【基本面信息】
　　豆粕：2023年第6周，全国主要油厂大豆库存为548.12万吨，较上周减少81.97万吨；豆粕库存为60.49万吨，较上周增加16.47万吨；菜粕库存1.88万吨，较上周减少1.3万吨。大豆港口库存大幅回落，终端提货减少，蛋白粕库存增加。
　　大豆：对美豆而言，2月USDA供需报告中性略偏空。短期在主产国天气偏差背景下，仍需给予一定升水；且美豆出口向好，美豆粕大幅上涨，对美豆提振较强，短期预计维持高位。中期重点跟踪巴西收割进度，关注市场何时能感受到巴西丰产压力。
　　棕榈油：截至2023年2月10日，全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存约98.01万吨，较上周减少4.78万吨；全国重点地区豆油商业库存约79.05万吨，较上周减少0.86万吨；华东菜油库存12.58万吨，较上周增加0.87万吨。节后提货增加，油脂库存整体小幅回落。
　　棉花：USDA对22/23年度中国棉花消费量的逆势预增，2月月报中，全球棉花消费量延续下修趋势，从22年2月首次预估的2757.7万吨已经调降至2409.4万吨，主要原因在于欧美发达经济体增速下行的背景下纺织服装消费正在经历骤降，反观USDA对中国棉花消费的预估，自12月防疫政策优化以来首次上调10.9万吨至783.8万吨。

研究报告全文：农产品期权日报期权研究2023年2月16日星期四基本面信息豆粕2023年第6周全国主要油厂大豆库存为54812万吨较上周减少8197万吨豆粕库存为6049万吨较上周增加1647万吨菜粕库存188万吨较上周减少13万吨大豆港口库存大幅回落终端提货减少蛋白粕库存增加大豆对美豆而言2月USDA供需报告中性略偏空短期在主产国天气偏差背景下仍需给予一定升水且美豆出口向好美豆粕大幅上涨对美豆提振较强短期预计维持高位中期重点跟踪巴西收割进度关注市场何时能卢品先感受到巴西丰产压力棕榈油截至2023年2月10日全国重点地区棕榈油商业库存约9801万吨较上周减少478万吨全国重点地投研经理区豆油商业库存约7905万吨较上周减少086万吨华东菜油库存1258万吨较上周增加087万吨节后提货增0755-23375252加油脂库存整体小幅回落lupxwkjyqhcom棉花USDA对2223年度中国棉花消费量的逆势预增2月月报中全球棉花消费量延续下修趋势从22年2月首次预估的27577万吨已经调降至24094万吨主要原因在于欧美发达经济体增速下行的背景下纺织服装消费正在经从业资格号历骤降反观USDA对中国棉花消费的预估自12月防疫政策优化以来首次上调109万吨至7838万吨F3047321交易咨询号期权分析及策略建议Z00155411玉米期权玉米C2305上周以来连续下跌回落先后跌破21天均线和55天均线形成上方有压力的弱势偏空头本周以来超跌反弹连续大幅上涨而上方有前期高点压力跌幅011报收于2847期权隐含波动率下降027报收于1054期权持仓量PCR小幅波动报收于121操作建议玉米C2305经过前一周连续空头下跌先后跌破21天均线和55天均线后在空头压力线下弱势盘整震荡而后止跌反弹回暖上升而中期趋势仍向下期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR小幅上升构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如C2305SC2305-P-282010SC2305-P-284010和SC2305-C-286010SC2305-C-2880102豆粕期权豆粕M2205延续一个多月以来围绕着20天均线上下宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡下有55天均线支撑上有前期高点压力跌幅101报收于3816豆粕期权隐含波动率下降008报收于1664期权持仓量PCR持续下降报收于184操作建议豆粕维持一个多月以来矩形区间盘整震荡的市场行情走势形态昨日大幅下跌夜盘延续回落形成短期偏空弱势格局期权隐含波动率小幅下降期权持仓量PCR仍维持较高位构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情急速大涨或大跌则逐渐平仓离场如M2305SM2305-P-380010SM2305-P-375010和SM2305-C-390010SM2305-C-3850103棕榈油期权棕榈油P2305逐渐形成下降三角收敛的市场行情形态上周以来止跌反弹回升连续报收阳线而后上升受阻回落延续弱势偏空市场行情跌幅106报收于7816期权隐含波动率小幅上升003报收于2535持仓量PCR报收于058操作建议棕榈油P2305前一周止跌反弹回暖上升后上周以来延续温和上涨后受阻回落维持弱势偏空的市场行情格局形态上形成下降三角收敛期权隐含波动率窄幅波动持仓量PCR维持至较低水平构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情快速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如P2305SP2305-P-780010SP2305-P-770010和SP2305-C-780010SP2305-C-7900104白糖期权白糖SR305经过前两周以来的多头上涨后上周以来高位宽幅矩形区间盘整震荡夜盘跳空低开大幅下跌跌幅091报收于5882期权隐含波动率下降015至1062期权持仓量PCR报收于077操作建议白糖SR2305超跌反弹回冷暖上升后连续近三周以来的多头上涨趋势上周以来突破上涨后高位盘整昨日冲高回落夜盘跳空低开大幅度下跌期权隐含波动率小幅波动期权持仓量PCR持续上升构建卖出偏空头的看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情极速大跌则逐渐平仓离场如SR305SSR305P580010SSR305P570010和SSR305C600010SSR305C5900105棉花期权棉花CF305维持两个月以来的多头上涨趋势本月高位回落后连续报收阴线而后低位弱势盘整震荡行情格局涨幅000报收于14365棉花期权隐含波动率上升014报收于1855持仓量PCR小幅上升报收于066操作建议棉花CF305延续近两周以来的弱势偏空头市场行情形态棉花期权隐含波动率小幅上升持仓量PCR维持较低水平构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如CF2305SCF2305P14200SCF2305P14400和SCF2305C14800SCF2305C14600市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿CC2305284700-300-01118815361MM2305381600-3900-101812031305PP2305781600-8400-106715456523SRSR2305588200-5400-091297017628CFCF23051436500000000478834387RMRM2305315200-4200-131559817882数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日C23052840480042002846-550-019-100542023-04-10M230538001170075503842-4300-1112550542023-04-10P2305780032300274007849-6450-0823300542023-04-10SR23055900925087005906-1750-0302350502023-04-06CF2305144003310038800143432900020-2200502023-04-06RM230531501060079003177-5400-1672500502023-04-06数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWC2305103710721054-027120713901025M2305170816251664-008199623881604P2305261324502535003301233202704SR2305106710551062-015123814281048CF2305199117181855014213624901782RM2305202520522039009240928391979数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化C23051875518482099-038119707144699121001M23054927956162114014116875215115184-014P23052044318510091-0055818633665058-000SR23053691126845073-0258499265455077002CF2305523295181009900114308394323066000RM23051442915539108-0432437932794135-013数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1玉米主力合约走势图3000602950成交量万收盘价290028460050285040280027503027002650202600102550250002022-09-302022-12-192022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15图2豆粕主力合约走势图4600200成交量万收盘价440016042001204000383800803800360040340002022-09-192022-11-022022-12-092023-01-182022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15图3白糖主力合约走势图600059070050成交量万收盘价59004058005700305600205500105400530002022-10-172022-12-272022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15图4棉花主力合约走势图16100100成交量万收盘价15600151008014350001460060141001360040131001260020121001160002022-09-302022-12-192022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15图5菜粕主力合约走势图3600成交量万收盘价1203400100317400320080300060280040260020240002022-10-202022-12-302022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15图6棕榈油主力合约走势图9000150成交量万收盘价8500120800090750060700030650002022-10-122022-12-222022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-08-312022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-062022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-102023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部玉米期权持仓分布玉米期权持仓分布图玉米期权持仓变化图3000015002500010002000050015000010000-50050000-1000252029602320236024002440248025202560260026402680272027602800284028802920296030003080316032403320340034802320236024002440248025602600264026802720276028002840288029203000308031603240332034003480OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC玉米期权最大未平仓玉米认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价3200310030002900280027002600250024002022-08-312022-12-062023-01-102022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15玉米期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓玉米期权持仓量PCR玉米期权隐含波动率2003000OIPCRCLOSE22295018020290018160285016140280028460027501412027001210026501026008080255006025002022-10-202022-08-052022-08-152022-08-232022-08-312022-09-082022-09-192022-09-272022-10-122022-10-282022-11-072022-11-152022-11-232022-12-012022-12-092022-12-192022-12-272023-01-052023-01-132023-01-302023-02-072023-02-152023-02-072022-08-172022-08-292022-09-082022-09-212022-10-102022-10-202022-11-012022-11-112022-11-232022-12-052022-12-152022-12-272023-01-092023-01-192022-08-05IMPVMA20UPLOW豆粕期权持仓分布豆粕期权持仓分布图豆粕期权持仓变化图350002500200030000150025000100020000500015000-50010000-1000-15005000-20000-250043502950275028502950305031503250335034503550365037503850395040504150425044504550275028503050315032503350345035503650375038503950405041504250435044504550OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC豆粕期权最大未平仓豆粕认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价480044004000360032002022-08-312022-12-062023-01-102022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15豆粕期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓豆粕期权持仓量PCR豆粕期权隐含波动率3404400OIPCR4035300CLOSE4200303838002604000252022038001518036001014034002022-10-202022-08-052022-08-152022-08-232022-08-312022-09-082022-09-192022-09-272022-10-122022-10-282022-11-072022-11-152022-11-232022-12-012022-12-092022-12-192022-12-272023-01-052023-01-132023-01-302023-02-072023-02-152023-02-072022-08-172022-08-292022-09-082022-09-212022-10-102022-10-202022-11-012022-11-112022-11-232022-12-052022-12-152022-12-272023-01-092023-01-192022-08-05IMPVMA20UPLOW白糖期权持仓分布白糖期权持仓分布图白糖期权持仓变化图2000010001800080016000600140001200040010000200800006000-20040002000-4000-6004800500052005400560058006000620064006600680048005000520054005600580060006200640066006800OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC白糖期权最大未平仓白糖认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价6800660064006200600058005600540052002022-08-312022-12-062023-01-102022-08-052022-08-102022-08-152022-08-182022-08-232022-08-262022-09-052022-09-082022-09-142022-09-192022-09-222022-09-272022-09-302022-10-122022-10-172022-10-202022-10-252022-10-282022-11-022022-11-072022-11-102022-11-152022-11-182022-11-232022-11-282022-12-012022-12-092022-12-142022-12-192022-12-222022-12-272022-12-302023-01-052023-01-132023-01-182023-01-302023-02-022023-02-072023-02-102023-02-15白糖期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓白糖期权持仓量PCR白糖期权隐含波动率080OIPCR590700600020CLOSE07059001806058001605057001404056001203055001002054002022-10-202022-08-052022-08-152022-08-232022-08-312022-09-082022-09-192022-09-272022-10-122022-10-282022-11-072022-11-152022-11-232022-12-012022-12-092022-12-192022-12-272023-01-052023-01-132023-01-302023-02-072023-02-152023-02-072022-08-172022-08-292022-09-082022-09-212022-10-102022-10-202022-11-0120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