研究报告全文：银河期货PVC周报能化投资研究部周琴投资咨询资格证号Z00159432023年02月13日银河能化微信公众号概述项目基本面及变化上周PVC上游去库062万吨至647万吨同比增加107社会库存环比下降03万吨至444万吨同比增加34华东及华南部分样本仓库存在满库停装现象所库存以样本仓库库存环比略降2023年1月份PVC产量1928万吨环比增加78同比增加25上周PVC开工环比上升052个百分点至7903其中电石法开工环比上升017个百分点至产量7733乙烯法开工环比上升187个百分点上周电石价格下跌乌海电石价格下跌27至3550元吨山东电石下跌24至4030元吨电石利润下降40元吨至-72元吨电石开工环比上升016个百分点电石至7646兰炭上周兰炭价格下降45至1485元吨精煤价格下跌68至1001元吨兰炭利润上升47元吨至-237元吨兰炭开工上升065个百分点至55172022年12月PVC粉出口126万吨环比增加488同比下降3462022年PVC粉出口1966万吨同比增加121进出口2023年1月4日台塑公布2月预售报价环比上涨70-90美元吨CFR印度930美元吨FOB至东南亚875美元吨FOB东北亚至越南840美元吨3月份的预售报价将在未来1-2周内宣布预计将增加50至100美元吨上周PVC生产企业对外出口签单环比增加至19万吨待交付量减少至17万吨货源交付量在29万吨价格商谈走软成交还盘价格看地在840-880美元吨FOB实单商谈外盘价格上周PVC外盘价格基本持稳印度CFR维持945美元吨东南亚CFR维持910美元吨西北欧离岸价维持940美元吨美国出口价格持稳830美元吨12月PVC消费174万吨环比增长46同比增长112022年PVC消费量2024万吨同比下降27需求12月PVC地板出口371万吨环比增加82同比下降3172022年PVC地板出口5071万吨同比下降115其中出口至美国的地板252万吨占比50上周PVC下游制品企业开工率在4557环比增加1001同比增加2728成本利润上周电石利润下降40元吨至-72元吨兰炭利润上升47元吨至-237元吨山东外购电石法利润上涨115元吨至-860元吨一体化利润基本持稳-760元吨期现价差上周PVC呈震荡走势主力合约周度上涨032至6240华东现货周度下跌016至612005基差走弱30至-1265-9价差涨6至-27估值看外购电石法利润亏损绝对价格低位估值依旧较低驱动上上周PVC产业小幅去库但社会库存有因为样本库满库停装而转至非主流库的现象库观点存绝对水平依旧在历史同期高位库存压力大开工环比提升下游制品开工从春节后逐步提升到3月中左右才能恢复至相对较高的开工水平PVC现实大概率继续走弱估值低现实弱短期震荡偏弱GALAXYFUTURES1期现价差PVC05季节性PVC05PVC常州SG-5合约持仓量1300016000100012000900140001100080010000700120009000600100008000500400700080003006000200600050001004000004000520620720820920102011201220120220320420112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121PVC1705PVC1805PVC1905PVC2005201420152016201720182017201820192020PVC2105PVC2205PVC230520192020202120222023202120222023PVC05基差PVC5-9价差30008002500600200040015002001000500002001334435350022920114124118217319418105111912195206207208209201020112012201202203204201020PVC1905-PVC1909PVC2005-PVC2009PVC2105-PVC2109PVC1905PVC2005PVC2105PVC2205PVC2305PVC2205-PVC2209PVC2305-PVC2309资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES2利润兰炭利润电石利润西北外购电石PVC生产利润140030003000120025002000100020008001000600150040010000200500-100000-200-2000-400-500-600-1000-3000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820192015201620172018201920152016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023西北自产电石法生产利润山东外购电石法PVC生产利润山东氯碱一体化利润4000300040003000200030002000100020001000010000-10000-1000-2000-1000-2000-3000-2000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201520162017201820192015201620172018201920152016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES3利润华东进口乙烯法PVC生产利润华东进口VCM法生产利润PVC出口东南亚利润电石法10000600050090005000400800040003007000300020060002000100500010000400003000-1002000-1000-2001000-2000-3000-3000-400-1000-4000-50011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120152016201720182019201520162017201820192016201720182019202020212022202320202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES4库存PVC上游库存PVC上游预售PVC仓单700080120060007010005000608005060040004040030003020020002000010001011213141516171819110111112100002011201220132014201511213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120162017201820192020201920202021202220232020202120222023202120222023PVC社会库存华东华南卓创PVC华东社会库存卓创PVC华南社会库存卓创500040001800450035001600400030001400350012003000250010002500200080020001500150060010001000400500500200000000000112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121201420152016201720182014201520162017201820142015201620172018201920202021202220232019202020212022202320192020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES5PVC新增产能PVC2022-2023年新装置企业产能工艺投产时间内蒙宜化5电石法2022年1月天津大沽80乙烯法2022年1月40万吨4月40万吨德州实华20姜钟法2022年5月青岛海湾20乙烯法2022年9月聚隆化工40乙烯法2022年6月29日投产11月有量销售广西华谊氯碱化工40乙烯法2022年11月27日后试车山东信发40电石法2022年11月21日试车2022年合计245金泰化学30电石法2023年6月试车万华化学福建一期40乙烯法2023年年中试车镇洋发展30乙烯法2023年下半年2023年合计100资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES6产量开工PVC产量季节性PVC粉开工率电石法PVC粉开工率21090009500900020085008500190800080001807500750017070007000160650065001506000600011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112114012345678910111220172018201920202017201820192020201820192020202120222023202120222023202120222023乙烯法PVC粉开工率电石开工与PVC开工率95009509000900850085080008007500750700070065006506000600550055050001121314151617181911011111212020352020552020952021352021552021752021952022152022552022752023152020752021152022352022952021115202211520172018201920202020115202120222023电石开工率电石法PVC开工率资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES7分项开工资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES8电石乌海电石山东电石90009000800080007000700060006000500050004000400030003000200020001000100001121314151617181911011111211121314151617181911011111212016201720182019201620172018201920202021202220232020202120222023电石利润电石开工率卓创300095025009002000850150080010007505007000650600-500550-100011213141516171819110111112150011213141516171819110111112120152016201720182019201920202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES9兰炭兰炭市场价中料神木精煤块价格38501800335016001400285012002350100018508001350600400850200350011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120162017201820192015201620172018201920202021202220232020202120222023兰炭利润兰炭开工率1400070120006510000608000556000504002000450040-200035-400030-6000251121314151617181911011111210202015201620172018201911213141516171819110111112120202021202220232020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES10外盘PVC外盘投产PVC外盘价格企业国家产能工艺投产时间2400韩华韩国13乙烯法2020年Q12200Engro巴基斯坦10乙烯法2020年Q3信越美国29乙烯法2020年2000Inovyn欧洲20乙烯法2020年1800Inovyn欧洲12乙烯法2020年1600Shintech美国29乙烯法2020年14002020年合计1131200台塑美国14乙烯法2021年年底10002021年合计14800Sulfindo印尼265乙烯法2022年上半年600已于2022年3月份启动Anyer新增的年产20Asahimas印尼20乙烯法万吨PVC工厂外采氯乙烯EGA阿联酋20乙烯法2022年2021112021212021312021412021512021612021712021812021912022112022212022312022412022512022612022712022812022912023112023212021101202111120211212022101202211120221212022年合计665西北欧离岸价东南亚CFR中国CFR美国海湾FAS印度CFR资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES11台塑预售报价台塑-CFR印度台塑-CFR中国20001800180016001600140014001200120010001000800800600600010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023台塑-FOB东北亚至东南亚台塑-FOB东北亚至越南1800180016001600140014001200120010001000800800600600010203040506070809101112010203040506070809101112201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES12进出口PVC出口季节性PVC净进口季节性30520255102050155-10105-2055-3005123456789101112123456789101112201420152016201720182017201820192020202120222019202020212022PVC进口季节性PVC出口东南亚利润电石法20500184001630014200121001008-1006-2004-3002-4000-50012345678910111211213141516171819110111112120142015201620172018201620172018201920192020202120222020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES13需求PVC需求季节性200190180170160150140130120123456789101112201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES14制品出口PVC铺地制品出口PVC制品出口PVC铺地制品-出口至美国60007000400035005000600030005000400025004000300020003000150020002000100010001000500000000000123456789101112123456789101112123456789101112201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022201720182019202020212022资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES15房地产房地产数据1200030大中城市商品房成交面积当周值30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值一线城市100007001808000160600060014040005002000120000400100-200080300-400060-600020040100202016-062019-062022-062014-022014-062014-102015-022015-062015-102016-022016-102017-022017-062017-102018-022018-062018-102019-022019-102020-022020-062020-102021-022021-062021-102022-02商品房销售面积累计同比房屋新开工面积累计同比00112131415161718191101111121112131415161718191101111121房屋竣工面积累计同比本年购置土地面积累计同比20172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023房屋施工面积累计同比30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值二线城市30大中城市商品房成交面积当周值三线城市40025035020030025015020010015010050500011213141516171819110111112111213141516171819110111112120172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023资料来源卓创隆众银河期货GALAXYFUTURES16周琴能化投资研究部从业资格号F3076447投资咨询从业证书号Z0015943电话021-65789376电邮zhouqinqhchinastockcomcn上海市虹口区东大名路501号上海白玉兰广场28层28thFloorNo501DongDaMingRoadSinarMasPlazaHongkouDistrictShanghaiChina全国统一客服热线400-886-7799公司网址wwwyhqhcomcn银河期货微信公众号下载银河期货APP