击偏中性海外铜矿供应干扰边际减轻供应端忧虑有吴坤金所缓解海外库存去化或放缓国内随着铜价回调和需求回暖供应过剩格局缓解短期价格预从业资格号F3036210计将继续考验需求端支撑若需求延续改善铜价有望企稳今日沪铜主力运行区间参考交易咨询号Z001592467600-68800元吨0755-23375135wkjwkqhcn铝2023年02月16日沪铝主力合约报收18270元吨截止昨日下午三点跌幅146SMM现王震宇货A00铝报均价18490元吨A00铝锭升贴水平均价-40铝期货仓单221154吨较前一日增加从业资格号F308252418363吨LME铝库存602150吨上升550吨2023年2月13日SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存0755-233751321218万吨较上周四库存增加28万吨较2月6上周一库存量增加75万吨较去年2月份历史同wangzywkqhcn期库存增加224万吨2023年1月份31天国内电解铝产量3418万吨环比下降06同比增长67日均产量环比下降642吨至1103万吨日沪铝预计震荡运行主力合约参考运行区间18200-18800钟靖从业资格号F30352670755-23375125zhongjwkqhcn锡2023年02月16日沪锡主力合约报收210350元吨下跌238截止昨日下午三点国内上期所期货注册仓单下降102吨现为8380吨LME库存增加15吨现为3145吨长江有色锡1的平均价为214000元吨上游云南40锡精矿报收199000元吨1月份国内精炼锡产量为11990吨较去年12月份环比减少2461同比减少11771月国内精炼锡产量实际表现低于预期沪锡震荡行情预计延续主力参考运行区间205000-220000镍周三LME镍库存减144吨Cash3M维持高贴水价格方面LME镍价格跌187沪镍主力合约跌103国内基本面方面周三现货价格报211000216500元吨俄镍现货对03合约升水降至5350元吨金川镍现货升水7650元吨进出口方面根据模型测算镍板进口盈亏平衡附近短期淡季弱需求现实下国内供应边际增长过剩压力不减镍铁方面印尼镍铁产量持续增长下总体供应维持平稳增长趋势综合来看季节性需求淡季继续影响短期镍铁和精炼镍实际基本面不锈钢需求方面上周无锡佛山社会库存小幅去库需求弱现实和经济回升预期博弈现货和期货主力合约价格震荡基差维持升水短期关注国内产业链需求回升拐点和淡季产业链弱需求现实博弈对原料价格影响中期关注中国和印尼中间品和镍板新增产能释放进度预计沪镍主力合约震荡走势为主运行区间参考180000225000元吨有色金属重要日常数据汇总表2023年2月15日日频数据2023年2月16日盘面数据LME库存库存增减注销仓单注销仓单库存Cash-3mSHFE库存库存增减期货库存库存增减SHFE持仓持仓增减现货升贴水1-4m价差现货比值3月期比值进口比值进口盈亏铜6597521751027515573075226509789913200411440424586647190170771770778619铝602150550148450246536502689847565221154183634971201808530110778770810732锌2507525068252722185010566928455632818884189620734410107517558252227铅2450023755375219412755086753837185265301222484971130857407438552337镍4656614440088612350033801042216033313077382052023年2月15日重要汇率利率美元兑人民币即期68451USDCNY即期686321个月美元LIBOR459003个月美元LIBOR487162023年2月16日无风险套利监控多空沪铜沪锌沪铝近月连一9224156连一连二20542162连二连三30439877近月连二255639100连一连三448788117近月连三4981007155铜LME铜库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价30000010040000120011000903500025000010001000080300007080090002000002500060200006008000150000501500070004010000400100000305000200600020050000050001050000010000-20040002022-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铜库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三持仓量SHFE收盘价2500002000065005300009000048000055008000020000015000430000450070000380000100001500003500330000600005000250028000050000100000230000150040000018000050030000500001300005000-5008000020000010000-150030000100002021-072022-092021-042021-052021-062021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铝LME铝库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价250000070140000350440012000030060390020000001000002505020080000340015000001504060000100290040000100000030502000024002000500000-5019001020000-1000040000-15014002023-012021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-02SHFE铝库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量270007000005000003000090065000025000250004000006002300060000020000550000210003000001500030050000019000100004500001700020000050000400000150003500000100000-30013000300000500011000250000010000-6009000200000锌LME锌库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价350000902000070049003000008060044001500070500250000390060100004002000005034003001500004029005000200301000002400100200500001900100005000-10014002021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE锌库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量20000070003000030000018000016002800028000050001600002600026000014000030001100240002400001200002200022000010000010002000020000060080000180001800001000600001600016000040000100300014000140000200001200012000005000-400100001000002022-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02铅LME铅库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价14000070250270013000120000601100020025001000005090001502300800004070002100500010060000303000501900400002010000170020000101000003000-5015002021-022021-032021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02SHFE铅库存期货库存SHFE期货库存增减现货升贴水连续-连三SHFE收盘价持仓量250000250002001700018000016000020000160002000001001500014000015000012000015000010000140001000005000-10010000013000800000-200600005000120005000040000-300110001000020000015000-4001000002021-082022-112021-042021-052021-062021-072021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-122023-012023-02镍LME镍库存注销仓单注销仓单库存LME库存增减Cash-3M3M-15MLME收盘价5700030000060800020005200060004700025000050150040004200010002000004020003700005003200015000030270002000022000100000204000-500170006000120005000010-1000800070000010000-1500沪伦比价铜铝进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价90060009001000400008508502000-10000800800-2000-2000750-3000-4000750-4000-6000700-5000700-8000650-10000-6000650-12000600-70002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11锌铅进口盈亏现货比价进口比价进口盈亏现货比价进口比价9502000105010001000100090000950-1000850-1000900-2000850-2000800-3000800-3000750-4000750-4000-5000700700-5000-6000650650-7000600-60002021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-112021-032021-072021-112022-032022-072022-11汇率利率美元兑人民币即期汇率在岸美元兑人民币即期汇率离岸1月libor3月libor607150694067306520631061002021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-022021-042021-052021-062021-072021-082021-092021-102021-112021-122022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092022-102022-112022-122023-012023-02