■事件:公司发布2022年度业绩预告,公司预计实现归母净利润34.2-40.2亿元，同增90%-123%，扣非归母净利润32.1-38.0亿元，同增107%-146%。其中2022Q4归母净利润10.2-16.2亿元,同增57% -150%,环增-10%-43%，扣非归母净利润9.7-15.6亿元，同增69%-171%，环增-11% -43%。公司2022Q4电站及资产类计提减值损失8-9亿元，汇兑损失约2亿元，硅料硅片等投资收益约8-10亿元，基本对冲减值及汇兑损失，若考虑减值冲回，业绩略超市场预期。
　　■Q4组件出货高增、单瓦利润再创新高!我们预计公司2022年组件出货约43GW，同增约75%，其中2022Q4出货13GW,我们测算单瓦盈利9分/W左右，环比提升1分，贡献11-12亿元利润，单瓦盈利创新高,主要在于硅料硅片降价及运费下降。2023年公司预计组件出货60-65GW，同增50%，看好盈利继续提升:①受益上游原材料价格快速下降，在手高价订单带来盈利提升;②我们预计2023年公司TOPCon出货20GW左右,享受新技术溢价;③硅片产能扩张带来一体化率提升,成本有望下降，推动组件量利双升!
　　■分布式系统高盈利、储能开始放量扭亏为盈!我们预计2022年公司分布式系统出货6-6.5GW,其中2022Q4出货2GW+,单瓦盈利维持约0.16元/W，贡献2-3亿元利润; 2023年组件降价，分布式收益率提升，市.场进一步扩大，我们预计公司开发9-10GW,同增45%+。支架2022年出货4.3-4.5GW,其中跟踪支架1.7-1.8GW,占比约为40%，2022Q4支架出货约1.3-1.5GW，盈亏平衡;我们预计2023年出货7-8GW，同比翻倍增长。公司储能以国内大储为主，2022Q4上量迅速，出货约1.5GWh，扭亏为盈，我们预计2022年出货1.8-2GWh,2023年国内海外齐发力，我们预计出货3-4GWh，可实现盈利贡献。
　　■盈利预测与投资评级:基于公司组件出货高增，户用分布式高盈利，储能业务放量，我们上调2022-2024年公司盈利预测，我们预计公司2022-2024年归母净利润为37.5/71.4/96.5亿元，(前值为37.0/66.1/90.6亿元)，同比+108%/+90%/+35%，基于公司光伏龙头地位，同时储能业务发力，我们给予公司2023年30倍PE,对应目标价98.7元，维持“买入”评级。
　　■风险提示:政策不及预期，竞争加剧等。.

研究报告全文：EquityResearchCompanyResearchPVEquipmentTrinaSolar688599TableMain2022earningsestimatequicktakeTrinaSolarsTableAuthor30January2023profitandPVmoduleshipmentswereontheriseResearchAnalystResearchAnalystin22Q4andthetrendwilllikelycontinuein2023RuibinChenXxxBuyMaintain8523982321285230000000chenrobindwzqcomhkXxxdwzqcomhkForecastValuation2021A2022E2023E2024ERevenueRMBmn4448091585123644154793GrowthYoY511063525PriceTableMovementPicQuoteNetprofitRMBmn1804374871369648GrowthYoY471089035TrinaSolarCSI300EPSRMB0831733294453124PEX178618414921791612103InvestmentThesis-4-11-18nEventTrinaSolarTSreleasedits2022earningsestimateTSs2022profitincreased-25-32by90-123YoYtoRmb342-402bnandits22Q4profitincreasedby57-150YoY20220110202205112022090920230108-10-43QoQtoRmb102-162bnTSsassetpowerstationimpairmentlosswasRmb800-900mnandexchangelosswasaboutRmb200mnin22Q4TSsinvestmentTableBaseincomefromsiliconwaferswasaboutRmb08-1bnwhichbasicallyoffsetsitsMarketDataimpairmentandexchangelossesClosingpriceRMB7168nTSsPVmoduleshipmentsincreasedrapidlyandtheprofitperwattreachedanewhighWeestimatethatTSsPVmoduleshipmentshaveincreasedby75YoYto43GW52-weekRangeRMB42828833in2022andreached13GWin22Q4WeestimatethattheprofitperwatthasincreasedPBX637by001RmbWQoQto009RmbWbringingprofitofRmb11-12bnin22Q4TheFloatingMarketCap9492287recordprofitperwattwasmainlyduetothereductioninpolysiliconwaferpricesandRMBmnfreightratesTSexpectthatitsPVmoduleshipmentswillincreaseby50YoYto60-65GWin2023WeareoptimisticaboutTSsprofitabilityin20231Highly-pricedBasicDataexistingordersandrapidlydecreasingrawmaterialpriceswillhelpimproveprofitability2WeexpectTSsTOPConcellstoshipabout20GWin2023andenjoyanewBVPSdataRMB1125technologypremium3WafercapacityexpansionhelpsreducecostsLiabilitiesAssets6979nTSsdistributedsystemishighlyprofitableandenergystoragebusinesshasbegunTotalIssuedSharesmn216933toturnlossesintoprofitsWeexpectthatTSsdistributedsystemhasshipped6-65GW132426in2022and2GWin22Q4withprofitperwattat016RmbWWiththeexpectedSharesOutstandingmndeclineofPVmodulepricesin2023IRRofdistributedPVsystemwilllikelyincreaseTableRelatedReportreportsWeexpectthatTSsdistributedPVsystemshipmentwillincreaseby45YoYto9-10GWTSssolarpanelmountshaveshipped43-45GWin2022ofwhich17-18GW234566885997202289oftrackingmountsWeexpectthatTSssolarpanelmountshipmentswillincreaseby7ABCDE100YoYto7-8GWin2023TSsenergystoragebusinessmainlyengagesinthefieldofdomesticlarge-scaleenergystorageTSsenergystorageproductshipmentsin2022FGHI8JBKLMwere18-2GWhandin22Q4quicklyreachedalargevolumeofabout15GWhturning2022-10-31lossesintoprofitsWeexpectthatTSsenergystorageproductsshipmentswillbeabout23456688599720228N3-4GWhin2023generatingpositiveprofitsnEarningsForecastRatingWemaintainBuyratingwithTPatRmb9877OPQRSTGUVcorrespondingtoPEratioat30xin2023consideringTSsquicklyincreasingCDWIMshipmentsofPVmodulesandenergystorageproductsWereviseupTSsearning2022-08-26forecastandexpectthatthenetprofitwillincreaseby1089035YoYtoRmb375714965bnpreviousvalueatRmb370661906bnin202220232024SoochowSecuritiesInternationalrespectivelyBrokerageLimitedwouldliketonRisksWeaker-than-expectedpolicysupportintensifiedmarketcompetitionacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstituteandinparticularitsemployeesDuohongZengYaochenandYananGuo16-01-688599TableMain2022Q4-012TableAuthor20230130342356783--9012Xxx8523982321285230000000chenrobindwzqcomhkXxxdwzqcomhk2021A2022E2023E2024E-01444809158512364415479323511063525-TablePicQuote456789-01180437487136964823471089035-AB-01083173329445PE-CDAB18618414921791612XYZ1nP720228VabcGbdefghiBj342-402klGmT90-123GnoghiBj321-380klGmTpqNghiBjklGmTG107-1462022Q4102-16257-150T-10-43GnoghiBj97-156klGmT69-171GT-11-43p2022Q4rstYuvdwxyz8-9klGz2klGXY8-10klGxytTableBase01zGxyGVabp2l7168nQ4OPQRSTBjSbd20228OPQR8343S4282883343GWGmT75GqN2022Q4QR13GWGABi63790WGwL10G11-12klBjGABSGZtp20238bdOPQR56A-y7949228760-65GWGmT50GHIABDwL78lGSABwLbd20238TOPCon901QR20GWGu6wLGGOPJBKL-iYul1125n0SAB6JAbd202280Y6979QR6-65GWGqN2022Q4QR2GWGABC016-78-216933lWG2-3klBj20238OPG0wLG56A-78132426GbdGmTp89-10GW452022-QR43-45GWGqN17-18GWG40G2022Q4QRGAbd8QRGmTableAReport13-15GW20237-8GWTp6GJGQR2022Q423456688599720228915GWhGAGbd20228QR18-2GWhG20238GbdQR3-4GWhGefABp7ABCDEFGHI8JBKLMnABbXY7OPQRSTG0SABG6VJG2022-20248ABbGbd2022-10-312022-20248ghiBj375714965klGy37066190623456688599720228NklGm1089035G5Gm6V7OPQRSTGUVG2023830PEG987lGCCDWIMp2022-08-26nw7tbGpBCDEFGHIAJcKVAL0MCGNqOEPQRSTLUVWXYp26-01Table345678YemeiFTableFinance34569ZbYu78l2021A2022E2023E2024EBj78l2021A2022E2023E2024E5Yu418616598081760100957V4448091585123644154793f11120556422891961xV381918030810557213149713016271783501044706Vta137412556697bR12754246763359441050cd1408265634624179qe5Yu497185621086713240fg1483238133384102o5Yu21679256053052335486925148422262631-hXY2048204820482048Z289525368359ijYu13416165742046124819Yuxyz396512740990klm1165189929403564XYi5281328866774noYu894894894894qe167321396464qeo5Yu4156419041804161Yupq-86-476-247-232Yud6354091585112284136443VBj22614480839611344535049594357296687490Vi13-73-2rs9005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